peace

The Doomer is Mid-Curve some snippets + full link for anyone who enjoys reading open.substack.com/pub/apewoodx/p…

@SHL0MS I just saw it here for the first time, and it feels like 100m+ already. will never unsee

@viperr @Cloudflare Umbra also raised close to $100M last few hours if there's a pro rata launch and you see it's 10x oversubscribed you are incentivized to put in 10x the USDC of what you want in order to get allocation

So $launchcoin just increased the token supply by 33%, from 1m -> 1.33m tokens. Yes, every holder just got diluted and on paper thats bad. But zoom out, here's why I'm still bullish on @believeapp 👇 Let's first look at the team incentive. Before, they had none. The team didn't own any of their own supply. Of every crypto project you know that has been successful, there has always been basic alignment. The team now own 25% of the supply, locked for 1 year, vested over 3 more. This means: - No instant unlocks - No mercenary dumping - 4 years of skin in the game Don't get me wrong, this isn't perfect. The bad: - Every holders slice just got 33% smaller without being consulted before. Should there have been a DAO vote? Possibly... - Trust from community in team got worse. This is the second rebrand of the token. Whats stopping them from doing the same again? - Execution risk. It's now more pivotal than ever, to deliver. The clock is on. After the two week migration period, everything rests on the followup announcements - Unlock/dilution FUD. Holders have already reacted to news quite badly (30% down). Whilst I think the worse is behind us, it could go down a little more as more people see it and react Ok, now the good! - The team is now finally aligned with the holders! They only win if value accrues to the token - The lockup has just started yesterday AND the product has already found PMF. This is quite a big one. So many projects launch their token with their v1 product release meaning by the time they find PMF, investors/insiders have already dumped. - There is $40m in cash reserves, with over half suspected to go into buybacks. Let me repeat that. Around $20m is going to be market buying a token sitting at 170m MC. Thats over 10% of the supply at current prices. - Finally the team can get back to the product and start shipping faster. The tech debt has been cleared, and now real execution can happen This isn't a "token project" anymore. Its a real company with serious capital, and a 4 year roadmap that aligns with holders. This has been dilution with a purpose. To further prove my point, I did some back of the napkin maths for a bearish, moderate and bullish case. The TLDR: 1. Even in the worst case scenario, you have a nearly x3 in token price from current prices ($0.20) 2. The moderate scenario implies a x10 multiple of $60m revenue (very achievable since they have already made $40m in less than 6/7 months) to have $0.60 per token 3. The bullish scenario implies a x15 multiple of $100m revenue (again this isn't crazy. Its a x2.5 increase in revenue and many crypto companies have a FDV of x20-x50, not x15). Token price here is $1.50 Conclusion People often hear "dilution" and immediately think "value destruction", but every startup raise will always dilute early holders. Nobody complains when the project then x10's. You can own 1% of a 100m project, or 0.75% of a 1b project. Which would you prefer? So yeah, your slice got smaller, but the pie just got bigger. The oven just got upgraded and the head chef @pasternak and his team just signed a 4 year lock-in 🥧

I think it’s valid to criticize new entrants to the launchpad space, which is growing more crowded by the week. But one criticism you can’t make towards @peacefuldecay and the team @heavendex is that they are purely flash or philosophy with no substance to back it up. Two major launchpads on the market today have built their own AMM, custom fit for their products: 1) Pump 2) Heaven The rest are wrappers. I don’t believe launchpads are solved at all. Not when the current market is 200k people playing Fortnite scalping games. If there is meaningful growth left in this space it will come from new games, created with new technology at the base level, not a flashier UI (agreed with the original post there). Nobody knows yet what the best version of ICM looks like, but very few teams even have the tools to find out. Heaven is one of them.