Jack. 👍🇵🇸.🇪🇺 .🇺🇦💚

BLIMEY. After disappointing borrowing numbers and the Bank of England’s hawkish tilt yesterday 10 year gilt yields reached highest levels since 2008 this morning above 4.9%… and possibly heading for 5%. This is rather delicate. The market judges the UK to be energy inflation prone, and somewhat political uncertainty prone too. UK political economy is sending messages right now… eg will the state always step in, in every circumstance now to stop energy bills rising for everyone, even in a generalised energy shock? See the Cornwall Energy projection of a possible £300 annual increase in energy cap typical bills. The IEA is about to advise the world on potential demand management solutions to help (of the sort Germany effected in 2022, which were deemed politically impossible in the UK). Across UK politics can there be reasoned conversations about these things? If the Gulf crisis continues all this will come to ahead in May, when the new energy price cap is set, in the middle of the aftermath of the May local elections, at a time when whispers emerge from leadership rivals of a looser relationship with fiscal prudence. As it happens, my sense is that the Treasury is firmly planning for a far more targeted offering for any support, IF needed, using data that was not available in 2022. The internal view is that many billions of pounds of Liz Truss’ universal £42 billion energy price guarantee scheme were wasted on rich households and on heating the air outside our badly insulated homes too. On top of that the market reaction to the Bank of England’s change of direction was somewhat overdone, as the Governor’s interview by me confirmed, as he told the MPC at the meeting, raising interest rates in the UK is not going to unblock the Strait of Hormuz… that said, some city economists are now saying we could get a rate rise next month, and markets imply three this year. Let’s see. These things could all change with one Truth Social post. There is some time here. We are less than a third of the way through the observation window on energy bills. Whatever the increase on bills summer is responsible for eg 7% of domestic gas consumption… so the immediate impact over summer would be around £10 a month. But there is an issue brewing at the crossover of political and geoeconomic uncertainty for the Autumn, and May is a key staging post. I can see why they keep saying they want a deescalation, both in the Gulf, and in gilts.

You’re offered $4 million to uninstall Facebook from your phone forever. Would you do it?

I have just spoken with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian. I called on him to put an immediate end to the unacceptable attacks Iran is carrying out against countries in the region, whether directly or through proxies, including in Lebanon and Iraq. I reminded him that France is acting within a strictly defensive framework aimed at protecting its interests, its regional partners, and freedom of navigation, and that it is unacceptable for our country to be targeted. The unchecked escalation we are witnessing is plunging the entire region into chaos, with major consequences today and for the years to come. The people of Iran, like those across the region, are paying the price. Only a new political and security framework can ensure peace and security for all. Such a framework must guarantee that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons, while also addressing the threats posed by its ballistic missile programme and its destabilising activities regionally and internationally. Freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz must be restored as soon as possible. I also urged the Iranian President to allow Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris to return safely to France as soon as possible. Their ordeal has gone on for far too long, and they belong with their loved ones.

'Israel's PM decides NUKING Iran is ONLY OPTION' finds top US wargame involving Pentagon personnel

Labour don’t understand business. 2020 - to employ a 21 year old 40 full time would cost £17,035 2026 - to employ a 21 year old 40 full time would cost £29,600 A 74% increase. Meaning a cafe needs £400k extra turnover just to fund ONE job!