Paris Analyst

@JonCukierwar @ragingbullcap Thanks & great writeup. Makes a lot of sense that theater chains need an upsell that works. Will take a look!

1. No concern on concentration. Once a theater installs D-BOX seats they almost never remove them. Cinemark has a healthy balance sheet no risk of near-term bankruptcy. Rollout in U.S. I estimate has ~2 years before potential saturation. New chain wins expected by then. 2. The opposite. Screen wins have accelerated significantly since new CEO joined June 2025. Last quarter alone +86 new screens which was close to what old CEO did each year. New CEO & CCO are "meeting with everybody" in CEO's words (recent Microcapclub interview). I'm expecting theater chain win announcements in months ahead. 3. The opposite. Data is clear utilization for D-BOX and PLFs has been increasing as box office becomes more and more blockbuster heavy. D-BOX is also focusing foremost on U.S. theater chain wins (have almost none atm) where they are underpenetrated relative to other countries where they have a presence e.g. Canada, Germany. See thoughts in greater depth here: sohrapeakcapital.com/wp-content/upl… Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be and does not constitute investment or financial advice. You should not make any decision based on the information presented without conducting independent due diligence. Sohra Peak Capital Partners LP and/or its affiliates including myself hold a position in the security mentioned and may change that position at any time. Please carefully read the disclaimer included and linked in my profile biography.

$DBO.TO Some thoughts on why I believe this is extremely silly below $.70/share. DBOX ended CY 2025 with $16m or ~$0.07/share in cash, very little of which is needed to run the business. That balance should be higher now, so you're paying less than $0.62/share today for the enterprise Using even TTM FCF of ~$12m, that's an 11x FCF multiple for a growing royalty biz. FCF is going way higher given 1) system growth and 2) a box office that is tracking significantly higher than 2025 already. On the box office piece of the equation, the market has picked up on this in other names in the sector (IMAX, CNK), but DBOX investors appear to be struggling to understand this. The are a variety of free places to track this (e.g. Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, updates from the operators). Q1 26 is already tracking slightly ahead of last year, which is a big deal because industry estimates have the rest of the year comping well ahead as there is an abundance of tentpole films being released from here until year-end. That starts with Project Hail Mary (next week) and Mario (April 1). "The Numbers" estimates $9.9B for the 2026 box office vs. $8.7B last year (~+14%). So at a minimum, TTM royalties of $13.7m should increase to $15.6m over the NTM (basically all margin). But that understates the likely result for a couple reasons. 1. Over-indexing. PLF's have been capturing share so will grow faster than the box office. Moreover, DBOX will benefit from the film slate this year, as the format favors family and action films (which will dominate in 26): Mario, Hoopers, Toy Story, Avengers, etc. Notably, as I flagged in a prior tweet, Avengers is expected to be the largest film this year and it does not have an IMAX window because Dune secured it, meaning DBOX should hugely overindex for this blockbuster. 2. System growth. Screens have grown by ~13% over LTM and given what we know (deferred revenue lift, proposed financing structures, system sale revenues last Q, commentary on backlog, etc.), I suspect there's at least another 10% growth from here through year-end. So we have box office expected to grow +14% + general over-indexing + the right content slate for the format + an average system count 10-20% higher than the comp period. That's likely good for $18m of royalties for the calendar year. Even haircutting 2025 System sale revenues by a little, that's >$55m of NTM revenue, which should translate to ~$15m of FCF. Assuming most of that piles up on the balance sheet, we exit with ~$.12/share of cash, implying $.57/share for the enterprise by year-end or 8x TTM FCF. DD yield for a high margin royalty biz with limited competition risk, leverage over all participants in the value chain (exhibitors and studios benefit hugely from PLFs), and vast remaining whitespace is silly. My personal view is that mgmt should initiate a capital return policy in the near-term, ideally buybacks but a dividend would also suffice. I get the flexibility of having cash, but pro forma cash of nearly $30m by year-end would clearly be overcapitalized even with the financing prospects, and the cash is a major drag on the type of ROE that makes these business models so attractive. I would be surprised if we don't see some movement on this front during the year. DYODD.

@JonCukierwar @ragingbullcap Interested & going to look. Any concerns about: 1. Cinemark concentration or rollout pace? 2. Ability to land new large chains and/or legitimate TAM ceiling? 3. Price premium per seat or utilization degrading? (Perhaps as expanding into weaker markets or as novelty wears off?)

Great summary. The box office visibility is an underappreciated point. Boxofficemojo.com shows that as of today, Q1 CY26 box office is already 96.6% of Q1 CY25, with 2 of 13 weekends still ahead including this weekend's release of Project Hail Mary. Estimates from The Numbers suggest box office this Q1 should finish +8-10% YoY above last year's Q1. And, D-BOX began the quarter with +17% more screens than last year. Holding all else constant, this implies +25-27% higher royalties for Q1 CY26 YoY (or for D-BOX Q4 FY26). As @ragingbullcap mentions consensus does have $9.9bn box office estimate for CY26 of +14% YoY actual $8.7bn last year.

@FZucchi IG spread still nowhere near 150, HY nowhere near 450. So even though we shouldn't be near funding stress levels, think something about speed of tightening signals something?

IG/HY spreads +3.2/+14.4bps tdy. +20/+60bps from Jan tights. $SPY only 5% from ATH and only 5pts from the 200dma ($658.60). Put things together and "risk is rising fast". $QQQ $IWM

@noyesclt @Compound_Cap @brunotrocoli Seconded. Subscriber to your newsletter & setting up my own this weekend. Would love to hear how you started!

It was the most fun project I’ve done in 15 yrs. Sounds like a topic for the newsletter. Will pencil it out. After you get it running your just talking to it through a messaging app like “hey the newsletter missed too many retailer announcements around xxx how do we fix it “. Claw then responds with ideas and you say “yeah make those changes”. It’s just amazing.

Today's Payment Brief from my OpenClaw "PmtClaw". blog.starpointllp.com/?na=view&id=5

$EVLV Q4 solid, agree with everything below. My long term question is this: There are probably ~120k open slots out of a 160k unit TAM for existing use cases. How many do we think Evolv wins over the next 5 years? Evolv has an 8k unit fleet right now earning ~$15k ARR/unit @ ~70% cash gross margin on ARR. Rough TAM math: -US schools (MS+HS). 40k sites * 2 / site = 80k units. 30% adopted metal detectors or weapons detectors? -US hospitals. 6k sites * 8/site incl outpatient = 48k units. 5% adopted? -US warehouses. 20k sites * 1/site = 20k units. Majority on metal detectors, <5% on weapons detectors. -Non-US stadiums. 2k sites * 6/site = 12k units. Majority on metal detectors, <5% on weapons detectors. -Not including offices or most non-US sites in this 160k number. If they nail one of these verticals in the next 2 years (hospitals are my best guess), then the stock looks compelling here. Evolv is now the only weapons detector selected as a preferred provider by the American Hospital Association. Time will tell...

$SPHR casually selling shows 1 year in advance now?

$RELY looks like *significant* EBITDA upside surprise this year. Sellside modeling ~16% cash opex growth excl. marketing. Meanwhile, Remitly shut down foreign offices in January '26 + possible hiring freeze in place. Think makes us <7x '27e EV/EBITDA... en.globes.co.il/en/article-rem…

@LilyFunds Originally @stoic_point (no surprise!)

$EVLV keeps winning “Erie’s largest hospital upped its security, launching some new technology this week at the main entrance. UPMC Hamot recently installed the Evolv Weapons Detection System in its front lobby.” hospital located in Erie, Pennsylvania With more to come… @EvolvTechnology “Hamot has plans to install Evolv at the Magee Women’s Hospital in the near future.” Great catch @ParisAnalyst 🫡 yourerie.com/news/local-new…

@noyesclt Great note. But wouldn’t MMF-sweep stablecoins pose the same deposit flight risk as rewards-yield stablecoins?

New Blog - Clarity Act: Stablecoin Rewards "Only Hope". Status in the Senate, positions and politics of key players, timeline, Impact on OCC guidance and key scenarios of how I see this playing out. blog.starpointllp.com/2026/02/stable…

@Fierce__beast @traderjoe2869 Yes, it's f(throughput, false alarm rate)

@ParisAnalyst @traderjoe2869 When i spoke to 2 dealers, throughput is the same at both. Throughput means nothing because you can adjust how accurate you want the system to go so you can get more people in if you want but sacrifice some accuracy. it's very adjustable

bull case for $evlv below: "Opengate has really worked with the low/mid-end customers. Tend to see Express/Expedite at customers with more budget." If that were true why was opengate at the Moma? If opengate is winning Moma -- i would consider this a high security location -- why would they not win other venues over time as they are 1) cheaper and 2) better resourced and 3) can also eventually implement app based analytics etc like EVLV. Also how is the pivot from Schools to commercial going for $EVLV -- is that in line with expectations, are the economics improving as they win incremental commercial contracts?

@Fierce__beast @traderjoe2869 I think you're tapping on the right vein. Opengate is solid -- used at museums, some stadiums, many high profile venues. Some customers prefer the cheaper product and accept slower throughput. The Evolv bet is that enough customers want the best, which seems to be the case

@traderjoe2869 @ParisAnalyst Me too, that's why i was so surprised to see it at the MoMa!

Yes I've spoken with channel partners. Opengate is basically a souped-up metal detector, can't determine threat location, mostly detects amount of metal. Evolv Express shows threat location on an iPad & is much wider, allowing more throughput at lower false alarm rate. Express single lane retails for ~$80k vs ~$25-30k for an Opengate, before discounts. Traditional metal detectors can run ~$10k. Evolv also has an automated x-ray bag scanner called Expedite, retails ~$50k. Express + Expedite customers say their false alarm rate is only ~2%, which is what really drives throughput improvements. Think of this as directionally accurate, as actual false alarm rates depend on customer settings / physical environment / etc Opengate has really worked with the low/mid-end customers. Tend to see Express/Expedite at customers with more budget. Evolv has regularly won events like the Olympics/World Cup, but think you're right to follow the risk that Opengate becomes somehow 'good enough' to win the marginal customer. Definitely worth your time to DD.

@ParisAnalyst have you spoken to any independent dealers on opengate vs evolve?

went to the moma and saw this. i have bearish on $EVLV because pricing was 2-3x higher than competitors but quality of security or throughput was not and now it looks like the competitors are creating similar aesthetics to EVLV machines anyone have updated views on $evlv long or short? things like pricing vs competitors, are they still shifting heavy into commercial and away from school and how is that strategy going for them so far? are they beating expectations there, or have they been overoptimistic on expansion rates?

@Fierce__beast Just to be clear after a DM I received -- bookings tracker roughly equates to gross new ARR deployed over time. Multiple quarters like 2h25 pace needed for 25+% unit growth. And this is separate from accounting change that depresses '26 gaap revenue and boosts '27 gaap revenue

@Fierce__beast Note that bookings != gaap revenue. Deployed revenue can lag bookings by 6-18 months depending on rollout schedule.

$WEAV the happy customers on TrueLark (acquired co that is the base of the LLM agent) apparently pay $2k-3k ARPU today. You can run the math on how impactful this would be to Weave if they nail it.

$WEAV LLM agent won't be as fully featured as Podium Jerry on day 1, but the new bookings lift should be material if it works as advertised. Heard mixed reviews about the summer '25 version, hear better things now. We'll see how adoption looks this summer

For those of you who are still following Q4 earnings in smallcap software/internet land (bless you), a few thoughts on $RELY and $WEAV --