Phathom

$PATH checks all the boxes: ✅Technical Founder-led company: Daniel Dines. ✅Cheap current valuation: 4x trailing sales. ✅Strong balance sheet: $1.4B in cash with zero debt. ✅Profitability: GAAP profitable and free cash flow positive. ✅Decreasing share count: Strong buybacks outpacing SBC driving shareholder value. ✅Growing TAM: Projected 30% CAGR through 2035 ✅Growth Catalyst Incoming: Agentic orchestration for enterprises is about to explode. ✅Strong moat: Over 10,000 "sticky" enterprise customers with high switching costs. $PATH has deep legacy system connectivity and governed agentic intelligence. ✅Vertical Integration: 9 pre-configured use-specific orchestrations (count is growing) that allows $PATH to quickly gain share at high margins. ✅Strong GTM Strategy: Large network of Value-Add Retailers, marketing partnerships with Deloitte and SAP, and growing UiPath marketplace. ✅Technology Partners: Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, LangChain, Snowflake, etc.

$PATH's screen agent will be over 90% accurate soon too. So will MacroHard. Computer vision will become commoditized - it won't be a differentiator. The need for enterprises to take an agnostic approach to orchestrating agents from the top layer down - this is what I'm betting won't be disrupted anytime soon. Instead of there being one Claude agent doing it all, there will be thousands of agents that need to be orchestrated to work together along side humans. This is where Maestro will fit into the equation. Smaller, simple businesses/processes will be automated without orchestration, but complex, high volume corporations? This is where $PATH will remain relevant.

Below are a couple screenshots from Claude's new computer-use function that is causing a sell-off in $PATH share price today. I have no doubt the product will be powerful, but I predict some major mishaps stemming from people misusing it or from the model straight up hallucinating/producing errors. We're still in the Wild West phase of AI agents. Once these mishaps make headlines, the broader market will understand why enterprises will still be drawn to the orchestrated trust layer that $PATH has built. $PATH and Claude aren't fierce competitors - they are compliments to each other. Claude models can be used within Maestro orchestrations. $PATH is a significant partner and integrator of LLMs including Claude. The risk to $PATH is if they get cut out of the automation equation completely (i.e., LLMs fully vertically integrate orchestration), but I don't see large enterprise customers wanting that anytime soon. I believe large enterprises would rather use a proven trust layer that is agnostic to the LLM as opposed to locking their agentic entperise into one LLM vendor (e.g., Claude). This is the current $PATH thesis and why I am still bullish.

@liebertjohanm @flippyfloppy52 I would be more concerned about this is $PATH were trading at an expensive multiple. At its current price, a strong beat will cause a pop in the stock price. Imo there is very little short-term downside risk while having lots of upside potential.

@flippyfloppy52 additional note, markets don't care. They'll just see it as claude eating path no matter how you frame it

Additional note on $PATH. The hybrid deterministic/probabilistic approach is still an advantage over pure LLM approach. But my problem right now is in figuring out why deterministic guardrails cannot simply be an added feature by Anthropic down the line.

It certainly can and probably will. But remember, Claude models can be deployed within UiPath Maestro. The flexibility of a completely agnostic platform like $PATH still seems to be desirable in many cases vs. vendor lock-in of only using Claude. This is evident by the recent news of Deloitte choosing UiPath as the trust layer to build agentic ERP solutions for their customers.

Without having done a lot of research on $KLAR, "Buy Now Pay Later" has the obvious consumer credit risks attached to it. I am looking for stocks that will perform well during the AI-driven labor market/macroeconomic deterioration. Klarna does not check that box for me. For that reason, I'm out.

What's the most compelling bear cases for $KLAR? Share quality / researched thoughts and I'll follow you! Considering building out a $KLAR position under $PATH because... - Founder CEO with a product that's good for consumers compared to credit cards - Unlocking the most insane AI productivity unlocks I've seen since $LMND (Klarna's employee count is down from over 6,000 in 2022 to under 3,000 today and the CEO projects it will be under 2,000 through natural attrition by 2030). - Trading 0.43x enterprise value/sales seems cheap for a tech company growing 20%-30% top line - 1.9x book value isn't stretched for a bank, compare to $SOFI at 2.05x and $JPM at 2.25x - PEG Ratio (5yr expected) 0.09 - IPO premium completely disappeared and now its trading at ~$5B when it was worth $45B in the private market in 2021. I normally don't like buying companies within a year of IPO when much of the float is still locked up, but I've started nibbling $KLAR and researching it while its down ~75% from its IPO and I want to know the why that's a BAD idea.

Deloitte's agentic ERP solutions will be powered by $PATH 🚀

I know this was announced a couple weeks ago, but I don't think the market appreciates how bullish of a signal this is. This move places Maestro at the center of Deloitte's ERP buildouts for its enterprise clients. This opens up many customers that trust Deloitte for entperise solutions/consulting, but may not yet know about the power of UiPath. This is a masterclass in "win-win" marketing. The UiPath trust layer will be leveraged by Deloitte to deploy complex ERP solutions to their customer base. This shows that Deloitte recognizes the power of Maestro as the best agentic orchestration solution for scalable, secure, auditable, model-agnostic agentic workflows. I don't think this will stop at Deloitte. There's no reason why other large consulting firms won't strike large deals with $PATH as well.

This is exactly why $PATH's agentic orchestration will be in high demand. Deterministic guardrails are essential.

@akuraS13 Thank you!

@PhathomResearch congratulations！

Married the love of my life yesterday. The most important investment I've ever made. Haven't posted on X in over a week - feels good to step away for a bit honestly. Will get back to regular updates soon. -Phathom

If you stop posting on X for a week, the algorithm seems to make you pay for it 😂 #worthit

@ki_to_yonder Thank you!

@PhathomResearch Congrats buddy, the most impactful decision in one’s life per the oracle of Omaha

@TheMurscenary Yeah, I could see that setting up as a good trade if the refi boom takes off. Will keep an eye on it. I usually have longer-term positions than that though.

@PhathomResearch Put rocket mortgage in your radar..consumer/unenployment/private credit destruction. More than 20% mortgages are over 6%.,if that 10 year hits 3.5..it’s a refi golden age..like never before seen golden age. And they are big mother fuckers in that space

Thematic Perspective. When you have a highly concentrated portfolio, it's important to have a macro view that aligns with your investments. This is an important box to check. No matter how strong the company-specific fundamentals are, I won't invest long-term if the business model doesn't align with my view of where the world is heading. Here are my main thematic perspectives through 2030 that inform my current positions. - The Space Economy will continue to expand driven by both public sector and private sector demand. Examples: Buildout of space systems for lunar and Mars missions; continued defense spending such as Golden Dome; datacenters and pharmaceutical manufacturing in orbit - AI agents will be a significant part of the "workforce" at every major company - Unemployment rate will rise significantly driven by AI displacing many entry-level white collar jobs A couple years ago, my thematic views on outerspace were even more simple: demand for orbital launch was growing and SpaceX's medium launch vehicle (Falcon 9) desperately needed a competitor to break up its monopoly. This is what led me to heavily purchase $RKLB shares in 2023-2024. These macro views are what I use to justify my continued concentrated positions in $RKLB and $PATH. $RKLB is currently priced at a premium, but in my opinion, this is justified by their extremely strong foothold as an end-to-end space company and prime contractor for the both public and private sector. The barrier to entry for a competitor to catch up to RKLB is massive. $PATH is positioned extremely well to capitalize on the emerging economy of AI agents making their way into the workforce. Although we are in the early innings of agentic adoption across enterprises, the macro environment looks to be setting up to nurture PATH's growth. The reason why I mentioned the third bullet (my expectation of unemployment rising) is that it is currently steering me away from investing in consumer-facing businesses. In the end, thematic perspectives are an important part of the qualitative assessment of a long-term investment. I use them to add context to my positions and justify if they make sense in today's rapidly changing world.

@norbert_d_d Thanks!

@PhathomResearch Congratulations!

@ChrisMMillas Thank you sir.

@PhathomResearch Amazing. Congrats my friend.

@KrRishabh_ Thank you!

@PhathomResearch Congratulations 🎉

@realroseceline @fifteenCAGR Same here. I was burned investing in oil stocks when I was young. Learned my lesson. I'd much rather invest in businesses that are not tied to a volatile commodity price.

@fifteenCAGR I don’t even look at the energy sector, I am not competent in o&g and have no advantage there. Also, sometimes oil prices are high, and sometimes they’re low and that’s one of the things that makes the industry not investable to me.🌹

This market is giving 2022. I’m old and not sure if I used “is giving” correctly, but all I know is those of you who will “never buy” energy (@realroseceline) may want to reconsider.

Totally understand your rationale and appreciate the transparency. I am still banking on it being the very early innings of enterprise agentic adoption - I still believe $PATH is set up for growth, so I am giving the position the rest of the year at minimum. And while I wait, I like the entry point valuation with limited downside risk in the short-term. But I do think this will be a longer-term growth story than initially anticipated, so fully understand your rotation out.

Portfolio Update — Exiting $PATH Full transparency as I think it is important even if I get hate, I sold my full position in UiPath yesterday. Here’s my thinking: When I built my thesis, the core assumption was that UiPath would accelerate into the agentic AI era. Enterprises were already deeply embedded in their automation workflows, and the logical next step was orchestrating AI agents on top of that foundation — high switching costs, expanding NRR, compounding growth. That was my bet back in October. Not only did the Anthropic news come out after that but growth came in slower than my model had forecasted. Even with solid fundamentals, the MOAT deterioration is impacting pricing power and growth…. this is not a moment to walk to the finish line. In high stakes AI infrastructure, growth is the moat and if that growth doesn’t arrive on schedule, the valuation math starts working against you fast. There is still a credible path for UiPath to grow into the orchestration layer and I think they should easily beat guidance. But the window is narrowing every day, and I can’t say with confidence where they stand in 5–10 years. When the thesis isn’t as strong as you think it was, you exit. Not when the stock is down. Not when sentiment turns. When the underlying assumptions that got you in no longer hold. Proceeds rotated into three positions: $LMND — Perhaps my most predictable position. Lemonade is AI native at its core ….not a legacy insurer “utilizing” technology, but a company built from the ground up around machine learning underwriting. The key metrics I’m watching are loss ratio trajectory and car insurance expansion. As their models improve at pricing risk, margins expand structurally. The trajectory is improving and I’m comfortable sizing up here. $TEM — Tempus AI is building what may become the most valuable proprietary dataset in oncology. They combine large scale genomic sequencing with real world clinical data, then apply AI to surface actionable insights for physicians at the point of care. Data network effects in healthcare are extraordinarily difficult to replicate once you have the data advantage, it compounds. This is my largest position and I’m comfortable holding through further volatility as long as the thesis remains intact. $ODD — I’ve held ODDITY on and off for a long time(since ipo) and I’m not going anywhere. The recent selloff has been a bit overblown imo— the stock dropped nearly 50% after management disclosed a CAC dislocation driven by algorithm changes at their largest advertising partner, which pushed spend into lower quality auctions and more than doubled acquisition costs. Q1 2026 revenue is expected to decline roughly 30% YoY as a result. That’s painful on the surface. But the underlying business health tells me something else: 70% of 2025 revenue came from repeat customers, new brand launches, CEO buying $10m worth of shares and a pristine balance sheet. Management believes they’ve identified the root cause and are targeting normalized CAC by Q3 or Q4. I believe them. This to me reads as a technical pothole, not a structural crack. The brand equity, retention metrics, and ODDITY LABS product pipeline remain intact for me. Current allocation for portfolio: 50% $TEM 30% $LMND 20% $ODD To be clear; these positions have been hit hard and I expect potentially more downside which I am fine with. I don’t think people understand that short term pricing does not mean anything to me. $TEM could go to $30 and as long as the business fundamentals stay in tact, I won’t blink an eye. Do not buy if you’re not ok with volatility. Best of luck to $PATH holders, I can still see potential upside from here. NFA. ~@AuditTheHerd

@AuditTheHerd Dines also started his career at MSFT. Would be full circle.

At this point, it has never made more sense for $MSFT to buy $PATH. One of my largest criticisms of UI Path is their lack of urgency with marketing their product. Microsoft already has the network and deployment teams necessary and they’re lacking an orchestration layer. It might cannibalize their agentic (copilot) but it’s terrible anyways so who cares.