Piers Denney
2.3K posts

Piers Denney
@PiersDenney
ERP Consultant and Software Developer.
Kansas City, MO USA Katılım Aralık 2007
323 Takip Edilen141 Takipçiler

It was great talking to Stephen and the inspiring young people we’ve worked with at the @ObamaFoundation on the @ColbertLateShow.
When the Obama Presidential Center opens this June 19, my hope is that this will be a place where people can come together to meet, learn, and work with each other to create change in their communities. Learn more at tickets.obama.org.
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@itskyleconner Because the latest vehicle you've driven is now the 'it' vehicle.
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@wbuxtonofficial Such a shame that Electric vehicles are so much more efficient than ICE eh, inconvenient that isn’t it? Also, inconveniently, it take more energy to produce synthetic fuels than the synthetic fuels contain. Oops.
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Guess what folks. Fossil fuels are running out. Don’t want to convert to electric? You’re gonna need an alternate fuel for your engines. That’s where sustainable fuels come in. Ramp development through motorsport and it’ll hit a price and efficiency that’ll make it market ready.
That’s why it’s relevant and that’s why it matters both in racing and on the road.
OEMs want to push electric because it will force you to buy a new car. But the charging infrastructure is not ready and won’t be for decades. The international infrastructure already exists for mass rollout of sustainable, renewable fuels via regular fuel pumps. And it works in your engine like regular gas.
Indycar already uses Shell 100% renewable fuel. F1 has adopted the move more recently. If you want to keep proper engines, you’ve gotta quit getting your diapers twisted over the one thing that’s going to continue to allow them to run.
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@Out_of_Spec Sorry to hear that. Its not a fun time.
I lost my Sammy late last year. He'd be with me 15years (he was 21), through some very tough times and I miss him. Even though we have other dogs.
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@tomselliott Well, I guess they can buy up the Spirit assets at pennies on the dollar now...
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AG Merrick Garland, March 7, 2023: "Our complaint alleges that JetBlue’s proposed $3.8 billion acquisition of Spirit violate Section 7 of the Clayton Act. We allege that if allowed to proceed this merger will limit choices and drive up ticket prices for passengers across the country.
"And we further allege that the impact of this merger will be particularly harmful for travelers who rely on what are known as ultra low cost carriers in order to fly. Those include working & middle-class Americans who traveled for personal as opposed to business reasons & who must pay their own way. By acquiring Spirit JetBlue will eliminate the largest ultra low cost carrier in the United States.”
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@F1 Way to go F1, penalize a guy who had damage to his car, lost two places, legitimately, to the following cars, but managed to get across the line. Nuts, absolutely nuts. People are complaining about the new regs, but this takes the biscuit.
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@SawyerMerritt Selecting an appropriate parking spot at the destination
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@scottsantens You own shares in Coca Cola, Frito Lay and Kellogg? Thats the only way giving cash makes sense.
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Allowing SNAP recipients to buy rotisserie chickens is like the smallest possible improvement. This reads like an Onion article. It's helpful, sure, but this nonsense of determining what food is allowed and what isn't should stop. People should get CASH.
thehill.com/homenews/senat…
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@itskyleconner Why? its gotta make you car sick almost instantly
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Hello! @DrewPeterson159 and I are stealing a @NIOGlobal ET9 for a bit
Thanks NIO for hooking it up. This thing is baller

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@GerberKawasaki Merger vs buyout is semantics. But, yes, they'll all be one entity. I suspect the spend on Optimus is a drag on Tesla financials (plus the anti-EV crowd gaining traction).
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@dhh I suspect the difference is not the Processor efficiency but the display. The display on the Mac is quite a lot better display, its almost 50% higher resolution and twice as bright. Thats where the power is going.
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@gnoble79 Oh look, another bitter Tesla short. Maybe this guy should try building something thats never been done before... Is it sad that HW3 just can't do it, yes, but it's a hard limit, those vehicles need an FSD H/W upgrade. What are you gonna do? 🤷♂️
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Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.
Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:
Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD."
He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation.
Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done.
BUT IT DIDN'T
Those promises are now officially broken.
The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4.
Not a refund or a free upgrade...
A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla.
Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS.
But that's not even the worst part.
Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety.
What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe.
How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake.
Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating:
Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right?
WRONG
Dig into the actual filing:
The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs."
They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation.
GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap.
Let me put that in perspective:
3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings.
All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet...
3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year.
So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion.
The math doesn't work.
They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares.
The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time:
Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again).
They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought.
Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year.
Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline.
And here's what really kills the bull case...
The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it:
Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation.
That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion.
And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment.
Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15.
Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not.
The stock is $387.
So what exactly are you paying for?
You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone.
I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981.
And I am telling you:
Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career.
THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC
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@itskyleconner The truck or the SUV? and why is it a loser? 🤷♂️
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@wholemars You're making mountains out of molehills. The worst part of the process is all your apps downloading to the new phone and having to sign-in to all the apps again.
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@Farzin21 If it ends up anything like that, it'll be spectacular. BUT. They have to sink the field down into the space. How are they going to do that in 3yrs? I still don't get how any number of fans are going to get there if there's an event at T-Mobile. Also, NO tailgating at all.
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@JaredKollerKC The upside of Union Station proximity is going to be awesome.
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I really think the #Royals moving next to Union Station is a home run. Of course there’ll be downsides, it won’t be universally loved, but I’m excited to give it a shot.
- Already established nearby gathering spots at Union Station, Crown Center, Liberty Memorial hill.
- 6 modes of transportation to get to games, all but one will be easier than current location.
- Could have local Amtrak train routes come from across the metro to provide alternative transit.
- Provides reason for more investment in number of streetcars, Amtrak train routes, and potentially nearby roads/I-35.
- Visually cool area/backdrop: Western Auto sign, skyline, train tracks, surrounding fountains
- Activities for all ages already in nearby area: Crown Center inside/terrace, Legoland, Sea Life, ice skating, ferris wheel, Penn Valley park, Liberty Memorial, Union Station, Science City, planetarium, theaters, access to P&L district/T-Mobile center.
- Much more accessible to greater number of fans in more central location, so more likely to draw in casual fans.
- Allows for more investment in key city venues like Crown Center/Union Station, without needing to build from scratch.
- 20k parking spots within a 10-minute walk of the stadium, including established garages for Crown Center/Union Station, and lots of drop off areas.
- Quick access to hotels, restaurants, bars and crossroads district just across the tracks. Appeals to out of town visitors and adds pre/postgame options for locals.
- Plus any development/additions the team/city/state will make to improve the area and its amenities. (Obviously not official designs pictured)




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@fox4kc The City should fix the bloody storm drains! Seriously? stay off the roads because it’s raining? WTF
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WATCH: Flash flooding in Kansas City has left motorist stranded in high waters Friday evening. The City is asking that you stay off of the roadways.
fox4kc.com/news/live-upda…
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