PalénTrade

This might be it for the #Bitcoin 4 year cycle! 👀 $BTC forming a Wyckoff Distribution Top? #Crypto #CryptoMarket #CryptoCommunity #wyckoff

@TheShortBear Where do you see that Bitcoins adoption is sky high?

$TOTAL shows the total market cap of crypto. The charts looks similar to the Russell. Multi year consolidation since 2020 followed by a double retest of the neckline. Double retest of the trendline here now and peaking back over the multi-month neckline. Most are bearish, adoption is sky high...

@hkeskiva Miettinyt ihan samaa että ei ehkä ole paras hetki sijoittaa teknologiaan (esim sähköauto) jos oletus on että kehitys tulee nopeutumaan huomattavasti

Jos maksaa liikaa teknologiayhtiöistä, lyö itse asiassa vetoa teknologiaa vastaan. Koko homman idea on innovoida aiempaa parempia keinoja ratkaista pullonkauloja. Tässä yksi tuore esimerkki.

@TechCharts If people don’t trust USD. Why would they trust EURO 🤔

Breakdown, pullback and continuation? $EURUSD #FX

@JukkaLepikko On tuo kyllä harmillista. Tämä on se puoli bisnesmaailmasta josta en tykkää

@PalenTrade Klikkien tavoitteluksi se on tainnut valitettavasti mennä...

Osakemarkkinat eivät avautuneet vapaassa pudotuksessa eikä nähty mustaa maanantaita. Länsimaiden pörssit avautuivat -1 % tasoilta ja käänsivät plussalle Trumpin kommenttien jälkeen. Median maalaama draama vs. todellisuus eroavat usein aika merkittävästi.

@TechCharts Would be quite an opportunity if silver retests $50. What is your take on that. You think that's 50/50 odds?

Long-term #SILVER investors... This is the chart that you should be focusing on. 50 level was broken on the upside after decades. As long as it holds above that level, long-term investment/asset allocation theme is intact.

@KobeissiLetter Gladly we are not surprised. Charts have been hinting about this

BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially posts its lowest close of 2026, erasing -$3.2 trillion in market cap since the Iran War began.

@TechCharts Bounce back now after a fakeout downwards. Then continuation

Always expect the unexpected. What is the unexpected right now?

@JukkaLepikko Useampi MAG7 näyttää hidastumisen ja mahdollisten huippujen merkkejä. Google esimerkiksi. Katsotaan miten käy 🤝

@PalenTrade Liikettä on aivan liian vähän alas viime viikkoina suhteessa noin isoon vaihtoon (=accumulation)

Osakemarkkina pohjaa yleensä, kun tässä indikaattorissa saavutetaan ääritasoja. Kuvassa sinisellä: S&P 500 -indeksi Keltaisella: S&P 500 -indeksin osakkeiden määrä (prosenteissa), jotka ovat 20 liukuvan keskiarvon yläpuolella Pohjia nähdään yleensä, kun luku laskee 5-15 % tasolle. 10 % taso on kannattanut lähes aina ostaa (vihreä vaakaviiva). Eilen käytiin päivän sisällä luvussa 14,51 %. Ollaan siis ostoalueella. Se ei tarkoita, ettei seuraavina päivinä indeksi voisi vielä laskea alemmaksi - mutta yleensä näillä tasoilla on kannattanut ennemmin olla ostohousut jalassa.

En tiedä tulevaisuuden tapahtumista. Teen analyysini 95% graaffien perusteella. Jos markkina rikkoo 17 marraskuun pohjat on viikon sykli epäonnistunut ja syntyy lower low. Tällöin markkina on lasku trendissä (left translated sykli). Huomattava myynti voluumi myös näkyvillä. Ottaako isoraha / karhut vallan?

@PalenTrade Miten markkina laskee tuota >10% tuloskasvua vastaan? IT-sektori raportoi seuraavalla tuloskaudella >40 % tuloskasvusta. Sektoritasolla.

@TechCharts My guess is bounce back before another leg down and time for a correction phase

Several Global Equity benchmarks are at their 200-day averages. Change of trend or a reversion to the mean. Decision time. $RUT

This is absolutely insane: Prior to the Iran war, US oil companies were generating ~$62 billion in annual free cash flow with oil prices at $55/barrel. Now, with oil prices at $100/barrel, US oil companies are expected to generate $163 billion in annual free cash flow, if current prices are sustained. In other words, US oil giants are set to rake in an additional +$100 BILLION in free cash flow per year if oil prices remain elevated. We are arguably witnessing the most profitable market conditions in history for US big oil.

@disclosetv Has the market priced this in? US soldies potentially being deployed to a conflict in Iran. If the situation escalates, I don't think markets have priced that risk

JUST IN - Pentagon approves deployment of a Marine "expeditionary unit" of about 2,500 Marines to the Middle East — WSJ

Has the market priced this in? 👀 US soldies potentially being deployed to a conflict in Iran. If the situation escalates, I don't think markets have fully priced that risk $SPX $SPY

@TechCharts Good points. For me break and retests are one of my favorite setups. Easy to manage risk and maximum RR. Over time you also start to read better the market structures and when it makes sense to jump in on the breakout

Timing of entry...

@BobLoukas That makes sense. If things pull back hard, I’ll be looking for the best setups

@PalenTrade Given the move they have had, I would say down. Risk off 4 yr cycle declines have a habit of bringing everything down with it. At least for the main move.

I believe there is a good chance that Stocks have peaked for its 4 Year Cycle. Last week my 'active' portfolios went into more defensive positions, cash to 33%. Further selling to come on more confirmation. Seeing the signs of the breakdown on the Daily Cycle currently. The weekly Cycle has NOT yet confirmed this, so it's early days on this view. A top would bring the Oct timeframe into focus for a bottom. Given the AI capex and fiscal stimulus, this more likely to be a relatively mild cyclical bear, a shakeout, setting up for a really explosive rally for 2027-2029.

@MitchRayTA Trust the trend

If history repeats itself on Bitcoin, we are screwed.