It’s easy to forget what makes a good dynasty trade target.
Usually it’s either:
1. Better fantasy production than the market price suggests.
or
2. A realistic path to gaining value without needing a perfect outcome.
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Paul Brenton
644 posts
Paul Brenton
@PointsOverHype
| FantasyPros NFL Expert | 18-Time FFPC Dynasty Winner | No hype. No mandates | Proven data. Better decisions
New York, NY Katılım Şubat 2025
174 Takip Edilen240 Takipçiler
Good dynasty managers are usually asking:
“If I’m right, how big is the payoff? If I’m wrong, how survivable is the damage?”
Applies to trades and startups.
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Every offseason there are players whose value starts reflecting their best fantasy stretch instead of their full fantasy profile.
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Tucker Kraft is already being priced like an elite fantasy tight end despite not consistently producing like one.
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Week 13 gives us Jahmyr Gibbs vs Bijan Robinson.
The RB2 and RB3 in PPR fantasy points per game among all running backs since 2011.
Gibbs: 19.83 PPG
Bijan: 18.80 PPG
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In a sample of FFPC dynasty championship teams from 2025, 88.5% made at least one trade during the season.
Most winning teams are willing to act when opportunities appear.
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@itsdana_dane @P2WFantasy Good move. Use the market, Rome performs way below his market value. Take the additional 8 points per game that JJets will give you over Rome.
Since 2021 in PPR - JJets: WR3, 18.21 PPG. Rome: WR 60, 10.03 PPG
x.com/PointsOverHype…
Paul Brenton@PointsOverHype
Rome Odunze. Excuses are protecting the value more than the production is earning it. Tier down in perception. Tier up in production.
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@P2WFantasy I just tiered up to Jettas. Giving up Rome was tough bc im a believer but I gott shoot for the ceiling
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@GBERGFF He might.
But both the dynasty and redraft price are already getting very close to pricing in that ceiling outcome when his actual fantasy production is nowhere near it yet.
x.com/PointsOverHype…
Paul Brenton@PointsOverHype
Rome Odunze. Excuses are protecting the value more than the production is earning it. Tier down in perception. Tier up in production.
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I’m going to keep screaming this all offseason…
Luther Burden has Top 15 upside as a WR in Fantasy Football.
But Rome Odunze is the one with Top 5 upside. 👑
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Moved down in market value.
Moved up in fantasy points.
Tee Higgins: 14.66 PPG since 2021 (WR14)
Nico Collins: 13.30 PPG since 2021 (WR25)
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@FFPC RB7?
Do people not like elite fantasy points anymore?
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De'Von Achane ADP in the FFPC Best Ball Tournament:
🐬 RB7
🐬 2.02
Now with a $400,000 grand prize, the best ball draft rooms are calling your name this fantasy season at myffpc.com/BestBallTourna….
Paul Brenton@PointsOverHype
De’Von Achane has averaged 18.49 PPG in his NFL career. That ranks 5th amongst all RBs since 2021. People talk about “undersized” but the fantasy points have always been there.
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Some of the easiest dynasty trades happen when you move slightly down in market value while improving your weekly scoring.
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Achane is still only 24 years old.
His fantasy production is already elite. He outproduces Ashton Jeanty by 4.07 PPG. Love is still unproven in the NFL.
Managers are paying for hope and hype over proven fantasy points.
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De’Von Achane has averaged 18.49 PPG in his NFL career.
That ranks 5th amongst all RBs since 2021.
People talk about “undersized” but the fantasy points have always been there.
Jordan Schultz@Schultz_Report
BREAKING: The #Dolphins and Pro Bowl RB De'Von Achane have agreed to a 4-year extension worth $68M, making him the NFL’s 3rd-highest-paid RB at $17M per year with $32M guaranteed, per multiple sources. The APY and guarantees are the most ever for RBs coming off rookie contracts in a deal negotiated by @Leah_Knight of @RocNationSports.
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A lot of dynasty managers are better at building roster value than building lineups that actually score points.
They are not always the same thing.
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Rome Odunze.
Excuses are protecting the value more than the production is earning it.
Tier down in perception.
Tier up in production.
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@FelixTheOracle He is great value in all formats right now. One of the easier QBs to trade for in dynasty leagues. It should stay that way as well, at least for as long as talk continues of a camp competition. I don’t care if he is or isn’t a good real life QB, he produces for fantasy.
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@EPB1983Dynasty Kyler is the one that jumps off the page — QB18 pricing for a QB7 PPG profile is the kind of window that disappears before the market feels comfortable.
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Some dynasty prices are wildly disconnected from actual fantasy production right now.
Comparing 2021-2025 PPG versus current cost can identify:
- Market overreactions
- Production discounts
- Trade opportunities
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@FelixTheOracle @FantasyPros That’s exactly right. Patience is going to be important. The problem is people are impatient at tight end nowadays because of a few instant succeses in LaPorta, Bowers & Loveland.
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@EPB1983Dynasty @FantasyPros Yep, that’s the hook — cheap TEs need a believable target path, and New England gives Raridon that without needing a clean Year 1 breakout.
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@TheProphecyFF @FantasyPros Absolutely !! If he can stay on the field, he is hitting a lot of boxes.
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@FelixTheOracle @FantasyPros Agreed!! I wrote about him in that article. Being discounted because of his injury history and lack of consistency but he has a lot about his game to like and importantly, a clear path to targets. NE targets tight ends at a decent rate too.
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@FantasyPros Eli Raridon is my cheap one — pick 95 plus New England’s TE-volume path is enough runway for a bench stash.
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