@biancoresearch I think Iran's strategy is to keep this going until the mid-terms and show the Western world how politically damaging a decision to go to war with them was. High oil is the cause, political devastation is the effect.
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Pazman13
422 posts
I detailed Iran's strategy in this thread yesterday.
x.com/biancoresearch…
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch
1/4 If Iran holds on and continues to prevent shipping in the Strait and chaos in the region, because of the POTENTIAL threat they pose, they extract an ever higher price from the developed world, inevitably leading to higher prices for Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium. Iran's strategy is that the world says the cost is not worth it, and they voluntarily withdraw.
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Big news from Trump about 20 minutes ago (and ~90 minutes before the market reopens on Sunday night in Asia):
The US will start Naval Escorts called "Operation Protect Freedom" tomorrow!
As I noted in the repost below (from Friday), the US was "stuck" until the circumstances changed. It now seems they are about to change tomorrow!
Some possible outcomes (hoping for #1 or #2, fearing #3 and #4)
1. US escorts ships out, Iran does nothing, this is over
2. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships that the US can repel, this is over
3. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships and hits them, or they hit a mine. The image of burning ships is a disaster for the Navy and the US, especially if it's a US warship.
4. The US keeps threatening to do this, but the Navy never actually does it (akin to them not firing on the 40 or so fast boats in the Strait today when Trump said they would a several days ago). The US can be criticized for talking a big game with little action.
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch
The bottom line is the Iran War is "stuck." No War (shooting) No Peace No Shipping No Crude Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium And it will stay "stuck" until circumstances change. The most likely change ... * The US/Israel restart kinetic attacks with the goal of forcing the Iranians to their position * The Iranians hold the stalemate long enough to drive up crude oil prices to intolerable levels for the developed world to get the US/Israelis to accept their positions. I guess a third option is that the blockade imposes unbearable economic pain on the Iranians to force them to accept the US positions. I say "guess" because the thinking now is this might take a long time, which plays into the Iranian point above about holding the stalemate to drive up crude oil prices to intolerable levels. As we are starting to understand, the Iranian regime has a high tolerance for economic pain, and the larger population cannot overthrow them. So, the maximum pain point, the so-called "tank top" of their crude oil storage facilities getting full, might be several weeks away.
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@darioperkins @biancoresearch flagged that this was likely to happen several months ago. Can't remember if he said would be this meeting or the previous.
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The dumb take is that Powell has lost control. The smart take is that this is the FOMC telling Warsh he wont have control...
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@green78499 @HydroGraphInc Thank you. Was Hydrograph asked to present or do you know how they got there?
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$HGRAF
@HydroGraphInc
Some final thoughts on the Detriot SPE Automotive show.
One of my biggest frustrations as a shareholder in $HGRAF has been CEO Kjirsten limiting information due to NDA'S. Well, at the show, I was directly asked by more than one company not to post images or information placing said company or entity at the show. The request was convincing. I have a fresh appreciation for the burden CEO Kjirsten is carrying.
Two more points I'd also like to speak to. I mentioned that graphene was not mentioned in any of the sessions I attended. This is true but not exclusive to Hydrograph. No graphene from any graphene company was mentioned. Olivier told me that Dr. Weiner Xu of the University of Tennessee did mention graphene in his session entitled: Functional and Sustainable Polymer Composites & Their Advanced Manufacturing for Automotive Applications.
The final point I want to make is the fact Hydrograph was the only graphene company present that I encountered and for sure the only graphene company presenting. Hats off to CEO Kjirsten and her team for boldly going where no other graphene company dares to venture.
Hydrograph is the tip of the spear leading the graphene breakthrough into the world.
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@EsquireDePalma @megynkelly There is only one stupid blonde bimbo here mate and it isn't Kelly. What kind of dumb shit starts a war and then is so desperate to end it. Trump is weak, dumb, and gutless.
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@megynkelly It’s call the art of negotiation, keep your enemies guessing. But being the stupid bimbo you are Kelly, you would never be able to grasp the concept.
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Sun, Rubio: “the Strait of Hormuz will reopen one way or another” (Al Jaz’ra)
Mon, Trump: “if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately 'Open for Business,' we will …blow up…all of [Iran’s] Electric Plants, Oil Wells & Kharg Island” (Tr. Soc)
Mon: “Trump tells aides he’s willing to end war without opening Hormuz” (wsj)
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$HG $HGRAF Who got this right? @CHSGolfEvents is the fattened pig. Sad.
Charleston Golf@CHSGolfEvents
Everyone keeps getting duped by Capybara "Research" and derpy Igor. One dbag in Brazil continues to make up stories to crush companies he's taken short interest in, and he recruits the smooth-brained window lickers on X to do his dirty work. $HG $HGRAF is just the newest target🧵
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Toilet paper is now the best global macro hedge.
abc.net.au/news/2026-03-2…
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Why will central banks and monetary policy is a dead man walking:
I’m 44 years old. I have a young family—two children aged six and three—and a mortgage. This week, the RBA announced another interest rate increase because inflation is once again considered a problem.
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@SpencerHakimian You forgot Iran build a bomb anyway because this war has not met a single objective.
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Let me predict the future for you.
Oil Stays >$100 for a few more days.
Trump panics as he sees his Poll Numbers collapse further.
Trump makes some schizophrenic truth social post that the U.S. won this war.
U.S. soldiers leave Iran.
The Ayatollah’s Son just got a 40 year reign courtesy of the Red White & Blue.
Trump & Hegseth bomb Cuba next.
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