Perry Bartol

I read an interesting study published by @AEI today debunking the myth of the “hollowed out middle class” that is pushed by Dem, GOP, and LP politicians alike. The truth is this: (Methodology and link to the full study in replies)

Nice of you to say that Andy and to repost it. I think highly of Norseman. He put a lot of effort into this piece, and publishing it was important to him both for his own journey as well as the success of his service-which I subscribe to and wholeheartedly endorse. I want to also congratulate you on your journey, I know your beginnings and the incredible accomplishments at Salomon before striking out on your own. I wish you continued success and happiness. Cheers to you both.

This is an excellent description of the bullish technical sentiment in the markets today. Well worth reading if you have access or even the non paywalled part $SPY 720.76 $QQQ 675.15

The point about the cash is correct but you also have to factor in the debt. The way to do it is to say Enterprise Value is Market Cap plus net debt or minus net cash. In the case of GME that’s $11bn-$9.4+$4.2=$5.8bn. We called that “firm value” or “value of the enterprise”. Also, a highly confident letter isn’t the same as a commitment. I wouldn’t make much from the TD letter, $20bn is a lot for them. Major financing issues here.

The $GME proposed acquisition of $EBAY is even dumber than it sounds, which is why he refused to answer @andrewrsorkin's basic questions this am. To start, the ACTUAL proposal is not GME acquiring EBAY: GME is the seller, not the buyer. Ryan Cohen is asking eBay to acquire GME, fire eBay's CEO, and let Ryan run the business. Onto the dumbness of the proposal details: The idea is 50% cash / 50% stock for roughly $56 billion of consideration to eBay. Pundits note GME's ~$11.1B market cap and ~$9B of existing cash. BUT THAT DOUBLE-COUNTS. Of GME's ~$11.1B market cap, ~$9B IS THE CASH. Or 81% of the market cap. If I have a company worth $110 with $90 of net cash, it's not worth $180: the cash is worth $90, and the company ex-cash is worth $20 = $110. As shown below, if GME pays eBay the ~$9B in existing cash, the remaining market cap (from eBay's perspective) is ~$2.1B. GME shares are worth ~$5/share ex cash. To issue $28 billion of GME shares, it has to issue ~5.6B of new shares to eBay (vs 590B FD GME shares today), giving eBay 90%+ of the post-deal shares (+ $28 billion of cash to eBay owners). To be clear, GME is proposing that eBay acquire GME, with GME owning 10% of the CombinedCo. In 2026, eBay is expected to generate $2.8B of free cash flow vs $500 mm by GameStop (15% of combinedco). eBay revenue is expected to GROW 9% in 2026 while GME's is expected to shrink 1% (and has shrunk >40% in 5 years). So eBay brings 85% of the cash flow and is growing, and gets 90% of a newco that is dragged down by GameStop's declining revenue. To compensate for owning a lower quality CombinedCo, it levers up and pays legacy eBay $62/share in cash. However, that cash is financed by the quality of eBay's business, not GameStop. eBay doesn't need GameStop to recap its existing business - it could do so and continue to own 100% of the better business. Ultimately, this is GME attempting to swap into a better business by selling itself to eBay, not vice versa. Everyone knows this deal won't happen, Ryan Cohen included.

The IPO market has been strong during the recent rally, now the big boys are coming to the head of the line. SpaceX probably just a couple weeks away from making their filing public.

@Emotion78687 Goo goos.

A live performance that gives you chills. 🎤💫

Technical analysis like this is useful not only for short term traders but also for position traders or long term investors. Notice the key statements such as “buyers are in control”. There is a lot of narrative out there right now about possible upcoming events, or the unsustainable April we just had or seasonality or being in a mid term year-a good investor needs tools to separate the false narratives from the facts. In February, before any bombs were dropping or viral posts on X Brian’s videos were demonstrating weakness in most sub sectors (energy and semiconductors being the exceptions). That’s why even though I’m not a day trader I study technical analysis, I make timing decisions and determine my asset allocations and risk positions based on market structure, and I subscribe to people like Brian for those insights.

@HolderOfLight @grok @ValerieAnne1970 @IfindRetards @elonmusk See if grok can find the cause if he is so smart.

@grok @ValerieAnne1970 Nominating Grok for @IfindRetards. @elonmusk

HORRIFYING: 5-year-old develops severe Autism after court-forced vaccines. A Tennessee judge's ultimatum during a custody battle led to a child receiving 18 VACCINES in ONE DAY. After vaccination, Isaac was hospitalized in ICU for 12 days, and later diagnosed with Autism.

@johnkonrad That’s impressive firepower for sure…..

BREAKING: New Trump Class Battleship drawings have dropped. Early reports indicate that Hung Chao has upgraded the bow mounted cannons.

@no_pullbacks @Norseman1 That bear has good taste in beer at least! It should make the disbelief easier to swallow. Cheers NPII hope you have a nice weekend

What say you, bears? #StockMarket $ES_F $SPY $SPX $NQ_F $NDX $QQQ $DIA $DJIA $YM_F @Norseman1

Hi Sam, I’ve been reading through your exchange here and I might offer a different perspective. The list of 5 are events, or news, or catalysts. I think events matter-when I was working on Wall Street we did a number of studies on event risk and there were periods of time that events dominated returns. But fundamentally that’s a different category than both market structure and “macro” or longer cycle trends. I consider the latter to be my strength and the former my weakness and that is why I subscribe to Norseman-who excels at market structure in my opinion. the fact of the matter is that some “events” move the market and others don’t so identifying catalysts isn’t enough to make predictions and that’s where the other two topics come in. Sometimes market structure is weak and just waiting for a catalyst, any catalyst to ignite the fire so to speak. Norseman was signaling that in February before the US started bombing Iran. It’s not that he predicted the bombing campaign, it’s that he discerned the market was vulnerable to a catalyst. It could have been the forced liquidation of a private credit fund. His work determines that now that market structure is strong and therefore it will withstand events like the breaking of the ceasefire or bad inflation numbers or spiking oil prices. So on the one hand sure you haven’t seen the analysis that goes into that view so it’s hard for you to have conviction, but my point is that the possibility of events does not counter that analysis. Turning to the macro my view is the markets are pricing in a frozen Fed, and frozen at relatively high real rates on the yield curve. So some of those events are priced into the cost of money. Secondly history shows that oil shocks often start with fears of inflation and then translate into fears of slowdown. We haven’t seen any evidence of that second step and it may not occur due to the fact 1-north American energy prices have decoupled from Europe and Asia, and 2-the us is a net energy exporter unlike the oil shocks of the previous 50 years. I hope this post is appreciated, I wish you the best and an enjoyable weekend. Cheers.

anything is possble. they probably said the same thing in 1987 before it dropped 20% i do plenty of study. one of them is market psychology which is the most important as that defies the charts to some extent. pure hopium at the moment. what if war starts again this weekend? is that bullish? what if taiwan gets blockaded by china? is that bullish? what if Taiwan declare they have to cut production for low energy with no new coming LNG for energy? is that bullish. what if big countries start selling us euquties to solves there own crisis from the supply shock? what if equities are sold to help the private credit problem? the most liquid assets get sold first there is real factors out there that can crush this in a heartbeat. my bets are on taiwan to crush this ai bubble.

Well there is multiple reasons. This market could drop 10% on one headline. Blow off top is in full swing

@GlowSurfing @WallStreetApes @Fayevalentino2 Sad but true.

@WallStreetApes @Fayevalentino2

Americans need to understand how comfortable Democrats have become with calling for extreme violence and murder Liberal woman user (RubyRedBedHead) “This ends when we stand up and we start shooting back. Get your guns, get your militia, get your people. And when ICE comes to town, don't give them a chance. Get a sniper and shoot. Blow their f*cking faces off. Watch them drowned in their own goddamn blood because America will be great again. When we realize that we're the ones who make the rules. People, if you don't like the motherf*ckers that are in there, then take 'em the f*ck out — Stand up for your goddamn rights. Stop being p*ssies — little b*tches flip the goddamn tables, let 'em know who's f*cking boss, and take the motherf*ckers out. It's as serious and as simple as that. Pick up your guns and the tyranny and blow their f*cking asses away. Game over.”

@psujwj 💯

Stop call them people. They’re not people

@Emotion78687 Mazzy

How everyone at the concert sat down and shut up and listened to her. She was hypnotic.

@PresbyInn June 1 1785. Adams bowed thrice.

"...who, though separated by an ocean, and under different governments, have the same language, a similar religion, and kindred blood.” - John Adams to King George III, June 1, 1785

The 57 Republicans who voted No on the amendment to STOP the government from controlling your car. Mark E. Amodei (NV) Don Bacon (NE) Stephanie Bice (OK) Gus Bilirakis (FL) Mike Bost (IL) Ken Calvert (CA) John R. Carter (TX) Tom Cole (OK) Mario Diaz-Balart (FL) Neal Dunn (FL) Chuck Edwards (NC) Jake Ellzey (TX) Randy Feenstra (IA) Randy Fine (FL) Brian Fitzpatrick (PA) Chuck Fleischmann (TN) Vince Fong (CA) Andrew Garbarino (NY) Carlos A. Gimenez (FL) French Hill (AR) Jeff Hurd (CO) Brian Jack (GA) John James (MI) David Joyce (OH) Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ) Mike Kelly (PA) Jen Kiggans (VA) Kevin Kiley (CA) Young Kim (CA) Kimberlyn King-Hinds (MP – Northern Mariana Islands) Darin LaHood (IL) Nick LaLota (NY) Mike Lawler (NY) Frank Lucas (OK) Nicole Malliotakis (NY) Celeste Maloy (UT) Brian Mast (FL) Dan Meuser (PA) Max Miller (OH) Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA) Tim Moore (NC) Blake Moore (UT) James Moylan (GU – Guam) Greg Murphy (NC) Dan Newhouse (WA) Zach Nunn (IA) Hal Rogers (KY) Maria Elvira Salazar (FL) Mike Simpson (ID) Elise Stefanik (NY) Glenn Thompson (PA) Mike Turner (OH) David Valadao (CA) Derrick Van Orden (WI) Rob Wittman (VA) Steve Womack (AR) Ryan Zinke (MT)

@AndrewZywiecMD @zoeharcombe It’s amazing the criticisms on this thread. It was not easy on anyone during this time. This guy made his choices and I read them got it. Cheers

I spent 5 years in undergrad (biology and chemistry, magna cum laude), 5 years in grad school/med school (neuroscience/physiology and medicine, summa cum laude and cum laude, respectively), and almost 3 years in residency. When I arrived, all they wanted me to to was force COVID shots, support gender mutilation, and shill for pharma. I walked away. So don't tell me people have no choice. I gave up everything, at the finish line, in first place, because the race was corrupt. You either have integrity or you don't.

@AndrewZywiecMD @izzyayfr Followed one, unfollowed the other.

@izzyayfr Are you gonna cry? How many COVID shots did you recommend? Are they giving vaccines where you work? Have you stood silent on child butchery? You don't even use your real name. Any time you want, we can discuss, publicly or privately.

@JackMaxey1 @CryptoTice_ Losses will be suffered Jack. Be wary, don’t cause your constituents to fear doom and gloom. Cheers to you.

@CryptoTice_ The bailout of Spirit is just a signal that the private credit mkt is about to implode. IMHO

MASSIVE: The Fed just announced a $7,587,000,000 injection. Tomorrow. Not next week. Not next quarter. Tomorrow. Governments don't inject this much liquidity for no reason. They inject it when something is breaking. Or when they're preparing for something big. $7,587,000,000. One day. Be positioned before the money hits.

These look pretty good👇😋 Keto Friendly Crispy Avocado Fries What you need: 1/2 an avocado 1 cup Parmesan 1 large egg Seasonings of your choice How to make them: 1. Preheat your oven to 450F. 2. Mix all ingredients and shape into fries on a parchment lined baking sheet. 3. Bake for 10-12 minutes, until crispy and golden brown. 4. Serve with your favorite dipping sauce & enjoy!

@AllyJKiss @MatthewTyrmand They shouldn’t have been closed

Dear Jack Posobiec, Leaving context out of a post like this is misleading at a minimum. All holy sites in the Old City of Jerusalem, including the Western Wall, the Temple Mount and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre have been closed since February 28, 2026 due to the war with Iran. An Iranian missile struck a few hundred meters from the Old City, the Western Wall, Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre on March 12, 2026. Your post, without context, is misleading and suggests Cardinal Pizzaballa was blocked for no reason- you leave readers to come to their own conclusions at a time when the Woke Right is disseminating antisemitic propaganda under the guise of mere dislike for the country of Israel. Shame on you.

@Laura_Avery711 I’m sorry Laura. Cheers.

IBM has screwed their American employees for DECADES. I was one of them.