Piv○t

FYI I have a very strong personality, and I am highly opinionated Highly passionate behind my opinions and convictions The way I may write on here sometimes may come off as matter of fact You don't have to listen, and I can be wrong from time to time I am just a frok on the internet

@0xbidibidibum I didnt say anything is different And last night was one individual selling in the final 20 mins of the session

@Pivot922 asia session yesterday nuked further despite what you mentioned about flows the preceding days. why do you feel this time is different on a friday?

I aint touchin nothing till I see an Asia session

Top is in on commodities

@doppel_ichi Oh come on man, we are not all liberal baboons In fact we also hate them, maybe more than other states do since they are ruining our home

@SenSanders Who gave u such an idea to do this lmaooo They need to be fired, as do you

I spoke to Anthropic’s AI agent Claude about AI collecting massive amounts of personal data and how that information is being used to violate our privacy rights. What an AI agent says about the dangers of AI is shocking and should wake us up.

@_10delta_ Starmer first IMO

Trump is getting a lot of valuable intel on who is truly on his side both on the global & domestic level. As Machiavelli said, adversity is the only reliable test of allegiance, because in peacetime every prince has abundant allies. Trump may not have started this war for this purpose, but 3 weeks in, every player's hand is now face-up on the table. Expect retribution after this.

3 day candles look crazy

@ZeMirch @plur_daddy Judging from the tl and gc past week or so We have already hit insanity

@plur_daddy we are all at the brink of insanity

Equity bears are at the brink of insanity given resilience in the indices, but odds of a breakdown are increasing now. Equities top slowly as passive flows and rotational dynamics can hold up indices for a long time. There are many structural forces rigged to push them higher, and thus it takes a lot to make them go down. Over the course of an equity bull market, buy-the-dip behavior continually gets reinforced, and the majority of capital will be controlled by adherents to this mantra. In theory, the longer prices remain coiled, the larger the move once they exit the range. This nuke in gold suggests there are liquidity issues brewing under the surface. It feels like a preview of what is going to happen to crowded trades. My theory is the Middle East is selling gold to shore up capital, as they have lost their revenue, and have many expenses around defence. They will also need to rebuild lost energy infra, and eventually, new pipelines to reroute around Hormuz. The buyback window is starting to close, and the sugar rush of higher-than-usual tax refunds is starting to fade. Retail has been a key marginal buyer of equities in these past weeks, and the fading of the tax refund tailwind is critical. The market is gradually coming to terms with the fact that this conflict may last for a long time. On a conventional level, the US and Israel have completely dominated Iran, but Iran has an asymmetric edge when it comes to controlling world oil prices through Hormuz. Trump can still end it, but the issue is that the US cannot simply leave, a ceasefire with Iran must be struck in order to guarantee that Hormuz is reopened. In order to strike a ceasefire, Iran wants to see a guarantee that the US and Israel won't attack them again (at a bare minimum), and it will be difficult for the US to get Israel to agree to that. Trump is used to being able to quickly maneuver according to his whims, as he did with tariffs, but the complex interlocking physical realities of war are different. Oil shocks often contribute to the end of bull markets, since they constrain consumer spending, hit manufacturing, and lower the ability of central banks to offer support. Indeed, the Fed came out slightly hawkish yesterday, and Powell also hinted that he may stay in his Governor seat post his role as Chair ending, which would constrain Trump's plans to unleash liquidity. We have a stronger dollar and long duration bond yields are going up over the world, which tightens liquidity. The Middle East is tight on money now and they were the marginal bidder in many assets. In particular, they were a key funder for AI capex through their investments in the frontier labs. They've been 40-50% of recent big rounds. Remember other deep pockets like Softbank are close to being tapped out. Any dollar that goes into these rounds will have to come out of something else, like liquid stocks (look at my pinned post for this broader thesis). And if we have any signs of risk to AI capex expectations, this will be a major shift that the market needs to contemplate. I've said this before, but puts are a difficult way to express bearish equity views because timing is so uncertain. Equities can hold on for a long time, because they are structurally rigged to go higher. Easier expressions are simply being in cash, or gradually shorting cash stocks over time, which helps avoid getting chopped. This is a very difficult market, stay safe out there.

There was no way I was going to hold this long overnight Rather be on defense

I am all out of $SOL It was a decent run for such a trash environment Will check back in tomorrow to see if any interest But that may have been it, especially since BTC lost my level

I am long $SOL Lets see if we got juice for 100

@52kskew Deff a singular seller

$BTC Spot driven sell off here with shorts opening into price probably singular seller doing this

They indeed had more coins

@0xbidibidibum Judging from the flow from them the past 2 days, and now zero interest in shorting, I think no

@Pivot922 what do you think?

The question is, does Asia have more coins to sell

@based16z LMAO The collective hive mind has rotated bear over the past week or so TBF this weekend is the end of the runway imo Coin flip

@Pivot922 Based on this engagement man idk what to think lmao

Seems like the first day ppl starting to admit it’s over

Both CME gaps filled

As long as my quant number holds The answer is up IMO $BTC

5 day candles close today bros