Robert J Salvador@RobertJSalvador
The more data I look at the more I think Ed Gallrein will defeat Thomas Massie when the final results are in.
My opinion is based on:
- Polling averages that have swung to Gallrein.
- Prediction Markets too; last minute moves can be an insider signal.
- Small donor numbers: Massie wins big there but mathematically I don’t see enough in KY 4 to think that the turnout math is in his favor. His donors are national. If he has 40,000 supporters who would show up in KY 4, why did only 1000 donate from KY? Not enough.
- Election operations matter most. Trump has more than anyone and it all came to KY.
- Massie’s support online reminds me of the 2024 Iowa primary where DeSantis had a loud, dedicated, effective group of supporters that was formidable online and in person but the numbers weren’t enough to match Trump’s dependable voters at scale.
- Bill Cassidy loss is a data point about Trump’s current effectiveness with the primary base.
- Massie’s rhetoric in recent campaign texts and media is leaving a lot of room for “we might not win”; that may say something.
- If historical turnout of age groups remains true or in range here, it’s good for Gallrein and bad for Massie.
- The Tucker Carlson, Groyper, America First, Nick Fuentes, Candace Owens types are all in a downfall of public opinion and reach in the US. They are gathered around Massie and this race which could be signal.
- Trump’s election machine and voice is like nothing we’ve ever seen in politics, until something proves that wrong, it’s a strong data point.
It’s possible I’m wrong and Massie wins.
I’ll leave this post up if I am.
In that case, it will be because younger voters turned out and/or a Silent Majority existed of Pro Trump voters who still voted for Massie.
Prediction: Gallrein wins 52-48%
