Souresh Pal
8.8K posts

Souresh Pal
@PalSouresh
Engineer by profession and investor by passion





Second order effects. Fertilizer plants are closing in India because they lack LNG. India is the world second largest sugar producer.







$PBR – Petrobras, gotta remind myself to stay with the winners. It's run quite a bit, but to be honest it only went from dirt cheap to just cheap. I won’t predict short-term direction, anything can happen. That said, I'm staying with the core position (2/3) until trend bends, took off the trading portion (1/3) earlier, which was too soon as it turns out.



I won’t be posting the Q2 SGMART earnings call this time. The reason is simple — the company isn’t "WALKING THE TALK". And that’s fine. It happens. In investing, we make a few dozen bets. - Some become blockbusters. - Some do average. - Some just sit there near your entry price. - Some lose 20–30%. SGMART, for me, falls into that third category. The business is still young they’re building service centers, renewable structures, and exploring long-term growth avenues. Management remains optimistic about their guidance. But as an investor, I need something more than optimism. I need consistency. Because ultimately, hope doesn’t compound. Earnings do. I’m not angry. Just pragmatic. When I sense that capital might get locked in a slow lane, I prefer to step aside not because I’ve lost faith, but because opportunity cost is real. I’ have trimmed my position significantly. I’ll keep a tiny tracking stake just enough to stay interested. If the business finds its rhythm again — if growth returns and reflects in the P&L — I’ll be back. That’s the beauty of markets. You can always return when the story makes sense again. Looking back, maybe I was just early. SGMART’s only been listed for two years. They’re still learning, still finding product–market fit, still balancing ambition with execution. And that’s okay. This is part of the game. Sometimes you invest in a seed before it’s ready to sprout. Sometimes you step back and let time do its thing. The trick is to stay patient but not paralyzed. For me, this is a lesson in discipline. Investing isn’t about proving you’re right. It’s about protecting your capital so you can be right when it matters. Howard Marks often talks about “second-level thinking” — The ability to see beyond short-term noise and think probabilistically. And right now, the probability of meaningful compounding here seems low for the near term. So, I’ll preserve my capital. I’ll redeploy where growth visibility is clearer. And I’ll circle back when execution aligns with ambition. This is investing. It’s hard. It’s humbling. And it’s never personal. You win some, you lose some but the only thing that truly matters is how you respond. Don’t blame others for your losses. Don’t credit others for your wins. Be accountable. Markets reward those who can stay rational longer than others can stay emotional. Rant over. I’m moving on, but not moving away. Still watching, still learning. Tags : @EquityInsightss @shome_rajarshi @AmannaPrerana @tsatwork @EquityValueIn @suryachaudhary1 @Anand_shah07








Something big happened in the markets today that most novice investors completely missed. Gold rallied alongside oil and the dollar, noticeable, but not what’s interesting. The real story was in the bond market with the 2s/10s curve steepening sharply. Seems the market has finally looked ahead to what’s happening; stagflation.








