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Coming November 4: The paperback edition of Party of the People, with a new epilogue on the 2024 election.
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Patrick Ruffini
95K posts
Patrick Ruffini
@PatrickRuffini
Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”
Virginia Katılım Mart 2007
2.8K Takip Edilen65.8K Takipçiler
Oof that Newsom slide. Can't sustain interest for as long as Meatball Ron was able to.
Kamala 2028 (for now) looking like Trump 2024 was for the GOP.
Echelon Insights@EchelonInsights
DEM PRIMARY UPDATE: The field remains divided with Harris leading and Newsom sliding down since November. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg maintain steady shares hovering around 10% each.
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Patrick Ruffini retweetledi
These are the poll numbers for the California race for governor . As you can see Hilton is significantly ahead of Bianco in every single poll.
Becerra and Steyer are also polling ahead of Bianco
Hilton and Becerra are polling very close to each other.
At this point not voting for Hilton risks having two Democrats on the ticket .. two very bad ones .
It would be another destructive decade for California .. as you know if they get in they’ll easily be there two terms like Newsom .
Anyone that wants to turn California around needs to get behind Hilton
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Patrick Ruffini retweetledi
Spencer Pratt's LA mayoral campaign is one of the clearest examples of where politics is heading. He's running his campaign like a content creator, not a politician.
Music videos dissing his opponents. Memes. Community-generated content that he just reposts. He hasn't even needed to produce most of the ads himself because his supporters are doing it for him.
This is the same playbook that's worked for Trump, for Mamdani in New York City. A background in television or social media or just understanding how the internet works gives you an enormous advantage over career politicians still running traditional campaigns. It's not just about the content you produce. It's about creating the kind of cultural engagement that makes other people want to produce content for you.
Whether Pratt wins or not, this model is going to become the norm. The traditional campaign ad is dying. The candidates who figure that out first are the ones who will have the edge.
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Full interactive scatterplot of how GOP candidate coalitions in Georgia compare with one another across races.
The extreme anti-correlation between Jones and Raff/Carr suggests to me that Jackson is very much in this. claude.ai/public/artifac…
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Just as an aside, there's no more perfect name for a reporter covering elections than Elex.
jay plemons@jayplemons
Elex Michaelson: You promised to end street homelessness 100% by 2026. It’s only down 17.6%. How are you this off? Karen Bass: I didn’t realize it would be so hard. But if you re-elect me, I’ll definitely get it right this time.
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Another data point along with CA turnout that the blue wave is canceled on the west coast thanks to abysmal Democratic governance of these states
Jaron Zhou@ZhouJaron
For some reason Republican turnout in Oregon appears to be super strong Not sure why this is the case, the Republican primaries are more competitive but still seems disproportionate compared to the rest of the country.
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And yet they can't convert this into a W in head-to-head contests that they treated as a D vs. R proxy war!
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV
Two-party turnout in Georgia’s 2026 gubernatorial primary, mapped by county, with 2024 presidential results shown on the right. Democrats dominated the Black Belt and Metro Atlanta alike, with Black enthusiasm through the roof post-VRA. 🔵 53.6% | 🔴 46.4% Statewide
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Patrick Ruffini retweetledi
Since Georgia Democrats have told me that Sarah Warren is basically a Republican or whatever, her 1 pt win in Clayton County represents a 70.2 pt swing rightward from its Harris +69.2 margin in 2024.
Douglasville, GA 🇺🇸 English
They put this on the ballot lmfao
VoteHub@VoteHub
Oregon Measure 120 – Increase Gas Tax, Payroll Tax, and Vehicle Registration Fees – CALLED: NO 🔴 No – 464,259 (82.3%)✅️ 🟢 Yes – 99,699 (17.7%)
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I'll soften this given Jones's margin - earlier in the evening the margin was within 2 - but Jackson's money and coalition give him advantages.
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As I said on the DDHQ-livecast tonight, I do think Jackson is heavily favored in a runoff. He's the more Kemp/Metro Atlanta coded candidate and Raffensberger/Carr are moderate conservatives.
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@VictorishB123 Trump's grip on the GOP softening has been just around the corner for 10 years now.
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@PatrickRuffini Also, those lame ducks who got primaried out and any that might lose in November are going to give Trump hell for the time they are still in office. Ones primaried out for a much longer period of time than those who lose the General.
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The effort to Wisconsin-ify the Georgia Supreme Court failed, and failed spectacularly.
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I don't understand why people are dumb about the fact that you can have low approvals and still be able to rule your own party with an iron fist, especially with the polarization that exists today.
This is basic math.
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Spencer Pratt has 57% name ID nationally and 65% with Republicans.
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@dpillie Should be a chill pre-Europe friendly and hopefully a chance for the substitutes to shine on all sides
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@PatrickRuffini I don’t as kind of hoping for Crystal Palace to face the dilemma of playing to spoil your chance of winning the title or rolling over and collecting the £10 million, then I found out it was just a bad rumor.
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To Arsenal winning the league and Thomas Massie going down.
Always shilling for foreign interests in every way possible.
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Patrick Ruffini retweetledi
Shoutout to Tucker Carlson who is 0 for 5 in candidate endorsements!
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When I saw Gallrein winning Fox News viewers and 65+, I knew it was over
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Say it again: Isolationism as a vital force on the right is massively overrated
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