James A. Hyerczyk | Market Analysis

Crude oil futures settle at $96.57 after falling from $117.63 to $91.05. Ceasefire removes risk premium while $91.05 support becomes key level to watch. $CL #CrudeOil #Futures Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

@RKelanic It looks extreme, but it’s not just panic. The cash market is pricing immediate, deliverable barrels, while futures are pricing what happens next. That kind of spread points to tight logistics and short-term disruption—not necessarily a lasting shortage.

The oil futures market is *so weird.* Futures are pricing oil ~$40 less than physical spot prices. Yet there’s no credible story where physical oil costs $40 less 1-2 months from now: -ceasefire tenuous -Hormuz at a trickle -damage to oil infrastructure -10 mb/d shut in Is USG gaming this somehow? 🤔

DXY slides 1.3% this week, breaking below key trend support and recent swing lows. Soft core CPI and fading war risk keep pressure on the dollar while traders watch Iran headlines and the 50/200-day MAs. $DXY #Forex #USD Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

S&P 500 rallies on the week but shows signs of stalling after Friday’s reversal signal. Oil swings and CPI data keep downside risk in play for traders. $SPX #SP500 #Markets Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

Nasdaq looks for continuation as chips and mega-cap tech lead. Key moving averages now act as support, while software selling remains the risk for $IXIC #USstocks Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

Natural gas futures extend losses, hitting fresh 7-month lows as selling pressure builds. Oversupplied market, weak demand, and a break below $2.70 put $2.62 in focus. $NG #NaturalGas Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

Suddenly, market analysis is as polarizing as politics. Differing opinions are insulted, not considered. We are living in a world of gray, but people expect black and white. They expect analysts to know where a market is going and in what time frame with accuracy. That isn’t how this works. I’d be happily retired if I could see the future. If someone tells you they know with absolute certainty what happens next in oil, they are lying. Here is my broad thought on oil. I believe we are topping, but it isn't an event; it is a process. If we are following the 2022 playbook, the highs are in. If we are following the 2020 blueprint in reverse, we would see a blow-off top heading into the May contract expiration in a few weeks... right around the time the cease-fire ends. This isn't a time to be swinging for the fence, in my view.

Silver holds near highs as buyers stay active into CPI. Inflation data will shape Fed rate cut expectations, with $74.63 a key level to watch. $XAGUSD #Silver #CPI Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

S&P 500 holds firm after a strong week as oil eases and risk sentiment improves. CPI today is the key driver, with the 50-day and 200-day MAs critical for trend control. $SPX #CPI #USindices Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

DXY holds 50/200-day MA support after sharp selloff as yields drop on ceasefire. Watch if buyers can follow through or if another lower top forms. $DXY #Forex Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

$XAGUSD surged on Iran ceasefire news but couldn’t hold above key resistance. Watch $74.63 and the 50-day MA at $80.01—failure keeps pressure on support. #Silver #XAGUSD Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

@Ex_HFT @DragonFlyTrust I think that was in August 1987, right before the top. He used to trade in LBJ's office off the little CME monitor.

Victor Spilotro (yes, that Spilotro) was pulled out of the S&P pit after accumulating ~2000 contracts, bigs at that time, by Les Rosenthal over fears the position would bankrupt the firm and cause big problems at the CME. He supposedly didn’t turn in his cards during the trading periods while an accumulating the position so the clearing firm couldn’t monitor the risk. Possibly the ultimate Ohare trade.

The O'hare Spread It was rare, but real enough that former pit traders like Jon Najarian confirmed seeing "airport trades" where guys who got wrecked just disappeared. The pits were the Wild West fistfights, millionaires minted daily, and total escape hatches In the '80s heyday, Some traders would put on a massive bet on something like soybeans or wheat, then immediately head to O'Hare Airport. They'd check the market from there: If it paid off → lavish vacation. If it blew up → one-way ticket to a new life under a new name somewhere else.

Start with Determining profit factor. %W x Avg. Win/%L x Avg. Loss Below 1.0 = strategy unprofitable 1.0 to 1.5 = Break Even Territory 1.5 to 2.0 = Sold, strong performance Above 2.0 = Exceptional or be realistic when paper trading, assume the worst fill in and the worst fill out and see if you're still profitable. You have to establish some kind of baseline before you explore other things.

I've been paper trading for 7 years and I'm really good at it. Every time I go live I completely fall apart. I literally cannot explain why I'm a god on demo and a disaster on live

@DragonFlyTrust I see that and I think that one of those guys could be the Voice from the Tomb.

The Wheat Pit of the Chicago Board of Trade (1907)

DXY slides for a third day as risk sentiment improves. Fed cut bets and falling oil prices add pressure on the dollar outlook. $DXY #Forex #USD Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

Gold extends gains as price clears key resistance and builds upside momentum. Ceasefire shift drives the move, with the 50-day moving average now the key level to watch. $XAUUSD #gold Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…

Front-end crude carried the war premium. That’s what’s getting unwound first. @FXEmpirecom $CL

Will the ceasefire hold and keep the Strait of Hormuz open over the next two weeks? $CL #WTI #CrudeOil

@OilandEnergy Nearby crude carries the most risk. In a backwardated curve, the war premium sits in the front end—and it’s the first to get hit when sentiment shifts. $CL #WTI #CrudeOil #Futures

Context 🔎 oilprice.com/oil-price-char…

S&P500 futures gap higher as ceasefire news drives a sharp rebound in US stocks. Price now tests 50-day and 200-day MAs, with momentum dependent on follow-through buying. $SPX #SP500 #Futures #Trading Full breakdown: @FXEmpirecom fxempire.com/forecasts/arti…