PaSwede

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PaSwede

PaSwede

@PaSwede

Trained Economist working outside of Academia who dislikes the trend towards extremes and polarization of our politics. Would prefer a multi-party system.

Newtown, PA Katılım Haziran 2011
757 Takip Edilen365 Takipçiler
PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
"glmbayes just hit #1 on r/rstats — Bayesian GLMs with familiar glm() syntax, no MCMC required. Seems to be resonating with the R community. [link] #rstats #bayesian"
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@MortenStostad Your notion that economists claim that markets are fair (a normative statement) if value equals marginal contribution is just incorrect. The claim is that price taking tends to lead to price=marginal contribution which tends to imply efficiency (a positive statement).
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Morten N. Støstad
Morten N. Støstad@MortenStostad·
The naïve prediction from value = marginal contribution is that both produce everything. This can't be the case, clearly. This, to me, is deeply interesting, as the claim that markets are fair often rely on the claim that value creation is equal to marginal contribution (wage).
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Morten N. Støstad
Morten N. Støstad@MortenStostad·
Underrated fact: In nearly all economic settings, you cannot objectively know how much value anyone produces. It is unknowable. The simple heuristics we use (e.g. value=marginal contribution) all fall apart under scrutiny. Why?
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@haugejostein Brilliance of Capitalism is exchanges of goods & services are based on free choices by both parties. I don't have to pay for somebody else's goods or services if I don't want to & they don't have to pay for mine. other systems involve making others pay for things they don't want.
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Jostein Hauge
Jostein Hauge@haugejostein·
The idea that capitalism = freedom is a myth. Capitalism restricts freedom in countless ways. Under highly capitalist systems, basic needs are commodified. Freedom becomes paywalled. Rich people have freedom, poor people don't.
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@anup_malani @EichMartin My sense is Ricardian equivalence is closer to being true for Higher income/the wealthy than for lower income/less wealthy. Higher income people are closer to being "rational" in behavior. Ricardian equivalence also assumes fixed spend.
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Anup Malani
Anup Malani@anup_malani·
Ricardian Equivalence says if the government sends you $1,000, you should save it — deficits today mean higher taxes tomorrow. But @EichMartin, Guerreiro & Obradovic survey households and find they don't. People spend government transfers the same way they spend any other income.
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@MortenStostad Whether redistributive policies should/should not be pursued is inherently a normative question and Economists hurt their credibility as "scientist" if they make collective statements in this regard or if they pretend that there is any "science" behind those types of statements.
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@MortenStostad Economist can and should study what the likely impact of various policies might be and what might be better/worse ways of achieving various policy objectives. This is "positive economics". 1/2
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Morten N. Støstad
Morten N. Støstad@MortenStostad·
Economists are absolutely supposed to suggest solutions, while taking into account constraints and allowing for a wide range of normative views. We are not supposed to be endless critics. Perhaps we should reflect on why some economists may think that we should be.
Antoine Levy@LevyAntoine

No, as scientists, it's absolutely untrue that "our job is to come up with solutions". That you would think it is is actually very revealing about your conception of science as advocacy, and thus how seriously we should be taking your analyses.

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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@jdcmedlock The US had to pass a constitutional amendment to implement an income tax that is not distributed among states based on population. With current SCOTUS, I would be hard pressed seeing a wealth tax being constitutional without a similar amendment. States could pass wealth taxes.
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James Medlock
James Medlock@jdcmedlock·
But we are not some Swiss canton where people can move a few miles away to avoid a tax. We're the United freaking States of America, full of the most desirable, productive agglomeration hubs in the world, and that's not something you can pick up and move. We can do it better!
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James Medlock
James Medlock@jdcmedlock·
Good thread, a few thoughts: - Nordics don't rely on wealth taxes for broad welfare, but you can absolutely do both. I agree it's muddled to tie a wealth tax to social insurance expansion, but Norway has had a national wealth tax since 1892 and it has been successful.
Jeff Stein@jstein_star

A couple long winded thoughts on the Bernie Sanders billionaire tax discourse: 1. Sanders likes to cite the Nordics as a model, but really none of those countries finance broad-based social welfare programs through wealth taxes on a tiny elite, as he proposed yesterday. You could obviously make the case: This is a pure messaging bill, so who really cares? But if this is really about creating a vision for where the country needs to go, this path has problems the Nordics avoid. Making long term social programs like Medicare expansion and universal childcare dependent on an uncertain short term funding tax base (as he proposes) is a different thing. If it works as you want, you’re eroding the funding base for your social programs. You can still do the massive billionaire tax on political economy and moral economy grounds. It is the opposite, eg, of what Sanders did in 2020, when he stuck by the idea that Medicare for all would require some middle class tax hikes. Why muddle the existing Nordic project with a billionaire tax — when you could propose both separately? 2. There’s been a lot of talk about the failure of wealth taxes elsewhere. Those comments are fair enough, and I’m sure nobody really knows how much revenue this would generate. But there also seems to be something … dare I say … a touch unpatriotic in some of the criticisms? Wealth taxes have failed elsewhere, yes. But a national wealth tax has never been tried here, and the difference matters. The US is not Switzerland. We have the world’s biggest economy and an enormous/punitive exit tax. We don’t have the collective action problem of a state or EU country; billionaires are not corporations. Capital has international reach, sure. But so does the world’s largest empire

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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@haugejostein Neoliberalims is the left bogeyman that is to be blamed for all things while in reality most trend over time have just been driven by long-term economic trends shared across Economies regardless of political orientation. But sure, keep blaming Reagan and Thatcher.
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Jostein Hauge
Jostein Hauge@haugejostein·
The evidence supporting the claim that “neoliberalism is and always has been good” is close to zero. Neoliberalism has heightened inequality almost everywhere it has been applied. Across the world, labour standards and wages for the working class have suffered tremendously under neoliberal policies. Neoliberal principles were a huge factor in causing the global financial crisis in 2008. Post-2008, neoliberal austerity policies produced unambiguously negative economic outcomes. In Africa, neoliberal policies in the 1980s and 1990s caused GDP growth to turn *negative*. This contrasts sharply with East Asia, where countries like South Korea and later China explicitly rejected neoliberal policies. Countries that score the highest on well-being indexes have strong redistributive policies that defy neoliberal principles.
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@BharatRamamurti This is BS. Both the Biden loan forgiveness case and this case are fundamentally about the determining the powers that belong with Congress vs. the Executive branch and not about whether someone feels these are good or bad policies or whether they align with corporate interests.
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Bharat Ramamurti
Bharat Ramamurti@BharatRamamurti·
Today's ruling does not signal a new era of the Roberts Court. It's simply the latest example of how the Court operates: siding with the policy interests of the Republican Party except in those rare instances where that conflicts with the interests of Corporate America. 6/
Bharat Ramamurti tweet media
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Bharat Ramamurti
Bharat Ramamurti@BharatRamamurti·
Five thoughts on the Supreme Court's tariff decision today. 1/
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
There are so many partisan dimwits who don't seem to get that both the loan forgiveness and this tariff case were about fundamental separation of powers questions and not about whether not either is good policy. It is Congress's responsibility to decide and not the president's.
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@joewrote @jonathanchait @AJentleson Her historic record of being a progressive followed her. Her shift was not credible and she lost credibility with both progressives and centrist.
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Joe Wrote
Joe Wrote@joewrote·
@jonathanchait @AJentleson So you admit Harris moderated like you wanted, but it didn’t work. And instead of realizing what you wanted failed, you conclude “she didn’t moderate” enough. Do you see how narcissistic this sounds? Of course you “want to understand it.” You’re lying to yourself to save face.
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Joe Wrote
Joe Wrote@joewrote·
We can have factional disagreements without calling each other liars. I wouldn't call you a liar for arguing for the Democrats to remain centrist. But pretending Kamala Harris lost because she was a progressive makes you an absolute liar.
Adam Jentleson@AJentleson

@joewrote You do know that it is possible to have factional disagreements without calling people liars, right? That’s always an option.

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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@joewrote Voteview (DW-NOMINATE): ranked Harris as the 2nd most liberal senator during her time in office, trailing only Senator Elizabeth Warren. Her overall score of -0.709 placed her further to the left than Senator Bernie Sanders (-0.54).
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@jeffspross The left all across the west have lost touch with working class people and have become the "Bramin left". However, the failure is not because of economics but because of the rise of Culture wars and immigration as the dominant issues.
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@IsabellaMWeber @UMassEcon Both Rawls and Harsanyi have looked at this kind of issue. Saying that economist don't look at it is not a factual statement. What is the right way of doing so, however, is not clear and how much equality or inequality we want to tolerate is not a scientific question.
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Isabella M Weber
Isabella M Weber@IsabellaMWeber·
In economics, we cannot say that the marginal utility of providing milk to kids is more than that of a rich person enjoying an extra bid of caviar. Isn't this sociopathic? This lack of morality is designed to prevent redistribution. Sam Bowles, @UMassEcon
UChicago | Stone Center on Inequality & Mobility@UCStoneCenter

We rarely think of economics as scandalous, but maybe we should. Sam Bowles, in conversation with @sndurlauf & @ethanbdm, argues that a core assumption in the field impedes moral reasoning about wealth redistribution. Watch the full panel → bit.ly/3Yj4F3B

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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@mbaram @chamath How is it miss=leading? The rich are funding most of the government services. In what universe would it b e fair to have the rich pay for almost all government services? I guess you are free-rider who don't want to have to contribute anything. Good luck if the rich leave.
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Marcus Baram
Marcus Baram@mbaram·
@chamath Totally misleading, as you well know. Many of California's millionaires and billionaires often pay little to no taxes because they avoid income (and payroll taxes) + utilize tax-free inheritances.
Marcus Baram tweet media
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
This chart shows that the top 1% of California taxpayers are responsible for more than 33% of all tax dollars. The top 0.1% of California taxpayers payers (~17,500 people) are responsible for more than 16% of all tax revenues. The point is that only a few people, in a state of 40M people, pay a huge portion of the state’s revenues. As one of them, I can tell you categorically that we’ve had enough. We will all move if this tax insanity doesn’t stop and pockets are organizing already to do so en masse. The middle class will then be left alone to pay for all the waste of the politicians you’ve elected because they have no ability to stop.
Chamath Palihapitiya tweet media
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
We are really getting to crisis mode for the left in the US. I do think our politics is destined to end up with the same stalemate we see in France with three blocks. If the progressives take over the Dems, we will see mass defections to a center block.....
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@TheChiefNerd Kara Swisher, I wonder who the ungrateful piece of shit is here...
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Chief Nerd
Chief Nerd@TheChiefNerd·
🚨 Kara Swisher on California’s Wealth Tax “You made all your money in California, you ungrateful piece of sh*t. You could figure out a way to pay more taxes, and we deserve the taxes from you.”
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@MichaelAArouet How is sweden the mots individualistic? This is quite a change since 70s and shows how wrong the american left is about Scandinavia.
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Michael A. Arouet
Michael A. Arouet@MichaelAArouet·
This is probably the most telling chart you will see today. Remember the new New York City mayor talking about the warmth of collectivism and rugged individualism, and the crowd cheering? In reality the exact opposite is true, collectivism makes nations poor. Got it now? Chart @notcomplex_
Michael A. Arouet tweet media
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PaSwede
PaSwede@PaSwede·
@krystalball No...You can either be drive away your tax base or ensure your state can be competitive and have its functions funded. But sure virtue signalling is all Liz warren and you ever cared about.
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