🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦

2.2K posts

🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦

🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦

@PatrickKrizan

Economist/Strategist - specialized in monetary policy and Capital markets. Works @Allianz. Views are my own. Retweets are not an endorsement!

Vienna Katılım Ocak 2015
901 Takip Edilen2.4K Takipçiler
🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦
Recent #bond sell-off wasn't only about repricing of expected rates, it was also especially at the long end a repricing of risk (term premium). One forgotten driver of the term premium is the #duration reflux from run-off central bank #QE holdings. since 2022 the #ECB has lifted the 10y term premium by 80bps, the Fed by 35bps. Current #FED purchases are limited to Bills and di not extract duration, the run-off effects persist. For more: lnkd.in/dQKQd2-w
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🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦
10y #US #Treasuries and German #Bund have converged since 2025 by 90bps, the spread between both trades at 140bps only. I expect a reversal when US rate expectations and term premium reprice. There is a 70bps difference explained by neutral rates difference alone. More in our latest report:
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🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦
The 10y #transatlantic spread narrowed 90bps since 2025. This narrowing was first due to term premia shock and later mostly a function of converging rate expectations (#Fed with easing bias, #ECB hawkish hold). Are we entering a new regime were #US and #Eurozone yields trade closer-for-longer? We expect a mid-term rewidening as rate expectations and term premia reprice. For more read our latest report: lnkd.in/dQKQd2-w
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Isabella M Weber
Isabella M Weber@IsabellaMWeber·
The lesson of the previous energy crisis: Price interventions have to stop ripple effects before they start. This is about buying time for emergency adjustments. European democracies cannot afford another round of falling real wages and war profiteering. Yours truly @WSJ
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Isabella M Weber
Isabella M Weber@IsabellaMWeber·
G7 strategic reserve release won’t be enough this time. An internationally coordinated price cap is necessary. The cap on Russian oil prices shows it can be done. This has to be complemented with energy saving programs. The world can’t afford a rerun of 2022 on steroids.
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Petar Momchev
Petar Momchev@momchev12·
We are all rates vol traders
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🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦
@ojblanchard1 Convenience yield composed of liquidity AND safety premium seems to be an unknown concept to many. German and eurobond convenience yield are not in conpetition as their composition varies
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Olivier Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard@ojblanchard1·
size, depth, and liquidity of market. Being able to buy and sell large amounts without having the price move against you. (why do you think investors like Treasuries so much? It is not because of love of the US. It is because it is big, deep, and liquid)
Christian Lessmann@econ_lessmann

@ojblanchard1 @VsneTwit Please help me: if there is no risk sharing, why should interest rates be more attractive as with national borrowing?

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🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦
Europe has the space to increase #Eurobonds issuance. Global safe assets trade at lower yields due to #convenience yield - a safety and #liquidity premium. But safety and liquidity point in opposite directions: convenience yield dilemma. More debt issuance increases liquidity but decreases safety. There is an optimal spot where max level of issuance meets min level of safety. #US has gone over that point, as have #UK and #Japan - but #Germany and #Eurozone still have a buffer. Eurobonds have a distorted convenience yield, heavily penalized by low liquidity. So, while the US #Treasury has overstretched its liquidity premium, Europe is playing it too safe in terms of Eurobond issuance. lnkd.in/gNR3nTZF
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🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦
@ErikFossing You are right it is not. Convenience yield of Bunds and Eurobonds are complementary, no subsitution. Meanwhile, Euro safe assets have a window of opportinity as US has exhausted their safety premium.
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🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦
#Eurobonds have been a hot topic in the public debate recently. We have looked into it and clearly see a window of opportunity for more joint issuances. #UST have exhausted their convenience yield while convenience yield of Eurobonds and German #Bunds co-exist as complements, not competitors.
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#JGB and Japanese banks are crucial to understand global liquidity and volatility. Japanese banks are major suppliers of #USD through #FX swap market. If constrained in absorption capacity due to increased JGB issuance, this results in export of #volatility to global markets. See the synchrony of negative #JPY ASW and spikes in #VIX! Are we overdue for an #equity volatility shock or is volatility just transferred to other markets (commodities)? lnkd.in/df2e9H8n
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🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦
@HannoLustig It's a catchy story, but instead as framing it as one against the other shouldn't we see it as great convergence achievement of the EU? Italy received EUR 120bn more than France in NGEU funds, quick back of the envelope => 50bps of IT-FR spread tightening comes from there.
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Hanno Lustig
Hanno Lustig@HannoLustig·
How do you say Schadenfreude in Italian? 🥲"🇮🇹 has shown investors what happens when political stability, fiscal credibility and industrial strengths are aligned". .."In a world dominated by volatility, 🇮🇹 is a harbour not just for investors" (maybe a little poetic license as well). ft.com/content/1a1f06…
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Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger@heimbergecon·
The Council opened an Excessive Deficit Procedure against 🇦🇹 in early July. The 10-year bond yield is today lower and significantly lower than when the new federal government came into office in March. Spreads have not increased. Some claimed EDP would raise financing costs.
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Andreas Steno Larsen
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno·
Remember the “outrage” over no one wanting to buy USTs around Liberation Day? Well, 30-year Treasury yields are actually down a bit since Trump took office — even as they’ve trended higher in Japan, Germany, and the UK. Never count out the Treasury market
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🏳️‍🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦 retweetledi
JustDario
JustDario@DarioCpx·
Reverse repos at the FED keeps rising into the Q3-end snapshot, now at ~56.22bn$ Keep an eye on the standing repo facility today, on the 30th June banks needed to borrow ~11bn$ from the FED. If they borrow more today it will be a sign of worsening liquidity in the system.
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JustDario@DarioCpx

Reverse repo at the FED jumped to 48bn$ on Friday, banks window dressing into quarter end in all its beauty here. Starting from Wednesday this amount will be drained all the way to zero in Q4 and we will likely see Liquidity borrowed via FED repo to start heading higher

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