Dan O'Brien

Usually it’s the economics of programmes for government I watch most closely. Now it is national security - Europe is no longer at peace. Hoping that big changes will be committed to. Ireland is almost unique in that it has abundant resources. No excuses for further neglect.

And change in the main forecast since December is marginal re the unemployment rate. The severe scenario points to a tick up to 6.8%.

New scenarios from the @ecb. The worst one assumes oil rises to $145 (right now = $109) and gas doubles again (having already doubled since first attacks). Even in this scenario, they don't foresee recession this year or next. Inflation would rise to 4.4% this year and 4.8% in 2027. These look like a very plausible set of numbers. An energy shock is very bad news, but it's not an economic apocalypse for those outside the ME region.

First Irish trade data of the year out this morning. Exports to the US were again relatively depressed in January, in keeping with the pattern since mid-2025 (September excepted). This is curious given new manufacturing capacity for weight loss drugs.

In this article I breakdown some of the things I’ve learned gaming out war scenarios between the US and Iran over the past 15 years. One thing I did not game out though was a highly unpredictable and erratic US President. It increases the likelihood of escalation and will make it harder to end a war that is harming everyone’s interests at this point. open.substack.com/pub/zeteo/p/i-…

Timely data out this morning from @EU_Eurostat, as a potential energy crisis looms. Almost half of EU electricity came from renewables last year (controversially, nuclear is not classified as renewable). Noteworthy that wind's share declined compared to 2024, while solar's rose - with year-on-year growth of 24%. Solar is increasingly looking to be the energy source of the future. FWIW, as a techno-optimist, I've always believed that technological advances would eventually solve the emissions problem, and lead to abundant cheap energy to boot. If small modular (nuclear) reactors live up to potential, the Strait of Hormuz could be a forgotten backwater in a decade's time.

Trade committee approves Turnberry deal with US dlvr.it/TRZgJg

The history of government supports for industry is extremely complicated. There have been successes and many failures globally. Interesting new thinking from the @WorldBankGroup. CC @Paschald

can't see a parallel with other issues. UK unilaterally adopting the CET has no downside for the EU and would send a signal that even an economy the size of the UK must in the end submit to the EU. FWIW, the submission aspect makes its politically very difficult for the UK. Impossible I'd say as an outsider, but you are infintitely better positioned to judge the politics of it.

@danobrien20 @stellacreasy The same has applied to other elements turned down because not felt to send the right signal, and if the UK asks for a Customs Union then the EU would inevitably raise asks in return, with business mobility right at the top of the list

Debate now properly up and running in the Labour Party about UK-EU relations. Three perhaps four schools of thought. @MayorofLondon suggests the next election manifesto should explicit seek to rejoin. theguardian.com/politics/2026/…

@DavidHenigUK @stellacreasy Benefit and zero cost to the EU to have UK adopt the common external tariff. eg Turkey.

@stellacreasy I'm unsure if Customs Union is a real Labour school of thought or just an easy soundbite, I'm also unsure it is actually achievable without a people element. ft.com/content/349f75…

Unfortunately threatening escalation after you have already killed Iran’s leadership and made it clear that you want regime change is unlikely to persuade Iran to back off. They believe they have less to lose than their adversaries and they are right

Today we imposed anti-dumping duties on phosphorous acid imports from China.   This product is used across sectors like water treatment, agriculture and construction.   Our investigation found imports were sold at unfairly low prices. policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/commissio…

Many good points in this piece, but because statecraft is not a bread and butter issue, it primarily requires top-down leadership from politicians. Bottom up national debates just won't happen, for two reasons. First, only a small minority of voters is exercised by foreign policy/security/defence, as the recent poll charted shows. Second, among those shaping opinion at 'elite' level, there is also limited interest in Irish foreign policy/security/defence, and among those who do have an interest, what might be called a 'Chomskyian' worldview is quite prevalent. Conclusion: only when government puts concrete policies on the table will debate follow. That requires political leadership, and in particular the articulation of why decisions need to be made in the national interest. From the Mercosur fiasco to the state's continued defencelessness, it is not obvious that political leadership of the kind required for these times currently exists. irishtimes.com/opinion/2026/0…

Trump didn't know the identity of the Irish president, and probably didn't know that one even existed, it is reported here as 'misgendering'.

A journalist duly, and dutifully, asks Trump about the Irish president's views. He seems to have referred to CC as 'he'. Probably not aware Ireland has a separate, ceremonial head of state. Anyway, another huge annual sigh of relief now that it has ended without a bust up.

I think people don’t really appreciate what a massive undertaking securing air supremacy over Iran really is. Iran is 2.7 times the size of Ukraine, 3 times the size of France, 4 times the size of Iraq, and they’ve been preparing for this fight for a half century.

The on-going energy shock is nothing like 2021-23. Also, the inflationary pressures that were factors then - excessive US stimulus, demand surge from ending lockdowns, Covid supply-side problems - are not factors now. Oil would have to go to $200 and gas to €100+ (and stay there) to push inflation into mid single digits. Both are, of course, possible if Hormuz stays closed.

Second that. A true scholar - curious, questioning and never one to buy into the faddish theories that have blighted academia in recent times. My review of her brilliant book rethinking the 1960s. m.independent.ie/opinion/think-…