Peter Dodds

@pdicarlotrader “Prior gains” don’t matter though. That takes you into the realm of “not wanting to sell until I’ve made my money back” and other biases. All that matters is looking forward - i.e. is this set-up likely yield a return?

$NBIS has been in a bull cycle since June 2024. The stock is up over 200%. It just pulled back into discount range with the monthly BX still green. 68% of the time, that means a breakout to a higher high is coming. I'm still not buying. Here's the honest reason why. Last time this exact setup appeared, $NBIS rallied 20% in 5 weeks. We called it. The setup is back. But here is the thing about trading a long-term system. Every bull cycle eventually ends. And when it ends, you are going to take a loss. That is not a problem as long as you made enough money on the way up to absorb it. I have not taken every $NBIS setup in this cycle. That is on me. Which means if I enter now and the cycle turns in two months, I take a 20-30% loss without enough prior gains to justify the risk. The math does not work in my favor. This is not me saying the setup is bad. The setup is good. This is me being honest about my own position in the trade. If you have been trading $NBIS through this cycle and booking profits along the way, this pullback is worth a serious look as a dip buy opportunity. If you haven't, sit with me on the sideline and wait for the next clean entry. Discipline is not just about when to get in. It is knowing when the trade is not yours to take.

@mvcinvesting Bango. UK AIM market. Microcap currently way undervalued at $75m but a world leader in bundling technology (where telcos offer additional services eg TV). Coming into GAAP profitability this year. Fwd PE 18, EV/EBITDA 4x, FCF Yield 7%, EBITDA margin 30%+, Rev growth +15% pa.

I know everyone is focused on the current macro environment, but… Any interesting sub-$5B market cap stocks worth researching?

@StockSavvyShay Do you seriously believe SOFI’s finance team and their auditors are this stupid?

Muddy Waters again raised concerns on $SOFI alleging the company booked a $312M $JPM loan as a sale instead of debt. The firm argues this could require a broader restatement, potentially affecting ~$1B of previously reported EBITDA and pushing capital ratios materially lower.

@SoFi A proper response to Muddy Waters’ claims to get the stock price moving up.

We listened to our members. Like, really listened. Big SoFi Plus news dropping 3/31. Reply with what you're hoping for 👇

@WheelieInvestor Here we go again. Claude can do mouse clicks so it’s taking over the world.

Brutal day for $ZETA Down 8% 🔴🔴

@gregory_FTA It’ll take just five years for cumulative earnings to match current mcap. $MU allegedly signing five year supply contracts already. Some earnings will be used to build fabs for even greater production. So you’ve then got all future production >5 years to add. It’s obvious!

$MU I intentionally added a humorous tone and hyperbole, but in all seriousness, what do you think they are going to do with this cash? If the stock price is anywhere near current price, the buybacks will be ferocious.

@MrNoelHumphrey @LBC @NickFerrariLBC Jobs. Tax. Supply chains. Reduced carbon from not importing LNG. Have I missed any other benefits?

@LBC @NickFerrariLBC Oil that comes out of the North Sea does not belong to the government. It is sold on the world market. Absolutely no benefit to the UK consumer

'How come they're all wrong and you and Ed Miliband are right?' @NickFerrariLBC questions Business Secretary Peter Kyle as energy bosses call on the government to back North Sea oil and gas drilling.

@ActAccordingly Q: Why are MU and SK Hynix spending tens of billions in capex that will take two years to start producing? A: because they see a very extended period of growing demand. If it’s still cyclical it’s a much longer cycle than previously.

If you're wondering about the action in $MU today, I think you should look to Druckenmiller's sage advice on chemical stocks. If you don't look at the $MU print as anything but a commodity producer benefitting from a supply/demand imbalance you're probably not going to do well here. I don't make the rules, he does: "Chemical stocks, however, behave quite differently. In this industry, the key factor seems to be capacity. The ideal time to buy the chemical stocks is after a lot of capacity has left the industry and there’s a catalyst that you believe will trigger an increase in demand. Conversely, the ideal time to sell these stocks is when there are lots of announcements for new plants, not when the earnings turn down. The reason for this behavioral pattern is that expansion plans mean that earnings will go down in two to three years, and the stock market tends to anticipate such developments."

@realroseceline Op profit guidance for +30% this year, which implies a doubling of share price in three years if maintained. Don’t know why declining gross margins has come under the microscope - smacks of the declining take-rate “issue” that I thought had been put to bed.

Cleaver: on the call, the $DLO CFO said they will start reporting operating metrics. Should add clarity and shift attention away from a decelerating take rate. 🌹

@MichaelARothman Did you miss the bit where the Strait of Hormuz was open before Trump started his personal war with no consultation with allies?

𝗞𝗔𝗥𝗢𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘 𝗟𝗘𝗔𝗩𝗜𝗧𝗧 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗗 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗥𝗜𝗗𝗘 The White House just made the argument that every American taxpayer has been waiting decades to hear said out loud from a DC apparatchik. A reporter asked why other countries should help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Karoline Leavitt's answer was direct and devastating: 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯. Then she laid out exactly who benefited and how. Iran struck more than 300 civilian targets across the Gulf region. Iran's ballistic missile program — now being wiped out by the US military — was a direct and imminent threat to European allies and American bases alike. Iran's nuclear program, left unchecked, was a threat the entire Western world agreed could never be allowed to succeed. 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗴𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗳𝗶𝘁𝘀. Germany issued a statement declining to participate. Japan said it has made no decisions. Australia said it won't send ships. And yet every one of those countries just had an existential nuclear threat neutralized on their behalf by American pilots, American ships, and American taxpayers. The ask now is simple: help keep the shipping lane open. The same shipping lane your economies depend on. The same lane that Iran — the regime America just largely dismantled — is trying to choke off. This isn't a request anymore. It's an invoice. And as Trump made clear — 𝘸𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘮𝘃𝘦𝘳 who paid it and who didn't. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗿𝗮 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗼 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗲𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿.

@EricLDaugh Trump starts war only he and Netenyahu want and then is surprised when other countries say “you’re on your own, mate”. What a shock.

🚨 HOLY SMOKES. President Trump just EVISCERATED American "allies" refusing to help the US secure the Strait of Hormuz, openly MOCKS them "Do you have any minesweepers? 'Well, we'd rather NOT get involved, sir!' I said, you mean for 40 YEARS we're protecting YOU and you don't want to get involved in something that is very minor?!" "Very few shots going to be taken because they don't have many shots left." "But they said, 'we'd rather not get involved!'" "We'll protect them! If ever needed, they WON'T BE THERE FOR US. I knew that for a long period of time!"

@mgdoyle1993 @Paddy_Boyland Poor take. Your 2.5xG included 1.0 for the 2nd goal, which wouldn’t have happened if Everton didn’t risk everything for an equaliser. Apart from that you had 25 lousy shots from difficult positions each worth <<0.1xG - so basically created nothing.

@Paddy_Boyland Every single win we are told we were lucky etc. Teams are turning up & defending with 9 players weekly. Shouldve had a pen in 1st half, & you created 1.2xg while we generated over 2.5xg not including the penalty we shouldve had!

Everton excellent for 89 mins of yesterday's game Despite missing two starting CB's, restricted Arsenal to next to nothing prior to late error & had big chances of their own. Thwarted by Raya/Calafiori and post 2-0 flattered PL leaders

@ToffeeWeb A really good effort - let’s not let the last few minutes cloud our judgement overall. We shackled Arsenal, and Pickford had very little to do until the 89th minute. Could easily have gone our way.

FT | Arsenal 2-0 Everton 🔵⏱️ A tough pill to swallow. We completely fell apart in the final 10 minutes after being well in the game. We had the chances to take the lead, but in the Premier League, you get punished if you aren't clinical. Incredibly frustrating end to the match. Where did it go wrong for you today? Drop your thoughts below, Blues. 👇

@insiderinvests This is the winter of our discontent.

Somebody explain to me how is it possible for the market to be green and $SoFi to be red

@Sanny_Rudra Only the “Beautiful Game” for you, Sanny? That went many years ago. I don’t know why you’re against a tactic that might result in winning the ball high up the pitch. Is it worse than long throws?

Elite footballers reduced to rugby union. Seriously, what’s the point if this is our game now?

@jtsla4 20.4% down in one day like Black Monday? Er, no.

Tomorrow will officially go down as the worst day ever in stock market history.

@Richlloyd1984 That’s not the point. You’re diminishing Branthwaite, Armstrong, O’Brien etc by playing them out of position. The team is stronger overall by playing the weaker full backs plus the others in their rightful positions.

@PeterDodds15 You rate Patterson and and Mykolenko ? . I think Mykolenko wouldn’t start for any other premier league club at LB and Patterson is top end of championship in standard

The reason we are playing players out of position at full back is because the full backs at the club are dog shit .

@Gre9orypeck09 @Richlloyd1984 Spot on. Moyes’ performance should be assessed on various KPIs. Is the league position satisfactory? ✅ Has the squad increased in value? Don’t Know. Have newbies been well integrated? ❌

@Richlloyd1984 There are 2 other critical questions; 1) Did he sign off on the right incoming players? Barry ❌ Dibling ❌ Rohl ❌ Alcaraz ❌ Aznou ❌ Grealish ✅ KdH ✅ 2) Is he utilising the squad well? IMO, No.

It’s simple for me when it comes to judging the managers time back at Everton and I ask 1 question . Has Moyes under performed with the players available in this squad ? . The answer is he simply hasn’t .

@oguzerkan AND Sales & Marketing costs are super-high (c30% of revenue) while they continue to build the brand. This depresses current EPS quite a lot. Drop some of that off in a couple of years and

If you thought you missed the $SOFI train, this is the second chance. EPS guidance for this year is $0.60, meaning you are paying 30x this year’s earnings for a company that is expected to grow revenues 30% this year. Management expects 38-42% annual EPS growth by 2028. If we take the mid-point and assume 40% annual EPS growth, we’ll get $1.17 EPS in 2028. The stock is now trading at just 15x 2028 earnings, while strong double digit earnings growth will likely continue at least for a decade ahead. One of the best long-term plays at the moment.