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A thread of sports analytics papers and projects I’ve worked on over the years 🧵
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Steven Patton
6.6K posts
Steven Patton
@PattonAnalytics
NFL Analytics & Graphics | Host of Purrfect Takes | Data Scientist @StatRankings
Charlotte, NC Katılım Ocak 2022
450 Takip Edilen8.5K Takipçiler
Caleb Williams stans won’t like this
GIF
Max Toscano@maxtoscano1
You’ll get plenty of Loveland in time but some other charting observations -Luther Burden is everything we thought in his sophomore year. -Cole Kmet laps any TE from this past FA cycle -Caleb is their biggest limitation by far rn -Odunze is very good but needs a settled role
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@obipanthers Tyler Should as well. There’s definitely an alternate timeline where all three are on IR by week 10
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Injured Reserve putting up Primetime numbers on these two
John Butler@Saintjohnbutler
Your best cornerback can't guard them both.
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Firing your GM because the players he drafted are bad and then hiring one of the guys who was also doing that👌🧠
VikingzFanPage@vikingzfanpage
#Vikings assistant GM Ryan Grigson has “the respect of people within the building” and could be in play for Minnesota’s GM opening, @AlbertBreer mentioned via @SInow. “It would be interesting to watch, but Ryan Grigson is another interesting name.”
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@ckparrot @Phinhead83 I’ve already made it clear Ioane is the better player.
Also switching sides isn’t as simple as you’re making it out to be.
And I’m not alone on this as there are plenty of analysts who are more respected than me that agree with this sentiment based on the QTs and replies.
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The you should stick to your guns and say you think they should have taken Ioane because he’s just a better player rather than trying to bolster the case based on Proctor taking the path anyone with two brain cells to rub together could’ve predicted as a possibility while Jackson is still healthy and still here. There’s no need to go to such lengths. You think Ioane is better. That’s ok.
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@Phinhead83 @ckparrot Albert was already in his 30s and played his final season Tunsil’s rookie year.
Ioane has a higher probability of becoming an elite LG than Proctor does of becoming an elite RT. I’d rather take the better player at a position of need than force a square peg in a round hole.
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Easier to replace guards than tackles. It's like saying Miami should've passed on Tunsil until Albert retired. Don't bank on the future to replace, especially when there's many holes to fill. Finding a long term RT is more important than finding a long term LG/RG. They feel they have that now and is likely why they said he will still get tackle reps.
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@Phinhead83 @ckparrot OL is a weak link system.
Simultaneously solidifying the left side and the interior of the OL with Ioane/Brewer/Savaiinaea while waiting to find Austin Jackson’s replacement next year would’ve been more prudent imo, but we’ll see
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@PattonAnalytics @ckparrot They should've just put him at RG this year, but Miami also said he will still be getting tackle reps this year too. It can be and has been done.
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@ckparrot Tunsil kicked from guard to tackle on the same side and was a better prospect coming out of college.
Asking Proctor to do that while flipping sides is a big ask.
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@PattonAnalytics The difference is after this season they get to move Proctor to RT and that wouldn't be the case with Ioane. The immediate play at LG is a lot like when the Dolphins immediately played Laremy Tunsil at LG because they still had Branden Albert at LT and Ja'Wuan James at RT.
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Capital going into the draft has a pretty notable impact on draft grades but not as much as I would have guessed by eyeballing it
René Bugner@RNBWCV
🚨 2026 NFL Draft Team Grades In my annual draft grades round-up, I have compiled 24 different evaluations and calculated the GPA for all 32 teams. I sorted the evaluations by GPA as well. From left (soft) to right (hard graders). Thanks to all who give out grades every year! 🔥
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@ToddFuhrman @NextGenStats This was last year for reference.
Their prospect grades/scores go back to 2014. It could likely be pieced together, I just haven’t dug into it yet.
Steven Patton@PattonAnalytics
Production versus traits
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@PattonAnalytics @NextGenStats do we have historical rankings on how teams have drafted 1-3-5 years after the players have had a chance to play in the league? Attributing draft grades based on player consensus always feels like a bit of a fool's errand 24 hours after the event is done
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For reference, pick 50 is worth 1018 points according to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger trade value chart
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It would be interesting to see a pick-adjusted version of this score
Propagandist of the Greatest Instrument Alive@AccordionProp
@PattonAnalytics @NextGenStats Ah I was wondering about it but average score of first 7 is going to bias this towards people who had a lot of front-end draft picks this year. You'd really want to see like pick-adjusted metric on determining if it was a 'good' draft.
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@my_cow @NextGenStats NGS' athletic score is not the same as RAS
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@PattonAnalytics @NextGenStats I don’t understand Baltimores placement. A lot of the players drafted have a high RAS score.
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@zelinske_jim @NextGenStats They are right behind the Saints in the bottom right quadrant
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@PattonAnalytics @NextGenStats Is Green Bay not on there because the Packers only had six picks?
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@andrewadesilva @NextGenStats NGS’ production score is derived from position specific models trained on college performance data.
For positions like OL they likely rely on derived performance metrics (pressure rates allowed, blocking efficiency, snap volume, etc). nfl.com/news/next-gen-…
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@PattonAnalytics @NextGenStats how is production determined for positions like the OL?
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