Rhyne Howard u3.5 3PM | TS -135
7.11.26 Play #1 | #DareToDream
Fading the home demon against a PDX high-point defense that held her to just 7 attempts last game.
The Fire defense is B5 in Rates allowed to Rim, Paint, Cutters and Drives lol -- insane. They still throwing high traps and forcing people inside, so fading Rhyne from distance as she is the top culprit is a fine idea.
2/10 this season with 9 or fewer attempts.
Jessica Shepard u24.5 PR | DK -120
6.28.26 Play #1 | #WingsUp
Jessica Shepard can do it all on the offensive end, yet not much on the defensive end. However, with Kuier now in the starting mix more, DAL's defense has shifted to allowing a ton of Pullup (2nd) and Midrange (1st) looks. Minnesota likes their transition offense and jumpers over Shepard have been free there. Attacking her means her rebound upside is generally down.
Minnesota defense is still a CnS funnel, allowing the 2nd highest rate in their L10, with 3s making up 43.3% of opposing shots in their L7. Poor for Shepard who is looking to work inside. Shepard is 0/2 vs MIN this season (17 per game), and 1/7 vs above-average Center PR defenses.
7 THINGS TO EXPECT in the WNBA TODAY:
Liberty vs Aces | Rivalry Day
1) Just one game today. The Liberty won 8 in a row before dropping their last two, each by just a basket. Both teams are 8-2 in their L10.
Satou Sabally drew the start last game with Astier and Johannes coming off the bench; Sabally played 27 minutes here and notched a season high 26 PRA against The Sparks. She has fired up 11, 12 and 14 FGA in three games with 20+ minute this season.
2) Sabrina Ionescu is just unbettable currently. She played 22 minutes vs The Sparks and tailed just 2 points (3 FGA) alongside 5 RA. It's possible that her line will continue to be inflated based on prior seasons, so could just be a fade solely on that point.
“Things are going to take a little bit of time to materialize. But all you can ask for somebody is to just stick with it and have that confidence.” - DeMarco
Ionescu took no 2H shots last game and Astier closed the game with rest of starters.
3) The Aces aren't a great matchup, slowing down to 13th in PACE their L7 games while allowing the fewest OPP APG, FTA, and Cut Finishes in that span. They have instead allowed the most Pullup shots, good for Stewart/Satou/Johannes.
Stewart is facing the MVP favorite in A'ja though unsure if that will be her direct matchup. Both A'ja and Stewart have been doing more offball defending, with Stewart guarding Hamby (over Ogwumike) last game.
4) With Jones on A'ja here, I'd expect Stewart to handle the rebounding duties.
Admittedly Jonquel has crushed her rebound mark against A'ja with 16, 12, 24 and 9 in the 4 regular season meetings with Stewart.
5) Aces have really just been putting Nalyssa Smith as the Center defender (Shepard, Stokes, Mack), so she should take Jonquel here. In my mind this gives Jonquel Jones a huge size advantage. Jonquel has played just one game vs the A'ja/Smith duo, yet Stewart was out so she was defended by Wilson.
Would expect Jonquel to crush early in these post ups and then Aces send help, good for her passing upside (5+ Ast in 3 straight) and in the NYL shooters.
Marine Johannes is likely playing just 16-20 minutes again, but still her 3PT volume is pretty solid after firing up 7 vs The Sparks last game.
6) The Liberty defense has ranked B5 vs Interior/Drive finishes (in frequency) in their L7 games, allowing the 3rd most PITP in that span overall yet still ranking 2nd in DRTG due to allowing the fewest Pts off TOV.
Still no Chennedy Carter here, so another 26-30 minutes in store for Nalyssa Smith, who is especially needed vs this Liberty size anyways. She is down to 5.5 Reb here, and across the last 3 seasons she is 31/40 with 26+ minutes. Recent frontcourts: - Ogwumike 6 / Hamby 8 - Iriafen 6 / Austin 7 - Stevens 6 (20min) / Cardoso 4 - Austin 6 / Betts 6 - Reese 9 / Hillmon 1
Not very encouraging. A'ja has notched 16, 16, 10 and 14 Reb in her L4 games against The Liberty.
7) Chelsea Gray is a fade candidate here given NYL's length limiting that midrange zone. Her and Fiebich will guard each other on both ends. Expecting a lot more usage from Jackie as a driver, but with Aces slowing down heavily it should be a poor box score overall.
My MLB Play Of The Day☢️
Tomoyuki Sugano 15.5 POs “O”
(+100)CZRs
❤️IF TAILING & READY TO BUILD ON OUR 5-0 RUN!
⚾️#4#BirdLand Vs #GuardsBall
Sugano is OVER this line in 10/18(56%) of starts this season.
He’s one of the MOST efficient pitchers in baseball in terms of P/PA, as he simply attacks the opposing hitters.
Extremely low Walk/K numbers from Sugano should work effectively against a swing early CLE lineup.
We saw this exact line earlier in the season that resulted in a 7 inning gem 87 pitch gem from Sugano against the Guardians on 4/17.
Cleveland has been TERRIBLE vs RHP this season, and in the L30 days that’s continued, as they have the lowest BA & OPB to opposing RHP in all of baseball.
I’ll gladly back Sugano in one of the more “friendlier” matchups he will see the remainder of the year.
Morning Wake and Sweat 🔒 +1301
Tennis (Wimbledon Action)
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Fav 2 = Sabalenka + Norrie
Sprinkled - Fritz Under (gets it done in 3) and Alcaraz to beat Rublev 3-1 (riskiest)
#wimbledonpicks#tennisbets#parlay#prizepicks#Wimbledon2025
4 Man Picks Parlay +851 🔒
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Last one hooked by a singular inning more than likely, so bounce back bet at lower odds - nightcap always a better time to bet.
Adding 2 best NRFI - LAD vs HOU , and SEA vs PITT
Mize 3.5 K (O)
N. Howard 7.5 R (O) + 100 - safer at 6.5