PM KC

179 posts

PM KC

PM KC

@PMKCvg6

Portfolio manager, analyst of financial markets

Katılım Nisan 2012
603 Takip Edilen75 Takipçiler
PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@DraupnirAlpha IQE typically hasn’t had much visibility historically, but I note the April comment on “strong order book visibility into H2”. This suggests, given the bottlenecks forming, visibility has improved.
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
IQE report tomorrow. A detailed communication of trading has been lacking since late 2025. A UK company that reports results every 6 months with little communication in between. The January update highlighted multiple areas of strong orders - data centre, defence, wireless etc. Then a one liner guide of >20% revenue growth this year at the April equity raise and MACOM deal. So we get important detail tomorrow especially what has happened to the order book in the past 6months. Given the breadth of the end market recovery (noted by peers in the value chain), and what has happened since with the photonics cycle - it will be interesting to hear what they have to say
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Draupnir
Draupnir@DraupnirAlpha·
$IQE $IQEPF vs LandMark The market is paying 118x revenue for a Taiwan-based CPO epiwafer supplier with no defense relationships and 3 patents. It's paying 6x revenue for a UK/US-based CPO epiwafer supplier with 15-year Raytheon qualification, BAE Gold Tier status, Lumentum and MACOM LTAs, Point72 and Artisan on the register, explicit government supply chain protection, and a £45M strategic anchor investment. The gap between those two valuations is the IQE opportunity in one number....
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
They report tomorrow. A detailed communication of trading has been lacking since late 2025. A UK company that reports results every 6 months with little communication in between. The January update highlighted multiple areas of strong orders - data centre, defence, wireless etc. Then a one liner guide of >20% revenue growth this year at the April equity raise and MACOM deal. So we get important detail tomorrow especially what has happened to the order book in the past 6months. Given the breadth of the end market recovery (noted by peers in the value chain), and what has happened since with the photonics cycle - it will be interesting to hear what they have to say
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LukeWarm
LukeWarm@SeemsLukeWarm·
#IQE support flushed at 52p / ask @ 50.83. 50/51 either gets bought up for push up or that gap at 45.72 could be the next stop. Bulls & Bears now battling... invst.ly/1hp9gk
LukeWarm@SeemsLukeWarm

#IQE anticipate the profit takers will be reloading at 51.5/52 for the second leg run...

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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@seonu63038896 I’ve been trying to make this point. Both of those large holders have sold quite a lot of shares in the past few weeks. Those two combined with long term investor Richard Griffiths have sold a combined low teens % of the company
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NodeFlow
NodeFlow@seonu63038896·
For those waiting for a placing dip in $IQE, I think one point needs to be made very clear: Do not assume that the fundraising will suddenly release a large amount of new stock into the market. The headline number can be misleading if it is not broken down properly. The noteholder subscription accounts for roughly 34.6% of the new shares, while the retail allocation is only around 3%. But the important point is this: Approximately 95% of the noteholder block goes to Lombard Odier and Artisan Partners both of whom were already major IQE shareholders. So this is not a fresh block of unknown lenders suddenly receiving shares with no prior position to manage. These institutions already had sizeable legacy holdings. If they wanted to pre sell, rebalance, or adjust their exposure ahead of the new shares being admitted, they already had the ability to do so. In fact, the prior selling by the two large institutions has already been disclosed through RNS holdings notifications. That means a meaningful part of the position adjustment may already have taken place before the new shares even hit the market. The remaining roughly 5% of the noteholder allocation, including names such as Killik & Co LLP and others, also appears to involve parties that already had IQE exposure. Therefore, treating the full 34.6% noteholder subscription as immediate new selling pressure in June is, in my view, misleading. The real incremental supply from this part of the raise is likely much smaller than the headline percentage suggests. Even under a conservative assumption, the realistic potential supply from the noteholder block may be closer to around 5% of the new shares and that is assuming all of those smaller holders decide to sell, which is itself a conservative assumption. The retail allocation is also only about 3% and was offered to existing UK IQE shareholders, not random short-term buyers. If those holders understand IQE’s long term potential, I do not believe this small allocation is likely to create meaningful immediate selling pressure either. So for anyone waiting for a major placing related sell off, I think the burden of proof is on them to explain where that large fresh supply is actually supposed to come .
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@Furiously_Nick @Therichardralph It’s no coincidence that the US stock market is more highly valued with 40% of the working population with auto invest 401ks
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Richard | £1M Journey 🇬🇧
Call me mad. But I think Rachel reeves plan to tax cash held in S&S ISA is a good idea. The benefit to the UK of the S&S ISA is that money flows into business pushing up the value of the UK economy. Especially if as expected the majority of risk adverse Brits will go for FTSE ETFs.
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@Furiously_Nick @Therichardralph It does if it’s via an ipo or equity raise. It also drives up the valuation multiples of companies (more buyers than sellers - supply / demand = shares go up). Then companies can raise more equity or debt longer term off a larger market cap.
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
It’s the constant meddling and changing the goal posts that’s the problem - always to take more tax. The isa is a tax wrapper, paid into by after tax cash. Money has been herded in to ISA’s and now they tax what’s in a wrapper. It makes it no longer a wrapper. It’s just nonsense. It destroys the trust of savers who have already seen their cash lose real value for 20yrs. And they tax the interest which is generally below the inflation rate, so the real value falls faster. Its confiscation. It’s a bad road
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@DanilSer33 Cup & Handle? Sek20 from the base (40) of the cup to breakout level (60). So target sek80?
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@aleabitoreddit We need to see higher highs - through sek58, shorts won’t contemplate covering until it breaks out. Powder keg
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
A guide by Serenity on becoming a true Swedish local: 1. See crown jewel photonics company in $SIVE? 2. Get angry about 2024 revenue numbers, ignoring forward growth. 3. Encourage everyone to transfer control to America at the bottom, before the CPO supercycle 4. Be angry that the stock keeps rising 5. Have local hedge funds short 17%+ of free float on way up 6. Their funds loses 20%+ of value, and faces infinite losses 7. Face sudden realization America now dominates ownership with MSCI inclusion / NASDAQ listing coming up. 8. But see new news Jabil mass producing 1.6T LRO for hyperscalers with $SIVE H1 2027? 9. Don’t change your mind: keep focusing on 2024 revenue numbers and local accounting offices while executives are in America. 10. Become a meme on X.
Serenity tweet media
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

x.com/i/article/2056…

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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@BobbaPaddop @Lee_Trades IQE EV hit 2.67x FY27 revenues yesterday. Crazy vs peers. Technical selling - volumes have been high in recent days. They report May 28th
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Bob
Bob@BobbaPaddop·
@Lee_Trades I am hoping for further falls, often the market presents opportunity, just need to be confident and take it. I have never been more confident in ten years of IQE investing
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Lee
Lee@Lee_Trades·
$IQE RNS financial results released on 28th May. Should start to see shareprice settle over next few weeks, at 30p the market cap is ridiculously low compared to epiwafer peers with no debt and $MTSI backing them.
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@tomhfh Sky high land values in London make larger homes worth multiple millions. Double digit stamp duty another barrier. Then foreign wealthy lock up supply - keep wealth offshore in hard currency.
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Tom Harwood
Tom Harwood@tomhfh·
Why are investment bankers living in two up two downs in South London that were built for manual labourers? Because we haven’t built enough luxury housing. When we don’t build luxury homes, the houses that used to be for the everyman become the preserve of the elite. And everyone else moves *down* the chain. By building luxury homes we can move everyone *up* that chain.
Britain Remade@BritainRemade

Building "luxury flats" actually makes housing more affordable for everyone. It's an effect shown in studies around the world. The chains created by people moving into high end properties free up homes all the way down the ladder.

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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@mamamusey IQE has tested the April 28th low today. It’s important that it can bounce from this level. There has been very heavy selling from insiders and quant short sellers in recent days. Interesting entry imo
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Alex
Alex@thoughts867·
$iqe trading like shit over the last month. What’s up @aleabitoreddit
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@FinanceMajor_23 IQE’s sovereign advantage is notable also in EPItaxy - UK and US base. Following the Trump Xi summit and Trumps comments on Taiwan.
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Finance Major
Finance Major@FinanceMajor_23·
SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS $SIVE - THE INP SOVEREIGNTY HEDGE INSIDE THE PLATFORM Glasgow fab should be valued as a geopolitical hedge asset. Report notes: about a quarter of $SIVE value is really provenance, auditability, and jurisdictional insulation rather than standard photonics cash flow. Full Report: seqhresearch.com/p/sivers-semic…
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Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
Some of the best re-rate candidates in optics Came from companies with legacy businesses Or heavy copper exposure And are transitioning to heavier optical product mix Companies like $smtc $mtsi $aaoi $nok $crdo etc. If you can > find companies that have an under appreciated, high growth business hidden inside a larger company that traditionally deserves a low multiple > figure out how they will transition into a higher growth market and how quickly and how effectively and at what cost > have a guess on when the market will start to pay attention to this shift You can make a lot of money
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@Plaskpojken I also note they are potentially in the zone for OMXSB inclusion. Adding this to the MSCI and Nasdaq listing potential chat GPT thinks this is about Sek 650m - 1.9bn index / passive buying. So 5-10% of market cap give or take.
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Mikael Wåhlin
Mikael Wåhlin@Plaskpojken·
The structural repricing of Sivers Semiconductors ($SIVE) reached a major milestone today following official index updates. Here is a factual breakdown of the current market dynamics. 👇 1. MSCI Index Promotion MSCI has officially announced that Sivers Semiconductors will be upgraded from the Micro Cap to the Small Cap Index, effective June 1st. This move is a significant mechanical catalyst, as it mandates passive global index funds and ETFs to rebalance their portfolios to include the stock. 2. Private "Whale" Accumulation Beyond institutional interest, we have observed a notable trend in individual accumulation. Several private high-net-worth individuals have recently appeared on the shareholder registry, each holding approximately 1 million shares. These positions have been built through aggressive accumulation on the open market over the recent weeks, signaling strong private conviction. 3. Short Interest vs. Momentum The stock’s recent performance remains robust despite a short interest currently hovering around 9%. This creates a unique structural setup; as mechanical buying from index inclusion begins, any downward pressure from short positions faces a shrinking "free float" as shares are increasingly locked up by long-term institutional and private holders. 4. International Investor Alert: Swedish Market Hours For those trading from outside Sweden, please note the adjusted exchange hours for the remainder of the week due to the Ascension Day holiday: Wednesday, May 13 (Today): Half-day (Closes at 13:00 CEST). Thursday, May 14: Closed. Friday, May 15: Normal trading hours (09:00 - 17:30 CEST). Summary: The promotion to the MSCI Small Cap Index marks Sivers' transition from a local micro-cap into a globally recognized component of the AI infrastructure supply chain. With passive inflows expected by June 1st and high-net-worth individuals locking up the float, the market mechanics are shifting rapidly. $SIVE $SIVEF $NVDA #MSCI #Semiconductors #DeepTech #Investing
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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@PlutusSaysHodl @Plaskpojken Big short interest - needs to get out today by 1pm local Swedish time (now closed). Or run it into Friday
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Ploots
Ploots@PlutusSaysHodl·
@Plaskpojken Swedish shorts could be cooked then when the market opens again 👀
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Wow, $SIVE to be listed in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index. This is overwhelmly positively as it triggers more passive inflows as the MC grows. Rebalancing takes places May 29th.
softcareline@user637826

@aleabitoreddit Now it’s also being listed to the MSCI Small Cap Index. Swedish article: di.se/live/kursraket…

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PM KC
PM KC@PMKCvg6·
@LawnChairCap Lombard Odier (used to be convert holders) have sold a 7% position in two days. Likely making way for their top up at 19.8p. That’s large size aggressive selling. It will pass.
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Lawn Chair Capital
Lawn Chair Capital@LawnChairCap·
$IQE some thoughts on this red day after adding some more shares: At today’s ~$635M MC / $0.65, we’re trading ~3.3x consensus FY27 revenue (£140M / ~$190M). Landmark Opto sits at 30x on a very similar FY27 revenue estimate. A still-conservative 7x multiple (picked 7x out of thin air, why not 8, 9, 10, 27, idk 7 seems relatively fair for a company in this highly favored end market right now) on consensus alone = ~$1.33–$1.37/share PT (2.1x upside). MACOM LTSA + 27 guidance increase could push well higher. Decent asymmetric setup EVEN if you factor in this one time dilution event, which I still don’t agree with because markets price this stuff in. Appreciate any thoughts here (this isn’t AI slop), but this one feels like a no brainer. Chat am I cooked???
Lawn Chair Capital@LawnChairCap

The IQE vs LandMark Optoelectronics multiple gap is one of the more interesting setups I've seen. Same business: III-V compound semi epi wafers feeding AI optical and datacenter demand. Same supply chain, same tailwind. Landmark: 30x FY27 revenue, $8B market cap $IQE: 3.2x FY27 revenue, $560M market cap Yes Landmark has better margins and faster growth, but don’t think it justifies a 10x multiple spread. $IQE just recapped with MACOM as strategic anchor and signed LTSAs supporting a path to $200M FY27 revenue (could be better than that, we’ll hear post earnings soon). Consensus for 27 rn sits at £140M (per capIQ). Either consensus moves up to meet the company guide, or the multiple stays compressed because the market doesn't believe it. May 20 management can show the LTSA math. If the volumes are real, consensus revisits and the rerate takes care of itself. Holding this one comfortably for the long term along with $SIVE as my two photonic small cap international darlings. Going for a multibagger long term capital gain on these two $IQE $SIVE $LITE $AAOI Checked all multiples based on capIQ too so feel pretty good about them fwiw DYOR

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