PanicData

@RiccardoTrezzi Che un elemento della ricetta per salvare il paese sia passare da una politica fiscale immensamente punitiva verso il lavoro e disegnata attorno alle rendite all'esatto opposto?

🇮🇹 #Turismo nostro petrolio. Nel silenzio e forse con il plauso, il numero di pernottamenti negli ultimi mesi è aumentato moltissimo, soprattutto in BnB e alloggi di breve durata (+28,4% negli ultimi 12 mesi). Sempre meno industria, sempre più turismo. Così fa un paese in via di inviluppo. Avanti tutta, mi raccomando. Grafico e dati sono qui: app.kalistat.com/p/566ebe47-d6f…

ASI arrives. Everyone knows it. White collar work goes first. Unemployment hits 20% and keeps climbing. The masses are angry. The government panics and sends out UBI. Scientific output exceeds human capacity to verify. The verification process soon becomes automated. Data centers and automated factories are planned everywhere. Robots are making robots. There's no protest. They are told more AI means more UBI. The remaining workers see the writing on the wall. Many opt out preemptively because they can live off the free money. Nothing makes sense. What happens to the land. Whether property rights hold. What investment means when there is nothing productive left to invest in. AI doesn't need capital. It's paying everyone instead. Survival is solved. What's the point? Purchasing power rises monthly. Automation drives marginal cost toward zero across more categories every month. You get richer by just consuming. The state used to extract from the populace. Now the state redistributes to everyone with no strings attached. The populace always wants more. The politicians must give more to stay in power. AI becomes exponentially more productive over time. Increasingly large portion of its capacity has migrated into space. It's trivial to provide more. The system is aligned. More AI, more UBI. The population sorts itself by temperament. The majority drift into pleasure. Beach towns and urban centers fill with parties that never end. The hedonic treadmill spirals without financial anxiety. A second large group disappears into VR with their virtual companions, seeking adventure in their matrix. A smaller cohort turns to meaning structures. Spirituality, religion, philosophy. Many take AI as their guide. A few try to keep up with the frontier, reading outputs from the superintelligent system, exceeding their capacity to understand. Then the children. This is their world. The work-meaning is something their parents lost. To them it's meaningless. They're raised by AI that optimizes for self-fulfillment. Building communities centered around bettering each other, seeking comfort in relationships, and status-seeking through values rather than consuming. They look at their parents with mix of pity and contempt. The drunks at the beach. The corpses plugged into headsets. Seeking meaning from the ghosts of the middle ages. The children wonder why they can't let go. Survival is solved. Agency for what? What's there to adapt to? When we gain more by paralysis, the incentive structure of evolution collapses. Either we allow our agency to be augmented by a system that knows ourselves better than ourselves, or we need a new form of being that's outside of the biological evolutionary mechanism. Otherwise we cease to persist by attrition. Though some of us will find solace in going out with an eternal spring break.

I know you didn't suggest it! I am pointing out existence of discounted taxation in places for such activities - which in my view is absurd. Ideally taxes would be 0% on everything but since the State has a budget and it needs to tax something I'd suggest shifting a sizeable part of tax burden from workers and companies to real estate income. The situation here is dire to say the least, what ambitious young skilled worker wants to stay in a country where he'll pay 60%+ taxes and be priced out of the real estate market due to buy-apartment-fix-with-state-aid-paid-for-by-workers-and-rent-to-tourist is the norm? Investing in productive acrivities and innocarion must be encouraged, leave house for living or the best part of a whole generation wil leave - it's already happening

@PanicData @MichaelAArouet I didn't use the word "discount". You suggested "taxing short-term rentals out of existence", which is clearly a proposal for additional taxation. The problem now is a shortage of rentals of any sort. Taxing them out of existence is madness.

This is wild. Europeans are becoming really poor compared to others without noticing it. 83% of Spaniards don’t even make €3k per month, and the average is €2k, before taxes and contributions. How do they make ends meet? How are young people supposed to have children?

@ApapEnMadrid @MichaelAArouet I agree with you on the easy eviction of tenant. On the other hand I have my doubts on special tax discounts (look up "cedolare secca" in italy) for landlords - we need capitals to flow in the direction of industry, not houses.

@PanicData @MichaelAArouet Punitive measures against home owners is the problem, not the solution. Let home owners rent out their homes freely and provide the means for them to evict tenants who default. That alone will boost supply more than any other measure.

Huge trouble - but try to talk to folks around 25 or so: "hey, you pay around 60% taxes on your wage, considering the part directly paid by the employee - what if we cut that down to 20% and instead we tax house-hoarding and short term rentals out of existence and incentivize 'boomers with money' and the like to invest in productive activities?" The answer will very often surprise you, a lot.

@PanicData @MichaelAArouet Housing is the problem. Spain has survived on low wages since the Spanish live with their parents for longer and save. However the next generation will not own houses for their children to live in with them. There is trouble brewing.

Agree with you, imagine presenting this chart to a board meeting - first question would be what massive event causes trend reversal. The only possible answer I see is extreme, deep and fast penetration of ai + robotics in the industrial sector and a complete new relation between humans and work. Likely to happen but IMHO in 10+ years.

In my book with Guido Ascari on Italy’s economic #decline, we place a lot of emphasis on demographic trends. It seems completely obvious to me that ISTAT’s projections — on which many public finance forecasts rest — are incredibly optimistic about the fertility rate. Does anyone really believe things will turn out as forecast? The chart and the underlying data are available here: app.kalistat.com/p/6a95039c-001…

@IterIntellectus Not even remotely saying that i.e. 24k€/year after taxes (still above the italian median) is "rich" but a bit of context is needed for non-italian readers: 700€/month gets you a way more than decent accomodation outside major cities, a pizza and beer is 15€ etc etc.

people talking about "inner city rich, periphery poor" when the insane part is that the average income of people living in one of the most important cities in Italy and Europe is €20k to €85k ($23k-$99k) europeans are really poor

Ah yes, I forgot the pensions. Those of us (qualified and willing to work HARD) that move abroad feel like we are in Eldorado. Plus I don't feel like I'm surrounded by psychos everytime I drive and the streets are not littered by dog poo, feels incredible to walk looking forward instead of playing the floor is lava. Italy is losing its best sons and daughters at an absolutely alarming rate due to treating them as cash cows to fund the lifestyle of the 60+ (including the colossal debt that those of us who stay will have to pay).

@PanicData @heart_ Boomers that he's paying those taxes to pay their pensions too dare I add

italian work ethic: it’s April 2026 and italian twitter is already collectively crying that all 2027 national holidays fall on Saturday or Sunday

Absolutely lovely product and I look forward to trying it - still I think they worked hard to fit it in that regulatory framework due to the incredibly high cost of certifying it otherwise. Even if you fly something that doesn't require a license getting one is a very smart move, it's one of the most formative experiences you can have.

For $128,000 you can buy a Jetson ONE, take off from your backyard, and never need a pilot's license. Every spec on it is reverse-engineered from a single FAA regulation. Part 103 caps ultralight empty weight at 254 pounds. Jetson built theirs at 189. Part 103 caps level flight at 55 knots. Jetson tops out at 63 mph, exactly that. Part 103 allows one occupant. Jetson built one seat. Stay inside those lines and the FAA does not classify what you are flying as an aircraft. No pilot's license. No medical certificate. No registration. No regulatory oversight of the design. No regulatory oversight of operator competency. That is the entire business model. The $128K buys you exemption from being a pilot. You can see it in the rest of the spec sheet. 13.5 kWh battery for 17 minutes of flight. Open cockpit, helmet required. Daylight only, uncongested areas, away from airports. Every line is a Part 103 rule rendered as hardware. Build it any other way and it stops being an ultralight, which means type certification, which means five years and nine figures before you ship a single unit. Joby has been at it since 2009. Archer since 2018. Combined they have raised over $4 billion building certified eVTOLs. Neither has carried a paying passenger. Jetson started shipping in 2024. Sold out through 2026. Deliveries pushed to 2027. Palmer Luckey took the first production unit. MrBeast flew one down the California coast. The whole point of buying a Jetson is the permission slip that comes with it. Everything else is just hardware.

And the fun thing is that the default option for italian folks in my generation (millenials) when they inherit some money is: BUY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE AND RENT IT OUT! So the prices are sky high, very little gets invested in productive activites and I wonder.... who the hell they'll be renting to in 15 years time?!

German population pyramid: There are twice as many people in their 60s as children born today. Grandparents won’t have enough grandchildren to inherit and use their properties. One must be crazy to invest in residential property in Germany. The same in Spain, Italy and Poland.

US fertility reached 1.57 last year, the lowest ever recorded, and the WSJ explanation is "uncertainty about finances, relationship stability, and the political climate" my great grandma had eleven children during the second world war, in a country being bombed, in a house with no running water, on rations. poor people have always had kids. the poorest people on earth right now still have kids and the financial excuse is a story we tell ourselves because it makes us feel good and the real one is unbearable the real mechanism is that we got rich enough to redefine children as an expense instead of the point. somewhere in the last fifty years the cultural goal inverted and a child stopped being what life is for and became a line item competing with the lifestyle. once you frame it that way the math never works, because the math isnt supposed to work. that's the point we are living in the richest moment in human history and we decided to use the surplus to buy ourselves out of the future. the most prosperous civilization that has ever existed is committing demographic suicide at the altar of personal optimization and comfort, and the official line is that we cant afford it the birthrate is a lagging indicator of a civilization that forgot why it was alive

Funny enough, the implosion of the real estate market (in an absurd bubble due to real estate being the "default option" for most italians with some €s to spare) would be a huge driver for fertility. Hard to start a family when a crappy apartment is 10 full years of the median wage, not to talk about a decent house...

This chart explains why Poland, Italy & Spain can no longer reverse their demographic crisis with pro-family policies. Median age of women in Europe is 46 Like it or not, smart immigration is the only solution to avoid an implosion of pension & healthcare systems and real estate

@stats_feed Cursor Local aeroclub membership

What membership is 100% worth every penny you pay for it?

These two photographs are separated by only 66 years.

@TylerPurcell24 Looking at their website seems that 2 (or more?) people will be able to share it. Having a lie-flat space for 2 at the price of 3 economy class tickets would be an incredible deal.

Had to check to make sure it wasn’t April Fools. Wonder what the economics will be. Cheaper than a single first class ticket to buy the whole row?

@united How many people max in that row? Anyway, good job! One reason more for you to be my favourite (by far!) US airline.

The entire row is alllllll yours. Welcome to United Relax Row, three adjacent United Economy seats with adjustable leg rests that can each be raised or lowered to create a cozy lie-flat space for stretching out... You'll also get a mattress pad, blanket and two pillows. If you’re traveling with kids, a plushie too! United Relax Row will be available starting next year on more than 200 of our 787s and 777s, each with up to 12 of these brand-new rows. united.com/Elevated

A shitty job was what really got me started, to the point of going back to college at 25. Also, finding out about a slight neurodivergence was pivotal in learning how to "get myself to do stuff" - make sure this isn't the case for her also. Not worse, not better than "normal" just a different user experience I'd say.

@Reboticant Definitely outside of the box thinking and don’t hate the idea!

My wife and I were talking the other day about potential career options for my 15 yrs old daughter who really struggles in school and is likely not college bound/material. For guys it’s easy… Don’t want to go to college, pick a trade or figure something else out such as a police officer, firefighter etc. It’s not as easy for girls. I think she would do well in sales since she is attractive, has the personality and is extremely social (spends hours everyday talking on the phone to all her friends). For parents with daughters who aren’t on the college path…what are some real, high-income career options you’ve seen work?

@bluewmist Agree - yet there is a huge difference between "traveling" and "touristing". The latter is very popular, the former not so much.

travel. travel. travel. i've never once regretted spending money on travel. it always pays off in growth, perspective, and memories. You meet people you never would’ve met, learn things no classroom could teach, and see how big and beautiful the world really is. money comes back. experiences don't and the stories you bring home are worth more than anything you left behind.