Picolas Cage

BTW my thesis for the next bear market is everything else apart from $BTC and $ETH gets nuked, BTC and ETH still suffer 50-60% drawdowns, but the final 10% of said drawdown is a daily wick that is eaten up and borderline in actionable for large majority. My theory is ETF's have structurally changed the nature of flows into the market and with a massive tardfi TAM, BTC and ETH won't experience as aggressive downside volatility. I think as a consequence BTC and ETH will become a flight to safety as alts complete their inevitable price depreciation of 80-90% drawdowns. $BTC.D (dominance) will rise, in accordance with all other cycles behaviour. As BTC + ETH rise, a new 'cycle' will emerged for alts, whereby crypto natives can rotate some of their BTC and ETH gains into *whatever new shiny thing* is available and trendy. In short, it will FEEL like a regular bear cycle, but in reality the game has changed for BTC and ETH - forever. This means the window in time for the average non rich person to get generational exposure to BTC and ETH is closing, very rapidly. I really do think after ETH breaks 5 figures and BTC breaks 6 figures they won't meaningfully trade below those levels again - as in for a long enough period of time to accumulate. IMO in this next cycle, the strategy of selling all alts into BTC or ETH and stomaching a 50-60% drawdown that will soon be recovered within 2 years is probably a much safer strategy - because your window to benefit from being early to BTC and ETH will be gone very soon. After this bullmarket, the average individual won't be able to compete with tradfi inflows + their size. This wasn't true of this bear market, you could have DCA BTC and ETH and have big bags right now. In 2025 or whenever this market ends, your normie job won't be well paying enough to accumulate big bags of ETH or BTC. Essentially, most people will be priced out of owning 10 ETH or 1 BTC. I also believe that going forward alts will be less appealing each cycle as people just prefer the concensus trade of BTC and ETH that are guaranteed to go up due to ETF flows + because of new market participants size, you could still get 20-50% per year, with way less downside risk. As such I think people will be less interested in altcoins. This mimics how the S&P500 works, with basically 4-6 massive tech firms, like Google, apple, amazon, meta etc. Propping up the entire thing. In a nut shell, the market will mature. I'll update this thesis as time goes on 🫡

@Netokrypto No margin and excessive leverage then?

@Picolas_Caged This was wat I thought.. Then entered at 140, I hv been liquidated

Feel like a $SPCX long wouldn't be the worst idea for a relief bounce here. Thoughts anyone?

@Moby62X British - I'll care IF we can beat Argentina lol

@Picolas_Caged You’re not watching the match?

@FrankoYodaa It's so much better mate

@Picolas_Caged is ct healing fr?

My for you page has: No violence No racism No AI slop No geopolitics No thirst traps No made-up engagement bait stories It's just my friends, talking about crypto, one person after another. It's fucking perfect.

@Madge_80 It's awesome mate

@Picolas_Caged Very cool, I've done something similar for myself, really useful

6 days a week RN Built this with Claude Fable 5. Fully customised to me and my weak ankle + knee at 98.4kg and 36 years of age. It's awesome.

@fable_7887 Wasn't expecting the ending but agree

doug stays fluid. I am in a similar camp: > enough long-term spot btc that if this time is different & we already bottomed, i'm good. that exposure buys patience. > laddered buys from 58k to 38k. invalidation to deploy the remaining powder higher: btc above $82k or no new lows by EOY. have made the mistake before of thinking too deterministically & banking on a single outcome. now I stay fluid, sexually & financially.

@joshmanmode_ I'm straight as an arrow but you need to stop brother

@Picolas_Caged 🤣

I am now Italian

@glennmid10001 @JH_Investments Mate, every self employed tradie I know earns over 50k

@JH_Investments How people have the opportunity to earn £50k. Its all well making a song and dance about threshold if you avoid reality, the number of jobs that pay £50k

I’m going to try explaining my comments on tax from a different angle. The UK’s 40% tax band wasn’t the mistake. The mistake was allowing the threshold to remain so low that people still associate paying 40% tax with being wealthy. It’s a stealth tax rise, delivered through fiscal drag. Today, the higher-rate tax band starts at just £50,270. Does anyone seriously believe earning £50k a year makes someone wealthy in 2026?

@JH_Investments British people are so fucking embaressingly unambitious with their concept of money - I say this as a British person. £50,270 for higher-rate is so absurd and it also affect CGT and dividends so it really is a big deal.

@ItsChiAnh I'm jesus

@Picolas_Caged I don't even know what to comment right now lol

> Saylor ponzi looks rough after $MSTR dilution + selling > US government selling BTC + ETH > Fed says inflation is rising gain, mentions raising rates > Iran/US tension escalate, again > Japan building their own CIA - first time since WW2 ETH/BTC +0.32%

@serpinxbt Because i'm not a child - that shit made me stop using the app entirely

feed got much worse imo noticed last ~3 weeks the feed was way more addicting than usual, mostly sensationalized, euphoric, and hyperbolic content which is literally what makes social platforms tick -> make more money less entertaining now, don't expect it to stick

@fuhadd_sol Same bro i'm like euphoric

@Picolas_Caged I thought you all left

Look, I know everyone is going on about it, but it is nice to see everyone in the feed again.

@Madge_80 Compares my lifts/run times/swim times to other people/athletes and provides a 'reality check' which for me, motivates me. Btw so good to see you on the TL once again.

@Picolas_Caged What's the reality tab do/for?

@Ceazor7 🫡🤝

Picolas RTs monad NFT mint (More context in vid above) x.com/Picolas_Caged/…

Scrolling with Ceazor - 07/14/2026

@panamaXBT Bro it does right, I see the good takes, i see discussion, I see bullish takes, I see memes - it's SO much better

feels like olden days, good pumps and my friends can see my feed... wagmi.

@cryptoklotz If you weren't chipping away in some capacity around the 61-58k i'm afraid it was just greedy.

yup. 4y seasonality says bottom in oct. and i'm not fading that. but why i started buying earlier than that: i don't know if that bottom (assuming simulation continues) results in new lows. or a sweep of the lows. or simply a higher low. i think in all of the above scenarios, only a lower low really hurts you - everything else just gets you a 3-4 month head start on long term cap gains, or a slightly better entry. applies to majors or multi-cycle survivors - new stuff, would say there's too much uncertainty/opportunity cost there.

@HalscionRose Did, did you just say moncawk?

@Picolas_Caged its going to $0.08 but yes if anyone needs some $mon just DM me ill send you some also whos moncawk needs sukt to get a monad card ffs x.com/HalscionRose/s…

If you received Monad cards for the airdrop - you can now mint that card as an NFT (SBT) Mint here: cards.monad.xyz Probably a good idea to do this. If you don't have any $MON to mint you can buy it now for $0.022 before it goes to $0.07 in 2027.

All this talk about how much fees from Robinhood chain go to Ethereum etc. 1. All fees for ETH L1 are auction based - meaning, people compete with one another for blockspace, so in times of euphoric activity, GWEI is greatly raised. Right now, it's peak bearmarket, so fees are low. But imagine these fees when Base, Arbitrum, INK and Optimism (maybe Sonium) are all bidding for L2 blockspace + native ETH activity is higher in the bull market.... 2. I'm just looking at how we managed to build infra + create dev teams that now offer tradFi a way to get full crypto exposure that's fully customised (effectively making them land lords) and all it cost them was 11%. I think we've done really well as an industry to create that and it was all, ultimately, Ethereum's doing.