Pat19eighty4

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Pat19eighty4

Pat19eighty4

@Pat19eighty4

Passive & not so passive observer. If I fave a tweet, it maybe to serve as a bookmark. RT doesn't always equal endorsement. I delete tweets.

United Kingdom Katılım Şubat 2011
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Arnaud Bertrand
Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand·
This is stunning: it looks like Iran degraded American military bases into unusability across an entire theater, simultaneously. As far as I know, no other U.S. adversary has achieved that, ever. This is directly reported in the NYT (nytimes.com/2026/03/25/us/…): they write that Iran has rendered "many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops [...] all but uninhabitable." As the article describes, "there were close to 40,000 U.S. troops in the region when the war started, and Central Command has dispersed thousands of them, some to as far away as Europe." Those troops that do remain are "not on their original bases" but have been "relocated to hotels and office spaces throughout the region." Genuinely incredible.
Arnaud Bertrand tweet media
Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand

I don't think people realize just how extraordinary what we're witnessing with Iran is. I was arguing with a dear journalist friend of mine yesterday who was telling me that Iran was winning, yes, but only on the strategic level, not tactically. The type of thing a skinny kid getting stuffed in lockers in highschool tells himself to make himself feel better: "These people will BEG to work for me in ten years. Everyone knows jocks peak in highschool. They'll literally beg." 😏 I think that's precisely wrong, and that's what makes the Iran war different. As of now, Iran is in fact holding its own tactically too. Think about other U.S. wars of aggression these past few decades. Take Vietnam, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Serbia, etc. (the list is unfortunately very long). The pattern was roughly always the same with an immense power differential between aggressor and victim. These wars were, by and large, imperial: the empire attempting to crush a much weaker people whose only realistic recourse was guerrilla resistance. And that is when they actually had the will to resist: some - like Libya - barely even bothered, just resigning themselves to their fate (despite being, at the time, the richest country in Africa). As spectators of these wars, if you had any moral sense, the dominant emotion was a kind of helpless disgust: you were watching a giant stomp through someone else's house. Sure, the U.S. actually lost many - if not most - of these wars, famously replacing the Taliban with the Taliban or being expelled with their tail between their legs from Vietnam, but the power differential was no less real for it. It's just that power doesn't always guarantee victory: sometimes the giant can't kill everyone, and eventually tires of trying. But the “victories” won this way were always pyrrhic at best: the people endured, yes, but what they were left with was a country in ashes that takes decades to rebuild. Meanwhile, in the grand scheme of things, the giant walked away with little more than a bruised ego. Iran is - remarkably - proving to be an entirely different beast: when others were merely surviving a giant, Iran appears to be able to compete with one. What just happened over the past 48 hours is the best illustration of this. You had the President of the United States issue a formal ultimatum: reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or we "obliterate" your power grid. Iran's response was essentially: we dare you, if you do this we'll make all your Gulf allies uninhabitable within a week. And, as we saw, Trump backed down: pretexting non-existent "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Iran, he said his ultimatum no-longer applied (or, rather, became 5 days). Adding he now envisaged the Strait of Hormuz being “jointly controlled by me and the Ayatollah.” To the amusement of Iran’s diplomacy (x.com/IraninSA/statu…). That, folks, is a textbook tactical victory. It is, remarkably, Iran demonstrating in this instance that it had escalation dominance over the United States of America. That is, the ability to credibly threaten consequences so severe that the US - for perhaps the first time since the Cold War - found it preferable to stand down. That's no skinny kid being locked in a locker dreaming of revenge fantasies. That's the kid grabbing the bully's wrist mid-shove and watching his face change. And it's not the only tactical victory in this war so far. Take the episode over the Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars gas facility. Iran had warned that if that happened U.S. allies in the region - including Israel - would face a symmetrical response. And they delivered: famously devastating Qatar's Ras Laffan facility - which produced roughly 20% of global LNG supply - and leading, according to Qatar themselves, to a $20 billion loss of annual revenue for the next 5 years (oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-…). Not only that but they also managed to hit Israel's Haifa refinery (aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19…), one of the country's most strategic and protected sites. The result was Trump distancing himself from the South Pars attack, saying that Israel had "violently lashed out" unilaterally and that "NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field." Israel then said it wouldn't strike Iran energy sites anymore (bloomberg.com/news/articles/…). From where I stand, that's another tactical victory. It is, at least, Iran demonstrating that is can fight back **symmetrically** against the U.S. and its allies. Not through asymmetric resistance with IEDs hidden in the roadside or traps hidden in the jungle, but eye for eye, and against some of the most heavily protected sites on the U.S.'s side. That's qualitatively different from any other adversaries the U.S. has directly fought in recent wars. There's plenty more, such as the pretty relevant fact that Iran has gained control of the single most strategic energy chokepoint on earth and the U.S. is finding it impossible to break that control. To the point where Trump has been reduced to publicly begging China - of all countries - for help, which given Trump's ego mustn't have been easy to do. Only to be told no. By China. And by everyone else he asked. This is the topic of my latest article: how this is, in fact, the first genuine "multipolar war." First, in the narrow sense: because Iran is revealing itself to be a genuine pole of power - not a superpower, but an actor that cannot be submitted, which is all multipolarity is. And second, because the war itself is accelerating multipolarity everywhere else: the U.S. has never been more isolated, never looked weaker and its security guarantees have never been more hollow. In my article I lay out the full scoreboard - military, economic, political - and explain why this war has already changed the world, regardless of how it ends. Enjoy the read here: open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbert…

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Mouin Rabbani
Mouin Rabbani@MouinRabbani·
As I've previously stated, Israel's aspiration to become a regional hegemon is pure delusional hubris. Israel is too small and vulnerable, lacks the required demographic and resource base, and is fully dependent on external support. Already in Iran we are learning that Israel has bitten off more than the US can chew on its behalf. A state that can't decisively defeat a second-order militia like Hamas, or administer a fatal blow to Hizballah, and needs the full might of the US to wage war against Iran - a state under comprehensive sanctions since the 1970s - is now threatening to take on NATO member Turkey? Pure delusional hubris. And after hubris comes nemesis.
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim@academic_la

The IDF Chief of Staff has warned that the IDF is on the verge of collapse after 900 straight days of war. This is what he told the government yesterday: 1) Reservists are being stretched to a breaking point across multiple active fronts simultaneously: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, West Bank, and the Iranian front 2) No ultra-Orthodox conscription law has been passed, leaving thousands exempt from service in practice 3) The cabinet approved the legalization of dozens more outposts and farms in the West Bank, requiring additional troops to protect them 4) Jewish nationalist terrorism is surging in the West Bank, requiring an additional battalion to be deployed there, with possibly another needed soon 5) Mandatory service is set to shorten to 30 months in January 2027, the opposite of the IDF's request to extend it to 36 months 6) The government is avoiding passing the necessary laws (conscription, reserves, extended service) largely due to political pressures related to the Haredi exemption controversy The expansionist policies of the government are straining the army to the point of no return. The IDF cannot carry this load and will "collapse into itself" according to the Chief of Staff soon if the wars of expansion do not stop. Israel is simply not big enough and not rich enough to dominate the Middle East in the long-term.

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Jeremy Clancy Productions
Jeremy Clancy Productions@JeremyClancy·
Really proud to have created this film for @MothinAli It starts with a racist encounter — “why don’t you f*** off back to where you came from.” So he did. He came back to Sheffield and his working class roots.
The Green Party@TheGreenParty

It's time to see past our differences and remember what connects us. When we realise where our strength lies - in each other - that's when change happens. Join us - join.greenparty.org.uk

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Prem Sikka
Prem Sikka@premnsikka·
Bank of London fined puny £2m for filing fake documents with regulator to conceal its financial position. Fine reduced from £12m because that "would cause serious financial hardship." Peter Mandelson was a director until 2024. No exec fined/prosecuted. bankofengland.co.uk/news/2026/marc…
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Richard Murphy
Richard Murphy@RichardJMurphy·
Stopping crypto donations to political parties is not enough. Stopping donations is what is required. We don’t need to end some political corruption. We need to end all political corruption.
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Karl Turner MP
Karl Turner MP@KarlTurnerMP·
I don’t believe McSwindle had his iPhone stolen. 🤷🏼‍♂️
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Dan Bilzerian
Dan Bilzerian@DanBilzerian·
Trump: We are winning this war, Iran is out of missiles Iran shoots down our jets and continues to hit Israel Trump: You have 2 days to open the straight or we are going to obliterate your power plants Iran: fuck you 2 days pass Trump: you have 5 more days It’s all bullshit
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Huda Ammori
Huda Ammori@HudaAmmori·
BREAKING: Met police say they will recommence arresting supporters of Palestine Action. They say they must "enforce the law as it is as the time", but the law was ruled UNLAWFUL. The desperation by the state to arrest people holding placards is baffling.
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99% Johnny Graz
99% Johnny Graz@jvgraz·
Dr Aladwan is not exaggerating here. A physician out of Poole, England, Dr. Eastland Stavely, did say exactly this in social media posts and he hasn't been stricken from the medical registry. That's apparently reserved for physicians who object to the practice.
Dr Rahmeh Aladwan@doctor_rahmeh

@SteveSammut2 A jewish doctor can say he didn't snipe enough babies but if a non-jewish doctor opposes the sniping of babies, they can't work in the NHS.

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