Patrick Ruffini

Coming November 4: The paperback edition of Party of the People, with a new epilogue on the 2024 election.

Republicans get *tons* of stuff wrong. Tons. But they tend to govern better because they get the basics right. Most smart policy people are Democrats, but because Democrats get so many fundamental aspects of governance wrong, they're fighting a wicked uphill battle.

How did Republicans overperform in VA-HD-98 tonight? While the Early Vote only shifted about 0.4 points R from the 2025 HoD election, the election day vote was about 5.9 points more R. The mail vote was actually about 4.9 points more D, but... 1/2

Why do people pretend there’s any meaningful difference between the two dots on the left?

Extremely cringe normie libs in Illinois last night

Guys, I think we might need a better way to differentiate AIPAC from AI PACs

@LizMair @PuckNews @EchelonInsights Your point is correct but the totals here are wrong

This is from @PuckNews and @EchelonInsights latest poll, and it’s not a great stat for the anti-Israel crowd. (FWIW, I actually don’t think that the US should pursue military action just to protect Israel; but I also think our interests frequently align).

Today, Rs outran Trump by ~10% in the VA HD98 special - an anomalous result when the average special sees Dems outrun Kamala by ~12%. This result aligns with early data for VA’s April 21 redistricting referendum, which shows MUCH higher turnout in GOP areas than Dem ones atm.

Mamdani without the charm

If I had to put a guess I'd say the DEM gerrymander wins by 4-8% right now and there's about a 15-20% chance the amendment fails. But w/o polling this guess has a low confidence interval. @StateNavigate is about halfway to our $ goal for a poll: statenavigate.org/polling-fund/

A lot of the anti-DEM gerrymander folks keep saying that the proposed VA congressional map would be the most extreme gerrymander in the country. So let's put that to the test using actual political science. The efficiency gap was the standard developed by political scientists during Rucho v. Common Cause (2019). It's not an entirely perfect measurement, as noted in Keena et al., "Gerrymandering the States," because it would technically rate the 2010s Maryland gerrymander as a fair map, for example (though it does show the 2010s Wisconsin gerrymander as an egregious gerrymander!). Keena et al. argue that the mean/median difference is sometimes a better practice; however, for example, it shows the VA gerrymander as a fair map. My standard for measuring how extreme a gerrymander is, or whether a map is gerrymandered at all, is pretty much one standard or the other, depending on which makes sense. In this case, the efficiency gap is the best standard. Using the 2024 presidential results, we can see in DRA 2020 what the efficiency gap is in the enacted/proposed congressional gerrymanders across the country. The closer to 0, the fairer the map using efficiency gaps. Negative favors DEMs, positive favors GOP. Let's take a look. VA: -24.02% NC: 22.55% MO: 17.65% OH: 15.34% CA: -14.92% IL: -14.60% TX: 14.05% NM: -13.98% FL: 11.79% So yes, the proposed VA DEM gerrymander would be the most extreme gerrymander in the country. In fact, it would be more extreme than the 2010s WI Gerrymander that Rucho was all about, which has a 19-point efficiency gap. Only North Carolina comes close to being an egregious gerrymander.

Before there was Heather Cox Richardson, there was Paul Ehrlich

“Premature,” lol. The abject refusal to just admit this guy was completely wrong is one of the funnier Boomer-coded traits.

Only tax billionaires. Jk don’t tax them either.

…. “ChatGPT, build a Premier League title race model for me based on strength of schedule remaining.”

Utterly hilarious that “actually, let’s tax poor people” is what gets libs to come out and say she’s terrible

The tax that Katie Porter has paid for that horrendous interview is that she now has to raid @SteveHiltonx’s policy ideas.

We've launched a new @ManhattanInst / @realDailyWire partnership. To kick it off, @reihan makes the case that the @GOP would be wise to replicate President Trump’s successful 2024 political playbook—ignoring the advice of blowhards on the hyper-online right and radical activist left, who increasingly sound an awful lot alike. dailywire.com/news/how-not-t…

Should also include Warner and Kaine's opposition to a 10-1 map!

@bdomenech Fairfax County Parkway cuts through 4 maybe 5

@PatrickRuffini What's the smallest circle you can draw on a map to include all 5 districts?

The gerrymander would make Northern Virginia the main power base in 5 seats vs. 3.5 today. Taking seats from the working class Shenandoah & Tidewater and giving them to the *richest region in the country.* It's Robin Hood in reverse.