Pastrr
3 posts
@Pastrrfun
Aggregating prediction liquidity. Build cross market parlays. Engineer yield from market conviction. No coin.
Not more than naive traders. Fundamentally, anyone who is -EV on a prediction market is running an algorithm other than (linear) truthseeking, and so no matter what, their buys will push prices away from their "correct" level. The argument for why prediction markets are truth-seeking despite this is that each such trader creates more motivation for sophisticated traders to come in and do even more and better research to identify what the "correct" price levels are, and profitably bid against them. This is the same for naive traders and for hedgers (and, for that matter, a fourth category I missed: people trying to manipulate social processes that take prediction market prices as an input)
Deep funding is continuing, and recently finished a major round! gov.gitcoin.co/t/gg23-predict… I think my main advice to @devanshmehta is to keep refining this (incl the prediction market version) but figure out how to make sure that the details of the design, the funding sources, etc are all compatible with chaotic era needs [see my recent tweets on democratic things: firefly.social/post/x/2030781… ]. I think deep funding already is compatible with (ii) being meritocratic and not being over-egalitarian in a dumb way, and (iii) getting benefits from AI in a way compatible with human agency. But as for (i), when I look at the construction now, there's definitely a "stable era" vibe to it ("let's make a big large-scale gadget that crystallizes a principle of justice and all socially agree to pump money into it"), and we want to think about how to make it work in a world that doesn't work that way.
