@PlusEVAnalytics @goldenpants013 this certainly applies outside of weather live
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Prediction Watch
166 posts
Prediction Watch
@PMwatchUS
Unofficial ombudsman of the prediction market industry.
Katılım Aralık 2025
115 Takip Edilen114 Takipçiler
@goldenpants013 You'd need some biblical-level weather effects to overcome this kind of neg corr
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Kids, DO NOT parlay top 5s, top 10s, top 20s, or even made cuts. If you like them, bet them separately straight. They're inversely correlated with each other. If your first guy occupies a spot in the top 5/10/20, that's one less spot available for your second guy.
ParlayScience@ParlayScience
⛳️ Top 5 Parlay +1362 This was way too good not to share. Let's get to it fellas 🔥 🔗 Tail link - bit.ly/TopFive4-8
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@PMwatchUS @MartinShkreli Except you can’t get addicted to pharma
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@MartinShkreli in general price comp is good? Same thesis as pharma, the more competition the better the consumer fares
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what incredible innovation 😂😂
Sam McQuillan@sam_mcquill
Kalshi offered the best pricing on 41 of 67 March Madness games vs. sportsbooks, with its transaction fees = lower vig on average for the tournament, per Citizens: • Kalshi: 4.13% • DraftKings: 4.35% • FanDuel: 4.45% • Fanatics: 4.48% DraftKings ranked 2nd (17 games).
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Bunch of prediction market experts that don’t understand you can have block trades executed on a DCM without interacting with the website? Jfc
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@WALLACHLEGAL So funny to see you champion every win by the states while openly bemoaning the losses
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Ted Olson lost 7x in NJ federal courts and CA3 (twice), got rehearing and lost again (a third L), had cert denied the first time, and ultimately prevailed. That one was a much longer shot. Strong dissent from Roth, but no outside counsel by NJ was such an unwise decision.
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@RufusPeabody Is sub-cent pricing not just the obvious answer here. Decicent is insane friction when .5 intervals exist
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I strongly disagree. I've been requesting deci-cents on golf for a long time.
Deci-cents hurts top-down market makers and rewards better pricing. The game is no longer about queue position on something a square 6th grader could price because it's trading at 1c/2c.
On live, yeah, it probably hurts margins for MMs pulling odds from sportsbooks. Aside from the courtsiding issue, it's very easy to price something at -9900/+4900. It's just speed and queue management. Short term maybe liquidity dips, but long run you get more competitive prices. You say recs don't care about price but a rec does care about 499/1 instead of 99/1.
And your argument about taking being harder is easily solved via a configurable "slippage" feature that many orderbooks already have. If done right, it should feel no different to recs.
I'll be more active in live MM now that more than 5% of the field is tradeable and the competition is about having better prices, not being first in queue at 98c laying a golfer DraftKings has at 80/1.
Also, 40 million contracts sounds like a lot, but when most of that volume is taking at 1c, actual bet volume from takers is much smaller than other markets trading 40 mill.
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013
I think this post highlights an issue. Adhi is very smart and someone I respect a lot. So when he says that deci-cent for golf is one of the "most requested" features. Or he's hearing from everyone "golf is broken on Kalshi", I think it mirrors what a lot of smart people at PMs MAY be hearing. But WHO is saying it's broken, and WHO is requesting these features? I can tell you who isn't saying this. 1. Recs 2. Market Makers who are staying up LIVE which is 80% of volume and all that matters. Pregame is useless. 3. The people counting the money at Kalshi. THE VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP - a tournament a PGA Tour players don't even care about. Was the 3rd most traded event during the first week of March Madness. This change to deci-cent hurts: 1. Recs who want to bet live - they will fail to get their bet at an exponentially higher rate and they DONT CARE ABOUT PRICE. 2. The valuable MMs (ones who are up live doing the lords work, dodging courtsiders etc..) 3. Kalshi So it helps...me 2 years ago? This would have been a really great update for me and like 10 other sharp golf bettors back when we were 100% taking. And it helps the penny jumpers ofc.
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@goldenpants013 Also a cost of capital question, who is even incentivized to price 99.9c outcomes
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I think this post highlights an issue. Adhi is very smart and someone I respect a lot. So when he says that deci-cent for golf is one of the "most requested" features. Or he's hearing from everyone "golf is broken on Kalshi", I think it mirrors what a lot of smart people at PMs MAY be hearing.
But WHO is saying it's broken, and WHO is requesting these features?
I can tell you who isn't saying this.
1. Recs
2. Market Makers who are staying up LIVE which is 80% of volume and all that matters. Pregame is useless.
3. The people counting the money at Kalshi.
THE VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP - a tournament a PGA Tour players don't even care about. Was the 3rd most traded event during the first week of March Madness.
This change to deci-cent hurts:
1. Recs who want to bet live - they will fail to get their bet at an exponentially higher rate and they DONT CARE ABOUT PRICE.
2. The valuable MMs (ones who are up live doing the lords work, dodging courtsiders etc..)
3. Kalshi
So it helps...me 2 years ago? This would have been a really great update for me and like 10 other sharp golf bettors back when we were 100% taking. And it helps the penny jumpers ofc.
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran@eightyhi
@goldenpants013 i don’t follow, isn’t decicent for golf one of the most requested features? and you’re saying it decreases volume now? been hearing for months that golf on kashi was essentially unplayable due to this issue, and now it’s fixed
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@steeder10 @canzhi One of these parties knows more ball than the other, and it for sure isn’t the basketball coach
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Illinois just lost a game that they had 7 KILLS in. This is a massive outlier.
👇🏼
Mike Brey calls them KILLS.
Tony Bennett calls them GAPS.
Bruce Weber calls them SHUTOUTS.
Buzz Williams calls them TURKEYS.
If you're looking for a defensive stat that is arguably the most PREDICTIVE stat in basketball, it's 3 STOPS IN A ROW.
This isn't a stat you'll find on NBA.com or basketballreference.com but according to Mike Brey, who religiously tracked 3 stops in a row, win % is ~ 90% when you accomplish this 7 TIMES in a game.
Build your defense around stringing together consecutive stops. This allows for better scoring opportunities, gives you the ability to micro manage your defense during the game and most importantly provides a ton of ENERGY.
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"Claude, please test the latency of each phase of this process to identify potential bottlenecks"
"Chat GPT, please put the person in this image in a compromising position"
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Kalshi board member (and Trump's first CFTC Chair nominee) Brian Quintenz calls commercial and tribal casinos "thugs." Stay classy, Brian!
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Some news: we’ve made the difficult decision to close our Drafts business.
Draft games have been the foundation of Underdog since 2020, and we’re incredibly grateful to the community that supported us.
Our goal has always been to build the best possible experience for our users, so right now we’re shifting our focus to other formats.
This was not an easy decision. Stay tuned for more to come, and thank you to those who have drafted with us.
April Fools
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@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj Is it in the long-term interest of an AP to take advantage of rulescucks on PMs or to flag and push for improvement
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Alright this week @Sports__Proj and I are interviewing a guest that’s operated in the shadows until now. On one hand, exciting. On the other, hard to get questions for. So a teaser of our guest:
- Left a 9 year law career to gamble pro
- One AP play involved buying a lumberyard
- describes himself as a rort finder
- Profitably operating on PMs and Traditional SBs as of rn
So if you can think of some good questions - please send in the comments
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If I had a nickel for every time I failed to properly map a “no” I’d have a lot of fucking nickels
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Would be dope if Kalshi websocket events were actually received <1s from creation as the Lord intended
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