Phaco

@dextropoz @astronomer_zero Well done, just saw this now and it ages very well

@astronomer_zero Maybe... just maybe history repeats once again

$BTC There is an 87.5% chance $BTC has bottomed For the ones who have been following me for a while, know this analysis already. But given that it's one of those days where $BTC is slightly red on the day, and everyone (literally) is putting out their posts that they expect lower, all saw this move down coming, even pulling up some old quotes where they vaguely called the top, lower their targets, or we simply see large cynicism without much content, I figured I'd continue my lone bull stance as we have come across another confluence, on top of all the confluences we have already given as to why I believe $BTC has bottomed, and won't hit the low 70's, let alone the 60's or 50's. In fact, we openly and in live time entered fully long "against all odds" and against the majority on this platform. Aim is to freshen up the timeline, give some hope, because yes it's easy from a successful traders standpoint to act cool on social media and write a few forced posts that don't mean all that much and just attempt to make it look like someone called something where that behavior only shows the opposite. It's harder to actually help people out and give them conviction with a type of analysis that historically outperforms the results of what even paid groups offer these days, here for free. Will keep this slightly shorter since you will find this type of analysis in the past under my name (keywords: FOMC reversal analysis astronomer), but followers doubled since last time so a quick recap never hurts. The analysis The analysis is quite simple, yet powerful. All it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day. That's exactly why it works so well. People usually expect a reversal after FOMC (due to the "news" it brings). Yet we know the market is forward pricing, hence why it catches the majority off guard. Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time), but data goes much further (I like to keep it recent for purposes of balancing up-to-date-criticism and sample size). And the time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day, is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date, as shown on the chart. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March. We're right in the middle of that timeframe. And because we hit major high timeframe levels from my end on the high timeframe (see $BTC macro analyses), because cyclical analysis expects a low shortly (any day now) both on the daily and weekly, and because a 0 bar difference i.e. a reversal on FOMC itself is rare, the chances only increase that the low is in. Sentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even "Reputable" traders are protecting their reputation with some random cautionary posts out of nowhere. I don't blame anyone's methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom. Personally, I prefer just looking at the data, act on it as ideally as possible, with high conviction whether I end up winning or losing. NFA.

@cmpstOperator po3 I guess and still i'm missing some (in)validation skills

@Phaco10 The structure told me everything.

$BTC - Shitfluencers aping longs at the range top, screaming “higher targets” 📈 Now they’re rewriting history like they nailed the move 🤡 Top buyers → instant hindsight experts. In crypto, the loudest voices are usually the exit liquidity. You decide who you follow. Small short on sub-account, bigger one on the main.

@cmpstOperator Very well done, I couldn’t bring myself to go in after the wick (4pm) took me :') I was waiting for a final liquidity sweep on the compression for a reversal. If you don't mind, what was your confirmation ? Bos ltf ?

@MoneyTaura @Moneytaur_ Same feeling, it takes me too much brain juice from what I'm aspiring to achieve while I was saying to myself "it's important to know at least the big guidelines". With all the current craziness happening, i can't. I join you with the blindfold, that's the good idea. Life's good

I’m so tired of the news. I really need to keep a blindfold on coming here. Charts and trading nothing else. It actually gives me such refreshing vibes seeing the candles move and follow patterns I spent years learning. And always a shoutout to @Moneytaur_ his teachings changed my life and his support made it significantly more special and important for me. Life’s good.

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@Albert_618 @77 and 10' at 72.75 (or 72.05)

@Albert_618 I like the 12hpBB @77.2

Theres a level on $BTC I like. Its not too far away. I think the probability to play out is good enough to try. You see what I see?

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@AwakenedPrimate @KillaXBT Well... This is rhetorical. What you call "big" is colossal for me (+30%). I don't want to speak on his behalf but this is just a hint and we are taking what we want to take as observations.

@Phaco10 @KillaXBT «They often appear when $BTC is on the verge of a big move» we only had one big move after a candle like that so the statement =doesnt really make sense 😔 if a $3–5k BTC range is a “big move” for you then there’s nothing left for us to discuss

Your friendly reminder to pay attention to indecision wicks… They often appear when $BTC is on the verge of a big move.

@AwakenedPrimate @KillaXBT Sorry but i'm confused... what is for you a "real move"? Let's be clear, my goal is not to say i'm right Just let me know, what is that ? If it's not a movement for you, we can agree to disagree and that's fine, have a nice day :D

@Phaco10 @KillaXBT come on … 😭😁 look 1st one weak candle — breakdown then two weak candles — breakdown now we’ve had four weak candles like that — and still no real move hope you can draw the conclusion yourself)

@nineinchtrails I just realized this time it's mentionning 2 fishes.. 📈📉

Let the party begin. ⚡️

Matrix.

@AwakenedPrimate @KillaXBT Come on.. It's good to have critical thinking, it's better to use it. Can't you see after each of these, a move occured ? What's your definition of big move ? 10%, 20% ? Anyway, puts aside the "big" and you can clearly see a direction taken after these wicks.

@KillaXBT but on your own chart these “indecision wicks” have appeared many times already and there was no big move after😁 so maybe the conclusion is that indecision wicks dont work that reliably

@astronomer_zero @cmpstOperator Me too :')

@cmpstOperator Exactly. Because every cycle, the biggest mistake most people make is waiting for lower while we are already low enough. I remember the 12k calls in 2022 like Yesterday

$BTC We now have a 90%+ chance bitcoin indeed does not go below 50k Supports our main thesis we have been holding for a month now, of a bottom, called on Feb 6th. Going against the plethora of people thinking 50k is first, or we see "the bear market continue" in the summer.

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@lucas67261771 Wow new info to integrate. Well explained 👌

Then Check DXY( Dollar index) vs Gold Measures strength of the dollar relative to gold. Look at that 12M chart. Down only since 1968 ☠️ Historical examples 1970s inflation 2001–2011 commodity cycle Repercussions Dollar reserve dominance questioned so BRICS gold accumulation then De-dollarization Commodities boom Emerging markets strengthen Energy prices rise

Where are we NOW in the market, and how to position/protect ourselves? My strategy, checking ratios. The first one: (Money Supply vs Gold) 📖📚 M2 money supply is a measure of how much money exists in the economy that people can spend or access relatively easily. It is tracked by the Federal Reserve to understand how much liquidity is circulating in the economy. Think of M2 as “all the money people can quickly use.” 👉 The 4 Things Included in M2 M2 includes several types of money. 1-Physical Cash Money in wallets and circulation. Examples: Dollar bills Coins 2-Checking Accounts Money in bank accounts used for everyday spending. Example: Debit card accounts Checking accounts at banks 3.Savings Accounts Money saved in the bank that can still be withdrawn. Example: Savings account Online savings account Even if you keep it for saving, it is still counted as money in the system. 4-Small Time Deposits & Money Market Funds Short-term deposits or funds that can quickly be turned into cash. Examples: •Certificates of deposit under 100k •Retail money market funds ⚠️If M2 shrinks Less money circulating. Possible effects: Economic slowdown Credit tightening Market stress When M2 grows very fast, currencies lose purchasing power. Example: If money supply doubles but gold supply barely changes, gold often rises. 🧠If the ratio falls: Gold is rising faster than money creation. That usually signals currency debasement concerns. Gold rises faster than money supply Confidence in fiat currency is weakening. ⚠️Gold is protecting against currency debasement.⚠️📚📖 Global: Currency instability Inflation Gold becoming monetary hedge Markets: Precious metals bull market Weak fiat purchasing power Central banks buying gold

Love this!

@CryptoCoiness @MariusSm1th @DoctorCatX @MoneyTaura So much relevant. I discovered few weeks ago the fibo channels, pretty bluffing too

@MariusSm1th @DoctorCatX @MoneyTaura Agree I use all the fibs and it really helps me understand much more than just the few everyone else uses from MT community. Who's to say some of his secret sauce isn't all the fibs at specific TF set ups.

FULL RECAP of the LTF thread that I posted today for educational purposes: 1⃣ At the 11:00 UTC hourly candle I said that bulls need ~4 more hours to attack because the kumo is too thick and bearish and based on the future SSB and Tenkan Sen angle it will get thinner after 4 hours: x.com/DoctorCatX/sta… 2⃣ After ~4 hours of consolidation and no attack, exactly 4 hourly candles later, at the 15:00 candle, bulls attacked for the first time the kumo for a breakout but rejected. Then I posted that for a higher chance for attack they need the kumo to flip bullish, which, based on future SSB angle would happen at 18:00 or 19:00: x.com/DoctorCatX/sta… 3⃣ At 18:50 the kumo had already flipped bullish. And, the 18:00 candle was exactly the first one to close successfully above the 1h kumo after two previous unsuccessful attempts - and the same candle was the first one to close above the 3h Kijun Sen. Because as I had explained bulls have higher chance for success with a bullish kumo. At this time I also said that the 120.4K high must be taken by midnight UTC to prevent a bearish TK cross on 6h and when so many things align also on the daily timeframe such milestones normally are covered: x.com/DoctorCatX/sta… This last even didn't happen. All in all, out of three assumptions, two came true as per the exact time schedule. Two out of three is not that impressive but I wanted to show you how these two came up with exact timing precision to the exact hour and forecasted on schedule a few hours in advance for specific events. Something truly unique only for Ichimoku which makes it different from all other TA systems. I don't normally cover LTF as it takes too much from my time. But despite the fact that I cover almost only HTF on Twitter, what I post here is probably 20% of what I see on the charts. And when I watch the chart regularly I see on a daily basis plenty of such things aligning with the same high precision. 🪄So today, as an exception, I showed you in a detailed way the magic of Ichimoku, and how if you learn how to read it you will see plenty of such things on the chart with the same timing precision over and over again. 🫴⏰Now you see how Ichimoku works literally like a "clockwork" - a few hours in advance it tells you what should happen by what time. And the hourly precision is on the hourly chart. On the minute timeframes this is scheduled by minutes of precision. 📚If you need to lean how to see such kind of things and even better - align multiple timeframes to get an idea of the whole puzzle: all you need to do is to learn the math formulas which Ichimoku uses to calculate its lines - from the pinned tweet. 👀📈And then watch how the candles form in the chart, thinking about the formulas and how the lines are formed. After some time, you will get trained to the point that you will literally need a few seconds to look at chart to get an idea what's cooking there. 🫴🇯🇵That's why Ichimoku is called "Ichimoku" - in Japanese it means "one look" (at the chart).

@Moneytaur_ Would be interested at the 2 opposite poles reversal as you call it <3 (+/btc)

W 🐸 Y/N?