Peterson Institute

A one-third reduction in US STEM graduates from abroad, sustained over ten years, would result in a smaller US economy than otherwise—equivalent to losing an economy the size of Wisconsin or Utah annually. By @m_clem, @AmyMNice, & @JeremyLNeufeld: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

Today’s global AI winners could become tomorrow’s AI losers, Monica de Bolle warns. “Americans have reason to be more alarmed than others...Because the investment boom is happening here to an extent that is not happening elsewhere.” san.com/cc/will-ai-dri…

Ending the USMCA & imposing 15% tariffs on goods from Canada & Mexico would raise US consumer prices significantly. piie.com/blogs/realtime…

The primary domains for Treasury & Fed liquidity support should be distinct, & overstepping the boundary too frequently & too far carries significant risks to the independence of US monetary policy & the international role of the US dollar. piie.com/publications/p…

Among the many grievances cited in the Declaration of Independence in 1776 was the American colonists’ complaint about Britain’s “cutting off our trade with all parts of the world.” @D_A_Irwin explores the history of Americans arguing about trade: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

Q: If the US opens more lawful immigration channels for labor in lower-skill sectors like construction, care work, & food production, what happens to Americans who already hold jobs in the same industries? A: More Americans gain jobs. Read more: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

A one-third reduction in US STEM graduates from abroad, sustained over ten years, would result in a smaller US economy than otherwise—equivalent to losing an economy the size of Wisconsin or Utah annually. By @m_clem, @AmyMNice, & @JeremyLNeufeld: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

US states are at different levels of economic risk if the USMCA is terminated & Canada & Mexico impose retaliatory tariffs on US exports. 9/10 states with the highest share of exports to Canada & Mexico as a share of the state's total exports voted for Trump in 2024. #PIIECharts

Firms that can employ more H-2B workers in low-skill jobs from the visa lottery increase their production, investment, & profits. Restrictions on H-2B hiring either do not affect or reduce employment of low-skill US workers. piie.com/publications/w…

China's manufacturing trade surplus & export strength, particularly in low-skill-intensive sectors such as apparel, footwear, & leather is producing a "China Squeeze"—limiting the traditional pathways to economic development for poorer countries. #PIIECharts

The IMF won't talk about some economic vulnerabilities outright for the same reason the Fed won’t, Monica de Bolle says. “But the very fact that an AI market correction is now driving down their projections suggests to me that internally...there is a fear.”san.com/cc/will-ai-dri…

Predictability disappears in a world of annual USMCA reviews. How will business react? Experience shows firms will raise prices to cover interruption risk, Gary Hufbauer warns. Gains from smooth, reliable North American supply chains may become a relic. ca.news.yahoo.com/trumps-cusma-t…

Ending the USMCA & imposing 15% tariffs on goods from Canada & Mexico would raise US consumer prices significantly. piie.com/blogs/realtime…

If oil prices stay around $120/barrel + rises in LNG, refined petroleum, & fertilizer prices for a year, global growth would slow, with economic effects spread unevenly. Emerging economies would be hit harder than advanced economies. #PIIECharts

The American economy has grown in its 250 years through its sustained excellence in promoting change. If it does not change course now, the country will find itself increasingly bypassed in commerce & technology, @AdamPosen writes. piie.com/commentary/op-…

Does President Trump want a trade war with Spain? What if it escalates to one with the full European Union? Thanks to @MugoOdigwe for the invitation to join @CBSNews to discuss the President's latest trade threats taking place at the NATO meeting in Ankara.

Learn more: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

The USMCA is still in effect, but the Trump administration's refusal to renew makes its future unclear. Ending the deal & imposing 15% tariffs on imports from Mexico & Canada would raise US consumer prices significantly. ➡️27% of US goods imports come from Mexico & Canada. The share of US goods imports from Mexico & Canada is much higher in some sectors: 🚚96% for motor vehicles for goods transport 🔥95% for petroleum gases & other gaseous hydrocarbons (natural gas) 🛢️67% for petroleum oils (crude oil) 🥶58% for some models of air conditioners 🛠️56% for auto parts Calculations show that 15% tariffs on Mexico & Canada could increase personal consumption expenditures by 0.27%... 💡...which is likely an underestimate, because intermediate goods & indirect effects are not included. 🚗Given multiple border crossings for auto parts between the integrated US-Mexico-Canada economies, there would be a significant impact on US auto prices.

“The only thing that’s new [in the IMF's July World Economic Update] is the risk of a market correction from AI,” Monica de Bolle says. “The Fund is sufficiently worried about this to actually talk about it, & that is big in itself.” san.com/cc/will-ai-dri…

Among the many grievances cited in the Declaration of Independence in 1776 was the American colonists’ complaint about Britain’s “cutting off our trade with all parts of the world.” @D_A_Irwin explores the history of Americans arguing about trade: piie.com/blogs/realtime…