Leo Kolivakis

My latest coverage of this week's market action: pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2026/03/stocks…

A Pakistan flagged oil tanker was destroyed by Iranian missiles few hours earlier while crossing strait of Hormuz. Pakistan has earlier betrayed Iran by re-routing Iranian oil to US. This is a reply by Iran to Pakistan

Mind blowing revelation. The Strait of Hormuz isn't just about oil. It controls one third of the world's helium, which is absolutely critical for manufacturing semiconductors and AI chips. Iran literally holds the entire global tech industry by the throat.

12 hours later, and the US 2Y Note Yield is up to 4.00%, now up nearly +60 basis points since the Iran War began, moving in a literal straight-line higher. Inflation expectations have become so bad that the market is trading like an emergency Fed rate hike is imminent. If you haven't read our analysis below, you should do so now. Without intervention, the bond market is nearing a full-blown crisis.

Have you ever seen a chart like this?! The 10yr yield on Japanese government debt is testing a 27 year high. Japan has the highest Debt / GDP ratio in the world of 236%. Buckle up.

BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 is now officially in correction territory, down -10% from its October 2025 high.

BREAKING: Iran destroys another oil tanker that attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without permission.

BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Banks U.S. Banks are currently facing unrealized losses of $306 Billion 🤯👀

BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $99/barrel, now up +18% since Monday's low. The S&P 500 is just 60 points away from entering correction territory.

My latest on why the chair of the pension committee for the association representing retired Nova Scotia government employees is calling for changes to address hardships members are facing as inflation cuts into their buying power: pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2026/03/inflat…

The Bond Market is sending bearish signals. The MOVE Index, aka the $VIX of the Bond Market, plotted against the $SPX 👇

April 6 delay = at least another 11 days of SoH impact = 121MM barrels of further shut-ins, at which point cumulative losses will amount to a whopping ~400MM barrels taking global inventories to multi-year lows.

BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $94/barrel as peace talks with Iran show minimal progress.

The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal response to whatever is coming down the pike.

My latest on why @lacaisse_ is joining @Brookfield to take Boralex private: pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2026/03/la-cai…

‼️Market pressure on Trump to de-escalate the Iran War is at extreme levels: The Trump Pain Point Index, or "TACO Index," just hit ~2 standard deviations above the mean for the first time ever. This index combines inverse S&P 500 returns, 10-year Treasury yields, 30-year mortgage rates, gasoline futures, 1-year CPI swaps, and presidential approval ratings into a single measure of economic and political pain. Every major spike in the index over the last 15 months has been followed by a policy reversal or pause from the White House. The 90-day pause on tariffs came after the April 2025 spike, the government shutdown ended after the September spike, the Greenland threat was dropped after the December spike, and most recently, Trump backed down from threats on Iranian energy infrastructure. The pattern is consistent. When Treasury yields spike too much alongside falling stocks, Trump intervenes.

The market is experiencing historically high intraday volatility: The number of intraday reversals in the S&P 500 over the last 3 months is up to 28, the highest since 2015. This means that in nearly half of all trading sessions over the last 3 months, the market opened either higher or lower than the previous day and erased that opening move. This is also the 2nd-highest reading since the 2008 Financial Crisis, which peaked at 35 such days. Headline-induced volatility is extremely high.

BlackRock's Larry Fink: If Iran remains a threat after the bombing stops, there could be "years of above $100, closer to $150 oil, which has profound implications in the economy" and an outcome of "a probably stark and steep recession." (1/2) bbc.com/news/articles/…

My latest on why @OTPPinfo has acquired four fully leased multifamily properties in Germany as a launching point to its new joint venture with DW Effectum (DWE) Residential: pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2026/03/otpp-s…

My latest on how OMERS Infrastructure appointed Luca Lupo to head up its European operations and @InvestPSP appointed Andrew Alley to head up its Infrastructure group: pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2026/03/omers-…