@mtndrew @cyberdyneHL yea the above is the most likely way i end up totally wrong and ill def admit its possible tbf
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Jon Charbonneau 🇺🇸
11.5K posts
Jon Charbonneau 🇺🇸
@jon_charb
Co-Founder & General Partner @dba_xyz
Katılım Ocak 2022
483 Takip Edilen27.5K Takipçiler
yeah, i knew that's what you meant
my thesis in a nutshell is:
- BTC does not have a monopoly on being a digital SoV asset
- ETH has enough SoV properties to qualify
- The things ETH does better than BTC will eventually amplify its SoV-ness more than the things BTC does better will amplify its SoV-ness
i guess i'm a cultist, even though it really doesn't feel that way to me. i'm a nimble, independent investor with no "brand" loyalties.
but i can respect that many people can't buy into this thesis. it's something that really only time can prove. it may not be the most likely outcome, but i think it's much greater probability than most people give it credit for.
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@mtndrew @cyberdyneHL also noting using irrationally loosely
being specific its "rational" to buy ETH for any reason if you think price will go up, even if the reason seems unsustainable to me
just imo ETH is $300bn rn bc of a cult following, not bc itll capture sufficient value, so it likely fades
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@jon_charb @cyberdyneHL fair enough
i think i see something in it that you don't, but your answer is sound
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@mtndrew @cyberdyneHL it would depend entirely on the circumstances and fundamentals
if theyve changed, sure
but price alone is insufficient
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And there's absolutely no expiration date on this claim in your mind?
For argument's sake, let's say the ETH FDV : HYPE FDV ratio is the same in 3 years as it is right now - you wouldn't begin to question that maybe ETH investors weren't irrational?
And no, in this hypothetical scenario, Hyperliquid has not failed or lost substantial market share or anything like that.
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@no__________end eth is mostly a superset of hype bc eth wants to do ~everything
in practice hype is better for most financial use cases
eth better for those requiring maximal incremental neutrality & resilience, even at the cost of most other dimensions, which i suspect has low market value
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@jon_charb Where do you see Ethereum and Hyperliquid intersecting / non-intersecting in utility and market?
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@mtndrew @cyberdyneHL ETH is worth more due to irrational market participants
i think its on a slow path to ~0, but i have very low confidence in the timing & trajectory bc its fundamentally irrationally driven, so im not going to long or short it
i can underwrite HYPE on predictable fundamentals
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I don't like XRP, but if it's going to outperform my other investments then I would prefer to hold XRP. "Do you want to make money or do you want to be right?"
If you really think ETH's valuation is irrational then you shouldn't be anchoring HYPE's valuation to it. I'm a HYPE bull, but it's no different than the poor schmucks who baghold their shitcoins because they think it has to be worth more than XRP, ADA, etc.
If you don't care about how ETH performs, then it's odd that you're always comparing your other investments to it. If you do care how ETH performs, then you have to think about how it can be worth so much more than HYPE despite no revenue and if/when that will change.
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@mtndrew @cyberdyneHL i own HYPE, not a prediction market on whether HYPE will actually flip ETH and take the #2 spot in X years
HYPE price is the only invalidation i care about
idc if people continue to irrationally hold ETH at a high value anymore than they do for XRP
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@cyberdyneHL @jon_charb I'm not saying it won't
But every trade needs a point of invalidation
If it takes 10 years for this prediction to come true then it was basically pointless
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@llamaonthebrink @fiege_max it did multiples and outperformed ETH by a lot same as HYPE is doing now so id say pretty well
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@jon_charb @fiege_max You said that about SOL too
How’d that go for you?
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@sjdedic last i had looked the token just had no rights or value accrual, company controlled the revenue
has this changed
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Collector fundamentals vs $CARDS chart.
Not sure I've ever seen an opportunity in crypto this obvious.
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Jon Charbonneau 🇺🇸 retweetledi
Since 2025, if you bought every token sale on CoinList, Legion, MetaDAO, and BuidlPad, you would be down 46%.
Of the 41 token sales in this period, only 6 are above the initial sale price.
Perhaps most notable is that 4 out of these 6 launches were @MetaDAOProject launches: $OMFG, $AVICI, $UMBRA, $RNGR.
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Government 101:
1) Spend tax dollars creating problems (secretly spread disease via ticks)
2) Sorry, we need more tax dollars to fix the problem (eradicate the ticks)
Jonah Maps@JonahA59
Apparently ticks are not a food chain keystone species, we have successfully eradicated a tick before (the Cattle Fever Tick), in 2023 the USDA started gene-editing ticks for future eradication efforts. The issue is just a slow lifecycle and money. Absolutely worth my taxes.
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@izebel_eth @dyzcrypto theoretical benefit of L2 here is if you max out bridge security, then its lower risk to bridge source chain assets into the L2 vs some other chain
lighter is currently stage 0 with instant msig upgrades
& RWAs can just be natively issued on all chains of consequence (eg usdc)
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@izebel_eth @dyzcrypto wdym exactly by "strong eth composability"?
i thought everyones agreed for a while now that eth L2's having some special composability was a meme, theres nothing there
lighter/hyperliquid/any other chain bridge in assets from ethereum. both are multisig bridges rn.
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its not hyperliquid vs lighter
its hyperliquid and lighter vs the drifts of the world
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Jon Charbonneau 🇺🇸 retweetledi
None of these politicians are actually opposed to gambling
They're opposed to not having a monopoly on gambling
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez@AOC
This is sad. I know as a politician these companies are going to spend a billion dollars against me for saying it but 🤷🏽♀️ Pervasive gambling is not good for society. It turns life into a casino, traps people in addiction & debt, surges domestic violence, and fosters manipulation.
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Impact markets are the correct way for BTC to handle quantum
They'll give you clear prices for all options
What's the price of BTC given
-no fork
-fork burning vulnerable coins
-fork turning vulnerable coins into tail inflation
-etc
Pick the highest price
@lightconexyz
Jon Charbonneau 🇺🇸@jon_charb
prediction: impact markets will play a major role in deciding future contentious Bitcoin core protocol changes (eg around quantum) imagine if you knew exactly what the price of BTC would be with or without a specific change
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why do you say "hard part is GTM to retail, which CT doesn't help with"?
sounds like we agree on first part, but i definitely think having a distributed ownership token is perfect here where they're incentivized to use + market
you'll obviously want to expand beyond crypto-natives too, but:
1) crypto-natives are the ideal starting audience of people who have lots of money and love to gamble
2) they can market beyond CT (tell friends etc), and naturally this expands outward over time
see Hyperliquid/HYPE as comp - started with crypto-natives, having a token coming then launching supercharged growth, and now they're expanding beyond crypto-natives
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@jon_charb @futarddotio 1) megapot is a licensed gaming operator with an in-house compliance officer
2) we had a million dollar prize pool on day 1 with our unique liquidity pool
but the hard part is:
- GTM to retail, which CT doesn't help with
- building trust, often hard anon
- on/offramps
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onchain lottery is clearly a perfect crypto use case
2 reasons they dont exist
1) reg risk
2) marketing (need sufficient pot to start flywheel)
would be an ideal @futarddotio raise:
1) permissionless raise: anons build decentralized protocol
2) token day 1: community marketing
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