Patrick Bury

This thread seems to have resonated with a few people. If you're interested I wrote this book about our platoon's experiences in Sangin... amazon.co.uk/Callsign-Hades… @simonschusterUK

@AndyAitcheson The best war film ever made, no less

Terrible film. Assault on the Japanese bunkers set piece: exceptional.

This would be a new low of incoherence

@LordRickettsP Tweeterence

This is the first major US war conducted not by position papers and long policy sessions in the NSC but by a rolling news conference and angry late-night social media posts.

👀 this is what we were looking out for 👇🏽. And remember it appears more of those drones are getting through too

This currently has the escalatory dynamics of a train wreck folks 👇🏽

Gen. PETRAEUS: The future of warfare—not yet seen in the Gulf—is Ukraine producing 7 million drones per year. Last year they made 3.5 million, enabling 9–10 thousand drones per day. These are still remotely piloted. But autonomous systems are coming, and that means drone swarms. They're already being introduced at mission end. Defending against swarms is really hard—you'll need high-powered microwaves or similar. We're not where we should be, despite what we should have learned from Ukraine for a very long time. They're making software changes every week or two, hardware changes every 2–3 weeks.

@nicky_j1989 @FootyAccums Interesting, but VAR is not KMI bud

@PatrickBury @FootyAccums

The Premier League's Key Match Incidents (KMI) Panel has voted that Brighton should have been awarded a penalty against Arsenal, in their 1-0 defeat. Michael Salisbury was on VAR for this game. In December, the KMI Panel voted that Everton should have been awarded a penalty for William Saliba's challenge on Thierno Barry, as Everton also lost 1-0. Michael Salisbury was on VAR for this fixture, too. (BBC Sport)

The premier league should follow suit with Chelsea 👇🏽 bbc.co.uk/sport/football…

@BBCSport No, they should have paid Abrahamovic instead 😂

Was Chelsea's Premier League punishment too lenient? 🤔 bbc.in/4rxtBAz

@EC_AVFC or Club together with some other affected clubs and bring the PL to court for breach of contract

That Chelsea fine desperately needs to be the moment in which Aston Villa, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, Everton and any other club with an ounce of ambition just say fuck your rules and do whatever they like. #AVFC

@obaone @chunksafc1886 @FootyAccums No, and not every controversial incident ends up as a KMI error: the panel applies a pretty high threshold, based on both the laws and how the PL expects games to be refereed. It is an imperfect system tbh

@PatrickBury @chunksafc1886 @FootyAccums So all the seasons match goes to KMI?

@TheArsenalDan @FootyAccums I’m using KMI data, and adjusting it as new decisions come out ?

@PatrickBury @FootyAccums "none have gone against them" - Bollocks. Here's three: 1. Clear pen on Havertz against Everton, 2. Clear handball pen by Aina against Forest 3. Clear pen against Newcastle after a blatant foul by Pope on Gyokeres. Stop with the pathetic agendas.

@chunksafc1886 @FootyAccums If it goes to KMi and found in your favour, absolutely

@PatrickBury @FootyAccums So we will get one back for Havertz at the wekend

@elpeck3211 @DoseDirty @FootyAccums The KMI reports don’t track points won or lost, they track incorrect decisions. In 24/25 Arsenal had 3 errors in their favour and none against out of 18 total league VAR errors

@DoseDirty @PatrickBury @FootyAccums Bunch of dickheads these people are. KMI found in the 24/25 season, Arsenal dropped 6-10 points due to incorrect decisions. They just love moving the goalposts when it's Arsenal. Rent free in everyone's head 😂😂🤦🏼‍♂️

@RyanCummin35993 @pmuir @LfcShaunjudge For example other fans would cite Havertz last weekend, or Muani disallowed goal. Neither made KMI report...

@pmuir @PatrickBury @LfcShaunjudge Can you explain why the referees and var refused to award Arsenal 4 clear penalties in the Premier league this season? At Newcastle, Fulham, Nottingham Forest and at home against Everton last weekend?

They have committed the offences for a penalty... It's just PGMOL giving them a helping hand...

@RyanCummin35993 @pmuir @LfcShaunjudge You can look at the KMI reports for the season - I’ve been tracking the outcomes and keeping a running total. Not every controversial incident ends up as a KMI error: the panel applies a pretty high threshold, based on both the laws and how the PL expects games to be refereed.

@Goljay_s @FootyAccums yeah and that updated stat puts them in the top 1% now

@PatrickBury @FootyAccums Top actually. And that 0 red,0 pen stat is mental for a team that holds and shoves so much.

so thats a +3 KMI/VAR decision swing (~2–5%) at present Using Fisher’s method to combine all these tail probabilities gives chance of roughly ~1 in 5,000–50,000 team-seasons. Caveat: these events aren’t fully independent (style/defending affects several), so the true odds are likely less extreme - 1 in 5,000 say - but it’s still a very unusual season profile so far

Looking at the numbers behind Arsenal’s season this new KMI Panel ruling adds another interesting datapoint. • 0 red cards & 0 penalties conceded ~30 games in (~0.2–1% outcome) • ~7.6 fouls per yellow card (~97th percentile in the league) • Very favourable FA Cup path (~0.2% draw difficulty) Now add this: The Premier League’s Key Match Incident panel says three VAR penalties have been wrongly missed against Arsenal this season, and none have gone against them. None of these signals prove anything on their own. But taken together they create a genuinely unusual statistical season profile.

@Brad__AFC @FootyAccums Defintely explains some , esp lack of op touches in box.

@PatrickBury @FootyAccums Great discipline from Arsenal

@clark99 @FootyAccums lag time isnt there?

@PatrickBury @FootyAccums They missed havert foul at the weekend the handball at Bournemouth no?