Paris Analyst

@willshawison @commbankerguy Ha. Think I'm hearing the wrong thing from the wrong people?

@ParisAnalyst @commbankerguy lol.

For my banking peeps, I’ve heard some harsh criticism by multiple banks on MANTL. Sales people that don’t understand product, PMs that are ignorant to details on setup and telling the banks what additional services they need up front. Delayed timelines by 12 months or more and awful service.

Grok 4.5 is SpaceXAI's smartest model built for coding, agentic tasks, and knowledge work that excels at skills and MCP use.

@atelicinvest @Larryjamieson_ DMing you

can anyone familiar with this name please slide into my DM - i would love for you to tell me how bad my clanker research is. @Larryjamieson_ ?

I'm way late on this But what is happening to Hemnet is *so* fascinating.

@RonaldEvers @ACapitalLP @ragingbullcap Yes, implying Telefonica may take out Digi instead. If they can do that, market repair / pricing power would be v helpful. Also think I underestimated them slowing the buyback. They've given themselves huge incentive for future dividends/buybacks though, so it's coming...

@ACapitalLP @ragingbullcap @ParisAnalyst Agree on this - given change of tone lately - zegona mngnt flagged they consider it to be a forever hold asset instead of exit

$ZEG.L Leaving vantage should result in ~70m EUR of cost savings in a couple years. This + the recent refi adds ~130m to equity FCF. Still a number of initiatives beyond that to grow earnings and reach the new goal of 1B EBITDA-capex from 800m today, with more of that available for the shareholders. Will get a mix of buyback and dividend policy announced later this quarter. Recent weakness in the stock doesn't make a ton of sense to me. briefs.co/news/vodafone-…

@CorneliaLake Probably sitting on a tough Q2 print, but that shouldn't matter given the embedded profitability. Enjoyed chatting on this one -- onto the next

@ParisAnalyst Disgusting deal. Hope the True Wind and Bregal LPs are happy with this.

$LPRO take private before I posted the writeup! Great buy for Amtrust. TLDR: LPRO began booking certs below profitability in 2025. True runrate EBITDA is >$65m, so they paid <6x. LPRO also won Toyota for used vehicle & may expand to new / other brands. investors.openlending.com/news-releases/…

@CorneliaLake Update: Amtrust only paying ~3.25x '27e EBITDA for $LPRO. Management case was >$100m EBITDA including synergies. Tender likely goes through, though a topping bid would make sense for numerous buyers if they could move quickly enough. (cc @CorneliaLake)

Really thought we would get to ride this to $8-$10 as the auto lending market continues to normalize + the conservative accounting flows into EBITDA. Will be looking for related ideas in the space too. Kudos to @CorneliaLake as well on this

@RhysSullivan Why PostHog vs Amplitude vs Mixpanel? Got curious and played with first two. Do love the PostHog feel, but didn't see a substantial feature difference?

There a similar thing with products, I sort of view something like PostHog as the perfect product for agents now 35+ products in one would be too much for regular people, but for agents it makes them better

@FuzzyPandaShort Jack was one of a kind. Typically first $ into former students’ funds too, just to give you that initial boost. Still flip through my notes from time to time. Will be missed

The Andrew Left guilty verdict is a painful reminder that as short sellers we are all 2nd class citizens But we still think there's a stark difference among short-sellers. There are the ones that believe their own work & stay short the shit-cos for the long-haul. A short story about the founding of Fuzzy Panda Research: We actually engaged with activists like Left early in our short-selling career (~10-15 years ago). It both felt icky and was incredibly frustrating. We kept asking ourselves the same questions: - Why give away months/years of our work to some random guy? - Especially if they will cover their position day 1 & won't be around to fight the long fight? Even worse they would often mess up the short thesis because they hadn't done the work and didn't understand the details. One of the worst/weirdest interactions we had was back in the Summer of 2017 when we attempted to help Andrew Left on a short idea. We'd spent months working all summer long sending Andrew lots of details on an auto company that we believed used predatory financing to steal from consumers. It was disgusting how the company would use usurious fees to entrap poor people in a cycle of poverty. This company somehow had even repo'ed a car when there was still a baby in the back seat. But at the end of summer 2017, Left called me: "It's time. I'm finally publishing on what we've been working. It's happening this week!"~Left (I thought, thank god, finally! But then the next words immediately shocked me): "We are finally going to expose Ubiquiti" ~Left "Wtf!?" ~Me "What?! i thought you'd be excited?" ~Left "Andrew! I'm not working on Ubiquiti with you." ~Me "uh, umm. Well......I'm doing Ubiquiti this week, we will do the other one next week." ~Left (Note-Ubiquiti Inc is tech co that makes wireless enterprise communication products...it's not at all related to predatory auto financing. Also for some plainly obvious reasons I decided to stop speaking to Andrew about investment ideas right after that) Crappy interactions like that ultimately led me to ask one of my advisors from business school, the late Jack McDonald, his thoughts. At the time we were talking about a different fraud that was going through a painful short squeeze (a Chinese bank that had a fake HQ in NYC & was pretending to be an American Co. It had even tricked the FTSE-Russell into adding them into the Russell 2000) Professor McDonald was an investing legend. He was close friends with all my own investing heros: Andreas Halvorsen (from Viking), Jim Coulter, the SPO founders, and even Charlie Munger & Warren Buffett. But more importantly Jack was not only a great investor but he was a great human. All advise from Jack was gold and the advise he gave that day about this Chinese fraud changed the course of my career... "Don't be afraid to use your own voice. You have freedom of speech too. The information you found is amazing. Everyone has to know about it. ~Jack Then Jack gave me a wink & a smile and said "Let's expose these guys" So that is how Fuzzy Panda Research was born Why a Fuzzy Panda? Because it is a completely ridiculous name. For anyone to believe a Fuzzy Panda the research must be damn good. It is also hilarious when a management team puts out a press release saying that "an evil fuzzy panda is out to get them." Plus early on it was a solid bonus that the anonymity was like a warm security blanket, it protected our identities just in case this whole fuzzy panda thing didn't work out and we all needed to get real jobs at a hedge funds later. So how do we think the Andrew Left verdict affects activist short-sellers? - For some (that like to smash & grab or flip out of a position day one) it's a complete game changer - For others, like us, probably nothing But we are a different breed short-seller. The degenerate short-seller! The one that truly believes their our own work & will fight through short squeezes. (Tag your favorite degenerate short-seller below)

@dalibali2 $WEAV still cheap if that AI receptionist works. Henry Schein guys say the phone based exchange is 1 of only 2 in that world. $NCNO still cheap on FY28 FCF (consensus not showing the lift as billing model hits) & upside if the agent sandbox for banking takes hold

BILL prob the only thing that still looks dirt cheap? anything else?

@evrgn11112231 @Process_Cap And to think I passed at $20 because I couldn't underwrite the M&A side...

@Process_Cap @ParisAnalyst Don't know who Extant is. But they right on PRM.

A few quick Sohn pitches. Longs: $IFX on AI rev from 5% to 25% of total by '29. Thinks 25x p/e on '28 revs = 94 EUR/sh by end '27, 58% upside. $PRM sees 30+% EBITDA cagr from here, mostly from value creating M&A. In-house talent for M&A underappreciated, e.g. ex-Extant guys re-running the Extant playbook. >10% operating margin improvement at each unit. Thinks 2x 3-4y. $AXON ex Coatue guy argues "AI agents for officers." AI plan charges $559/officer/mo vs old $99/officer/mo. $750m '25 AI plan bookings. Think revenue 2.5x in 3y, EBITDA nearly 3x in 3y. $APP 3y 25% revenue cagr as ecom vertical takes off & improved models drive improved ROAS. 20x '30e $50 EPS = $1,000 stock. Fastest L36M revenue growth and highest EBIT/employee in the S&P. $CVNA getting to MSD/HSD used auto share means north of 30% revenue growth for a long time. $VTRS rescheduling sleeping drug from EU to the US for wakefulness + another drug in SPV = 6x-8x upside. (Missed part of this one, sorry) Korean holdcos at discount to the parts, eg Samsung Life. Korean consumer exposure as SK Hynix & Samsung bonuses of 10% of operating profit spill over into consumption. $TTMI printed circuit board unit growth + increased complexity means topline growth at very high incremental margins. And defense segments in budget epicycle. $CPT sun belt multifamily REIT with improving supply picture driving pricing power. More of a low beta, MSD downside, 40% upside frame. Shorts: $OSIS Sedona contract recognized 80%, collected mid 30s % of cash. May need to revise recognized revenue down materially. $RZLV 4x revs for a promotional stock looter buying declining software assets. Significant related party cashouts. Online classifieds like $REA.AU if MSD pricing power breaks. (Didn't catch every pitch, but should give a sense)

@Noicewon11 Just generic. Kind of in the context of “what is low short interest now that is a decent short over next few years?”

@ParisAnalyst Just a generic pitch, or any substance how GPTs links to the agents/intermediaries etc?

@Noicewon11 It was the AI classifieds short thesis. Will eg Zillow lose incremental property searches to ChatGPT, and if so does that reduce advertising pricing power? Tough debate bc likely won’t hit the numbers for a few years

@ParisAnalyst What was the substance to REA pp break?

@Process_Cap 100%. Off of memory, I think they FOIA'd the 2024 $PRM contracts to get a sense of price ∆s by line. There was also an interesting comment: "Many of the board are talented short sellers. When smart short sellers go long, it's worth paying attention."

@ParisAnalyst Been looking for those $PRM notes. Thank you very much! Hoping that they put out videos of the pitches in a few weeks like they did last year

@astridwilde1 @vineelyalamarth Yeah I think that makes a ton of sense. Buddy of mine runs a top 10 gaming app in the Middle East. What's interesting is that game player demographics keep expanding. (And not to sound awful but if hantavirus becomes a thing...)

@ParisAnalyst @vineelyalamarth I think games are under monetized as a category and yeah as new categories of ads come to games we'll just see incredible ROAS

"We're still running under 30 day breakeven on the dollars we're spending. We're doing a mix of paid marketing and sponsorships." ...none of us own enough $APP

@astridwilde1 @vineelyalamarth Late to reading this, but sure looks like a long runway to me: arxiv.org/abs/2402.17152 I haven't seen public disclosures on AppLovin's model vs Meta's. Think the longer runway function of newly unlocked ecommerce / self-serve / mediation views / smaller size / something else?

@ParisAnalyst @vineelyalamarth They both are going to continue making incredible improvements. I think the runway ahead for $APP is orders of magnitude longer. I own both