Dr. T

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Dr. T

Dr. T

@Plastics_DocT

Perfection achieved through imperfection

NYC Katılım Ekim 2017
685 Takip Edilen295 Takipçiler
Simon Dixon
Simon Dixon@SimonDixonTwitt·
🌮 Trump says the US is in “serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran.” Trump also says that if a deal is not made, the US will “blow up and completely obliterate all of their electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly all desalinization plants.”
Simon Dixon tweet media
Simon Dixon@SimonDixonTwitt

Escalate to de-escalate. If it was a real ground invasion it would need at least 600k troops. A deal has to be done. It’s taking longer than I thought as IRGC factions are resisting. This maybe the final act Hollywood movie. That means more will die sadly. My prediction is this needs to be done before Trump & Xi meet. Let’s see.

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Dr. T
Dr. T@Plastics_DocT·
@SimonDixonTwitt @MorganC000 Hi Simon! For those of us interested, could you recommend a high fidelity English translation of the Quran that you alluded to in your latest Peter McCormack interview please? It would be much appreciated
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Morgan
Morgan@MorganC000·
Aside from his obviously brilliant insight and razor-sharp analysis, @SimonDixonTwitt has an incredible ability to remain patient, quiet, and impeccably polite even when completely surrounded by absolute morons.
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Dr. T
Dr. T@Plastics_DocT·
@ZynxBTC You called it from the beginning regarding the Silver trade.
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Zynx
Zynx@ZynxBTC·
This man was telling everyone to buy Silver at $120. It is now at $67. Whoever listened to Peter is going to be underwater for years to come. Look at the hubris in this post.
Peter Schiff@PeterSchiff

Today is the beginning of the end of $MSTR. Saylor was forced to sell stock not to buy Bitcoin, but to buy U.S. dollars merely to fund MSTR's interest and dividend obligations. The stock is broken. The business model is a fraud, and @Saylor is the biggest con man on Wall Street.

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Dr. T
Dr. T@Plastics_DocT·
@AnonLaserEyes @btc_overflow SATA lost out because STRC has the first comer advantage. The Strive also suffers from management issues. They are no MSTR. In reality, each national market will not have more than one successful TC company.
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Anon LaserEyes
Anon LaserEyes@AnonLaserEyes·
That’s not true. At worse it will perform like a bitcoin ETF with moments of positive mNAV during exuberance. It will still have access to traditional leverage. There’s still value in the stock and at a 1.0mNAV, it’s already as low as it’s reasonably going to fall. Let’s be real, out of all of the TCs out there, there are only TWO with preferreds and SATA isn’t even working properly yet.
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Brian Brookshire
Brian Brookshire@btc_overflow·
Metaplanet published a great detailed breakdown of their recent raise and warrant issue. Let's take a deeper look. What stands out to me is not so much the top line figures, but what deal structure and guidance revisions suggest about the current fundraising environment and adaptations to it. Firstly, it should come as no surprise that with a bitcoin bear market in full swing, it is currently a much more challenging environment to raise capital in. We see this directly reflected in both deal structure and MSW guidance. 1) Embracing volatility traders. Prior messaging had been that Metaplanet wished to pursue long only investors and avoid convertible bonds, in part due to the deleterious effects on share price of convert short hedging. Nonetheless, the equity + warrant deal is a pseudo-CB structure designed for volatility traders. The dip subsequent to deal announcement suggests short hedges being placed. However, unlike convertible bonds, the equity + warrants structure introduces no new debt, maturity risk, or senior claims to Metaplanet's bitcoin. This keeps the balance sheet pristine for preferred share issuance. In effect, this raise represents something of a compromise in order to increase the bitcoin collateral base in advance of preferred share listings. And, for a reality check on current market conditions, bitcoin treasuries looking to raise capital now are likely limited to volatility traders as potential institutional investors. 2) Deal pricing is lower than might be expected. Equity + warrants provide far less downside protection than a convertible bond with guaranteed return of principal. So naturally, the pricing would be expected to be lower than a convertible bond. The weighted average across pricing is roughly equivalent to issuing a convertible bond at a 9% premium. As some noted, the warrants were priced at a significant discount to Black-Scholes pricing. However, institutional deals are never priced at full IV. Strategy's convertible bonds, for instance, were typically priced at 50%+ discounts to implied volatility. Even so, and bear market conditions notwithstanding, I can't help but feel warrant pricing could have been higher. Management's own statements indicate the deal was priced favorably as part of relationship maintenance with investors who are under water on prior institutional raises. Which makes sense to a point, but under water retail investors unable to avail themselves of the same deal understandably have some misgivings. 3) Revised mNAV guidance. The target range of 3x-7x mNAV for MSW exercise has been phased out in favor of a >1x mNAV mandate. Which is formally codified into the MSWs with a requirement to only be exercised when share price exceeds 1.01x mNAV. This represents a significant downward revision, but also requires a reality check for current market conditions. At time of writing, Metaplanet stock trades at ~1x mNAV and is unlikely to trade at higher multiples until bitcoin re-enters a bull market. If you want Metaplanet to raise at 3x-7x mNAV here, it's simply not happening. It's not a management issue, it's a time point in the bitcoin cycle issue. As it stands, I think it is to Metaplanet's benefit to continue increasing the size of its balance sheet even if at 1x mNAV (i.e., net accretion is zero) for two reasons: 1) The total amount of capital needed to be raised to increase bitcoin holdings is significantly lower at current bitcoin prices. 2) A larger bitcoin collateral base paves the way for increased preferred share issuance. When preferred shares become the main strategy, common stock issuance has to be viewed as one leg of the pref trade. This is exactly the same thing I have been saying about Strategy. Of course, the larger question is, "When are preferred share listings coming?" Metaplanet has already issued shares of Mercury via private allotment, but it is really the public listing of MARS (Metaplanet's equivalent of $STRC) that is key. Public listing allows for proper price discovery and broader participation through increased liquidity and public access. A listing any time in 2026 would likely enable Metaplanet to fund bitcoin at very attractive prices. In sum, I am not going to say that Metaplanet's raise was a slam dunk, because it is not. But I do see the rationale for Metaplanet continuing to expand its bitcoin collateral base in the context of broader strategy, and shareholders need to have a much more sober view of what fundraising terms are possible under bitcoin bear market conditions. It's a buyer's market. That said, it's worth noting that Metaplanet is one of only a handful of BTCTCs that has been able to raise any capital at all in the past 6 months. This will change when bitcoin re-enters a bull market. But this is where are right now. English version of Metaplanet's presentation here: t.co/YTNrxsM06s
Metaplanet Inc.@Metaplanet

第三者割当増資等に関する補足説明資料 contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/3350…

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Dr. T
Dr. T@Plastics_DocT·
If you are bearish on Preferreds and feel that they won't happen, you should 100% sell all your shares. This stock is done without the Preferreds and mNAV will crash to <0.5-0.7. You are way better to hold BTC itself. There is literally zero reason to hold Metaplanet over BTC without public Preferreds.
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Anon LaserEyes
Anon LaserEyes@AnonLaserEyes·
I've mentally written off Metaplanet as a Bitcoin ETF with the optionality of upside. I haven't sold any nor do I plan to but the super reflexivity flywheel hinges on digital credit. I do wish they'd take some actual debt leverage up to 30% or so and just pay it off with the preferreds, if they eventually come. Sitting at the bottom of a bear un-levered is 🫤
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Simon Gerovich
Simon Gerovich@gerovich·
Metaplanet has issued 100 million Moving Strike Warrants with a first-of-its-kind mNAV clause. Exercise is only permitted when the stock trades above 1.01x mNAV, ensuring every share issued increases shareholder value. This enables the company to raise an estimated $234M in additional capital to buy BTC, unlocked only when it's accretive to BTC per share. $MPJPY
Simon Gerovich tweet media
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Dr. T
Dr. T@Plastics_DocT·
@zhao_dashuai The bottom graphics are terrible. Needs DLSS 5
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Satosophy
Satosophy@Satosophy·
@DylanLeClair @MuchasGrac52924 @OPENDIME @Metaplanet You guys are failing to launch the preferreds while we are in a bear market AND on top of that you are giving away bitcoin after a huge drawdown of the stock price?? Selling some shares to buy another treasury today, that's for sure.
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Dr. T
Dr. T@Plastics_DocT·
@ZynxBTC Let’s hope you’re right and the Preferreds haven’t bit been rejected and/or won’t be delayed 3 years
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Zynx
Zynx@ZynxBTC·
@Plastics_DocT The Preferreds are under review, I believe they can't really comment on timelines. It's clearly in the crosshairs though.
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Zynx
Zynx@ZynxBTC·
Reading this makes you appreciate the Preferreds a lot more. Metaplanet were stuck between a rock and a hard place in my opinion. Action in a bear market but with suboptimal leverage or inaction when the market is offering cheap Bitcoin. I prefer the former and I'm happy with the raise. I can see why some don't like it though. Could the fixed-strike warrants have a much higher premium than 10%? Maybe. Was that possible given market conditions? Probably not. Are the investors getting an amazing deal? Absolutely. Will they hedge their bets and act as a drag on the common stock? Yes. But for me, it's about delaying gratification. I'm a long-term investor. This will be worth it when the Preferreds come. This entire thing hinges on the Preferreds. I can accept suboptimal leverage now when I know it's being used to make the optimal form of leverage more attractive down the line. More Bitcoin on the balance sheet makes the Metaplanet Preferreds more attractive. It's that simple. I am betting on the company becoming the dominant issuer of Bitcoin backed fixed income products in Japan. That's the only reason why I am a shareholder. If you do not believe in that eventuality, you should probably sell your shares. Much better alternatives for your capital.
Simon Gerovich@gerovich

Breaking down our latest raise. Our single KPI is Bitcoin per share. Every capital decision we make gets measured against that. After our last institutional offering, we heard from shareholders that they wanted us to think differently about how we raise capital. The demand was still clear: more Bitcoin. So here's what we did. Japanese PIPEs typically price at a ~10% discount to market. We sold shares at a 2% premium to market and packaged our equity vol into fixed-strike warrants at a 10% premium. The company gets immediate capital to grow the Bitcoin balance sheet. If the stock goes higher and warrants are exercised, we receive additional capital at a price above today's market. The investors get to express a view on volatility. This isn't zero-sum. Both sides can win. This is the same playbook MSTR pioneered with convertible bonds. A 0% coupon convert was a bond and an embedded call option packaged into one security. The coupon was zero because the embedded option on a levered BTC vehicle was so valuable it replaced the coupon entirely. The bondholder wasn't lending for free. They were paying for vol. Saylor understood this before anyone else in BTC and it unlocked a new paradigm for Bitcoin treasury capital formation. Same principle, different wrapper. We used stock plus warrants instead of converts, so there's no debt, no maturity risk, no overhang, no ongoing dividend or interest payments. The capital structure stays clean with no debt sitting above equity holders, and that's by design. When we issue preferred shares, the balance sheet underneath needs to be pristine. Every Bitcoin we add strengthens that foundation. The bigger the base, the more credible the credit. We are intentionally building this to become the dominant issuer of Bitcoin backed fixed income instruments in Japan. And finally, we run one of the most active BTC derivatives books in the world. Every scenario here has been stress tested and is being managed, including the tail risk on future warrant exercise. We built this company around Bitcoin volatility and BTC Yield. This is what we do. This is permanent capital with no ongoing cost. The proceeds go to Bitcoin. ~$255M now. Up to ~$531M on exercise. March toward 210,000 BTC continues.

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Dr. T
Dr. T@Plastics_DocT·
@gerovich @DylanLeClair This answers and addresses all my questions. Thank you Simon (and Dylan).
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Simon Gerovich
Simon Gerovich@gerovich·
Breaking down our latest raise. Our single KPI is Bitcoin per share. Every capital decision we make gets measured against that. After our last institutional offering, we heard from shareholders that they wanted us to think differently about how we raise capital. The demand was still clear: more Bitcoin. So here's what we did. Japanese PIPEs typically price at a ~10% discount to market. We sold shares at a 2% premium to market and packaged our equity vol into fixed-strike warrants at a 10% premium. The company gets immediate capital to grow the Bitcoin balance sheet. If the stock goes higher and warrants are exercised, we receive additional capital at a price above today's market. The investors get to express a view on volatility. This isn't zero-sum. Both sides can win. This is the same playbook MSTR pioneered with convertible bonds. A 0% coupon convert was a bond and an embedded call option packaged into one security. The coupon was zero because the embedded option on a levered BTC vehicle was so valuable it replaced the coupon entirely. The bondholder wasn't lending for free. They were paying for vol. Saylor understood this before anyone else in BTC and it unlocked a new paradigm for Bitcoin treasury capital formation. Same principle, different wrapper. We used stock plus warrants instead of converts, so there's no debt, no maturity risk, no overhang, no ongoing dividend or interest payments. The capital structure stays clean with no debt sitting above equity holders, and that's by design. When we issue preferred shares, the balance sheet underneath needs to be pristine. Every Bitcoin we add strengthens that foundation. The bigger the base, the more credible the credit. We are intentionally building this to become the dominant issuer of Bitcoin backed fixed income instruments in Japan. And finally, we run one of the most active BTC derivatives books in the world. Every scenario here has been stress tested and is being managed, including the tail risk on future warrant exercise. We built this company around Bitcoin volatility and BTC Yield. This is what we do. This is permanent capital with no ongoing cost. The proceeds go to Bitcoin. ~$255M now. Up to ~$531M on exercise. March toward 210,000 BTC continues.
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
I have some thoughts on the Metaplanet raise + shareholder response: These retail Metaplanet holders scream for capital raises only at sky-high premiums (3x+ mNAV during BTC euphoria phases), yet when Bitcoin corrects 45-50% - precisely the window where the company must opportunistically issue equity to keep stacking sats.... ...they pivot to pearl-clutching over "terrible terms." The March 16 private placement ($255M at a mere 2% premium + warrants for another ~$276M, total ~$531M war chest) triggered the outrage precisely because it arrived amid the drawdown. They refuse to wait through the cycle for the next premium-rich window, but demand the company magically time raises to avoid any dilution pain. That's wanting to eat the flywheel's upside without swallowing a single rotation of its downside. This is the same cognitive trap that plagued Strategy critics for years. Saylor was relentlessly roasted for "buying every top" and refusing to chase dips aggressively, because the old toolkit (straight equity, convertibles) forced raises when markets were open, not when BTC was cheapest. The result was consistent accumulation, but never the hyper-aggressive dip-scooping people claimed they wanted. Only literally two weeks ago, with the scaling of STRC did Strategy finally gain the structural flexibility to hammer dips harder. That tool didn't exist before and the flywheel was always volatile by design. Capital raising terms will suck during corrections (more shares issued per BTC bought) and they will become god-tier during rallies (leverage on the balance sheet explodes the mNAV premium, compounding BTC-per-share at rates no static holder can match). Exactly the same dynamic is playing out at Metaplanet. Issuing equity at a 1% premium to buy Bitcoin right now is logically optimal even if the terms feel "sucky" on paper, because Bitcoin at deep correction prices is still profoundly undervalued on a multi-year view, and sitting on cash earns you nothing while the window closes. The alternative (waiting forever for 3x premiums) means you raise less overall, buy fewer sats during the very periods when forward returns are highest, and let the balance sheet atrophy. I commend ACTION during this dip over paralysis. Conversely, when BTC rips and the stock premium expands, the same leverage that felt punitive on the way down becomes rocket fuel. Each new dollar of capital buys BTC that then drives mNAV higher, attracting more capital at better terms, ad infinitum. That's the entire flywheel. It is definitionally volatile. Premiums compress in corrections (terms suck) and expand in expansions (terms print). Shareholders who demand raises exclusively at peak premiums while refusing to endure the -45% phases are essentially asking management to violate the cycle itself - to raise only in the green and hide during the red. That's not how compounding BTC exposure works. It's how you stay small and irrelevant. The math is merciless. If you only ever raise at "excellent terms," you never scale through full cycles. If you complain every time terms are merely "logical" (1% premium equity for BTC when the alternative is zero BTC), you reveal you never understood the strategy in the first place. Saylor's pre-STRC era proved the point. Metaplanet's current raise is proving it again. The patient capital that accepts the full volatility arc wins on net BTC-per-share growth. The rest are shareholders who never wanted to be flywheel participants - they were tourists who mistook a leveraged BTC accumulator for a stablecoin ETF. End of story. This is just proof that a lot of people cannot handle the VOLATILITY SUPER DRAGON that is Metaplanet. If you can't comfortably hold it for at least a year, you probably can't hold it for 4 years. Either diamond-hand the rotations or step off the ride. The engine doesn't negotiate with feelings.
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Dr. T
Dr. T@Plastics_DocT·
@ya35122968 Agree. Let’s see what happens. A short reply from Dylan to my post would go a long way.
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増田
増田@ya35122968·
@Plastics_DocT They're looking at shareholder posts, so I think it'll naturally catch their eye. It's a matter of interest to many shareholders, after all.
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増田
増田@ya35122968·
◾️MSワラント mNAVのプレミアムを活かして資金調達。一株あたりのBTCは増えるし、調達ボリュームは1番大きく、BTC絶対量を増やせる ◾️優先株 現時点のBTC保有総数を元にした資金調達。希薄化0あるいは最小限の希薄化でBTCを増やせる。BTC保有総数が資金調達に影響するので、MSワラントの補助的役割
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Dr. T
Dr. T@Plastics_DocT·
@ya35122968 100% I understand this and agree with you. However, we need to make sure the executive team including Dylan and Simon are still on the same page as the shareholders and our interest are aligned
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増田
増田@ya35122968·
@Plastics_DocT The company is interested in STRC, and considers MARS and MERCURY to be important themes as well. The Japanese bond market is not as mature as the US market, so it may take time to develop it.
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Ragnar
Ragnar@RoaringRagnar·
@Plastics_DocT We‘re in a BTCTC bear market since basically July 2025. Check your premises.
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Ragnar
Ragnar@RoaringRagnar·
It‘s incredible how many people are shitting on Metaplanet right now. Look, I get it, we‘re down >80% from the ATH. The Japanese market is a bit shaky in general, macro wise. It‘s not clear yet that Metaplanet‘s prefs will be approved, and if so, when. Also, the market and their ¥637 MSW program has backed them into a corner for the past 6 months or so. People are giving up left and right, showing signs of PTSD. In fact, the current sentiment feels very bottom-ish. Max pain, capitulation. If prefs are not approved, that would be a huge blow, of course. But it wouldn‘t be the end. Management has demonstrated a willingness to use any tool at their disposal to raise more capital and increase Bitcoin per share. Remember that 1 year ago, Metaplanet held ~3,200 BTC. Today, they hold 35,102 BTC. 10x in 12 months. Soon, it will be >40,000 BTC, and until the end of the year their goal is to reach 100,000 BTC. I believe they have a good chance to achieve this goal. They also have the chance to completely own the Japanese market. Become Japan‘s Strategy, and even beyond, as they will become a key player of the Japanese Bitcoin ecosystem. Once Bitcoin is at 200K, all this negative sentiment will be long forgotten. Bookmark it.
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le chiffre
le chiffre@jeanwell19·
i was referring to "MSTR price action has responded exactly as expected. Metaplanet has not", but i dont see this in the PA. if we look at other metrics yes, mstr works well compared to metaplanet that doenst work at all, but you mentioned price action and they have performed equally imo
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