Peterson Institute

US real exports to China of goods & services fell by 19% in 2025, to their lowest level in more than a decade. Without Trump’s trade wars since 2017, US exports to China would have been nearly 60% higher in 2025, or roughly $90 billion annually. More: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

The flurry of trade agreements the EU has recently struck or continues to negotiate send a powerful geopolitical signal that participating countries want to trade & cooperate on predictable, rule-based terms as defined in legal, transparent documents. piie.com/blogs/realtime…

Trump & his team have come up with two alternative legal strategies to impose tariffs now that the Supreme Court invalidated his first approach with IEEPA. Alan Wm. Wolff explains how they plans to do it, & why it will not work. piie.com/blogs/realtime…

WATCH: @AdamPosen discusses on @TheNationalNews what the Iran conflict means for the US economy, geopolitical stability, & more. youtube.com/watch?v=v4ua1k…

US imports from the world held up in 2025, rising 4% in real terms compared to 2024. Meanwhile, real US imports from China dropped by 28% in 2025. Learn more: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

“The US is the largest oil & gas producer in the world, & so relatively insulated,” @jfkirkegaard says. But many other countries feel, "not for the first time, they are bearing political & economic consequences of decisions to go to war taken by the US."washingtonpost.com/world/2026/03/…

Before Trump’s first trade war started in 2018, 22% of US goods imports were from China. By the end of 2025, China’s share had fallen to 9%. Learn more: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

Can the EU lead a new world order in trade? The EU needs to become stronger economically while ensuring that its new emphasis on industrial policy does not become a tool to discriminate against economic partners. By @MalmstromEU: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

What does China’s property market downturn mean for its economic future? Moderated by CCA Fellow @wstv_lizzi, the latest "Year of Rebalancing" episode features Tianlei Huang, Senior Fellow at @PIIE, and @acollier, former President of Bank of China International (USA), on how property shapes China’s macroeconomy and its shift to domestic demand ⬇️

The empirical foundation for employers to pay $100k for each new H-1B worker does not survive close examination, & the choice of instrument raises concerns. The evidence calls for revisiting both magnitude & design of this unprecedented policy experiment.piie.com/blogs/realtime…

Check out my contribution to this stellar @DigiChn collection of short essays on China's latest five year plan and what it means for Beijing's approach to AI. Mine covers some interesting similarities (and one key difference) between US and Chinese plans for AI. Give it a read! digichina.substack.com/p/forum-techno…

Given Trump’s disdain of G20 practices & themes, it’s reasonable to ask whether assembled leaders will project a semblance of unity or devolve into acrimony only a month after the US congressional elections. piie.com/blogs/realtime…

New evidence suggests India misestimated its annual economic growth rate during the past two decades. Rather than growing at a stable rate, it boomed during the early 2000s, then decelerated after the global financial crisis & subsequent domestic shocks. piie.com/publications/w…

The EU & its economic partners have a window of opportunity to lead on a new path of updated multilateralism. Bilateral & regional trade agreements can lead to rules that help countries diversifying, "derisking" & increasing value chain resilience. piie.com/blogs/realtime…

The only public analysis justifying the $100k H-1B tax rests on several incorrect & highly idiosyncratic analytical choices. These problems go beyond differences of interpretation. They undermine the entire economic justification for the migration tariff.piie.com/blogs/realtime…

Trump & his team have come up with two alternative legal strategies to impose tariffs now that the Supreme Court invalidated his first approach with IEEPA. Alan Wm. Wolff explains how they plans to do it, & why it will not work. piie.com/blogs/realtime…

As climate change mitigation loses favor in the White House, reducing risks from global warming has fallen to communities. Organizations like the Gulf of Maine Research Institute are taking matters into their own hands. Here or wherever you get podcasts: piie.com/experts/podcas…

China’s trade surplus has further to rise & will increasingly take sales away from producers in the rest of the world, especially advanced European & Asian economies. Fasten your seat belts for the next China shock, @GagnonMacro & Tamim Bayoumi write: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

WATCH: @AdamPosen discusses on @TheNationalNews what the Iran conflict means for the US economy, geopolitical stability, & more. youtube.com/watch?v=v4ua1k…

Most European leaders believe there's no military solution to the Iran conflict, even with naval escorts, @jfkirkegaard says. They want "a negotiated solution...Trump accepting that he has to cut his losses, that he cannot gain" from continuing the war. afr.com/world/middle-e…