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Dekos

@PolyDekos

@Polymarket researcher |

Katılım Mart 2023
317 Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler
Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
All the top traders in the weather markets - in one place Want to know who's actually making money off the weather forecasts on Polymarket? Previously, to find such traders: > Spending hours manually digging through profiles > Sifting through thousands of markets without a handy tool > Wondering whether it’s just luck or a real system Now - FREE ACCESS TO THE ANALYSIS from @PredictParity : predictparity.com/live-trades?co… - Filter: "Weather" category - Win rate > 50%, PNL > $10k - $100k - You get a list of people who consistently outperform the market Keep an eye on them. Study their patterns. Know when they're coming in. Commodity markets are one of the most underrated segments of Polymarket. Few competitors. Many inefficiencies. And a few traders who have already figured this out.
Alex@de1lymoon

Weather markets are quietly becoming one of the cleanest niche edges right now → coldmath $136,187 profit → automatedAItrading $88,481 profit → hondacivic $63,903 profit Weather markets have clear data sources, public forecasts, slow-moving consensus, and often very weird pricing gaps You need to ran a simple parity filter: - weather only - price 2¢–90¢ - only actively trading - $5k all-time PnL That’s exactly where niche traders can build an edge > one market category > repeatable setup > six-figure upside It’s the type of wins they’re finding: > Hong Kong 15°C +$15,144 → (ROI 40,511%) > Paris 19°C +$30,409 → (ROI 1,900%) > Wellington 16°C +$14,572 → (ROI 48,763%) But the real signal is not just the PnL

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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@rcom1337 Wow, I understand growth, I'll follow it.
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RCOM
RCOM@rcom1337·
A 1-day wallet turned $6,453 into $58,721 on BTC up/down markets. 3 bets, all won. - no history, no bio, no followers - placed 3 bets on BTC 5-min candles - $434 into $43,398 at 1¢ - $6,000 into $15,128 at 39.7¢ - $19 into $194 at 10¢ - bridged everything to bnb chain right after - funds sent straight to bitget - vanished classic hit and run, i will keep an eye on him in case of his returning. ghost: @0x676cdce125a5c668d2ffb09d4e10ec92eec89d6a-1779674003212?r=rcom" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0x676cdce125a
RCOM tweet mediaRCOM tweet media
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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@Bober_smart Estimate how much it will cost this year in collaboration with Polymarket
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Bober_smart
Bober_smart@Bober_smart·
Over 328,000 people became millionaires during FIFA 2022 In the US alone, the trading volume amounted to more than $1.8 billion While billions of football fans were cheering for Messi, a quiet group of systematic traders treated the World Cup like a hyper-liquid tech stock. They didn't guess scores-they knew the outcome in advance Here is how they did it, and why 2026 will be even bigger: It's all about the mathematical system of trading Value Trading Formula: EV = (P_model * Odds_market) - 1 Dynamic Portfolio Hedging Formula: PnL_total = Sum(Shares_i * Delta_Price_i) Kelly Criterion Fractional Formula: f = (EV / (Odds_market - 1)) * k Bayesian Inference Strategy Formula: P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A)) / P(B) Poisson Distribution Formula: P(x) = (lambda^x * e^-lambda) / x! At FIFA 2026, the winner will not be the one who guesses the score, but the one who holds the right tool in their hands The best trading terminal will soon be available to the public
DG3@DG3_terminal

x.com/i/article/2058…

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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@korenssss I love listening to people like that; maybe I'll learn something from it myself
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Korens
Korens@korenssss·
Larry Fink lost $100M in a single trade at First Boston in 1986 - then built the world’s largest asset manager from scratch Built Aladdin from scratch - now monitors $21T in assets daily, more than any government on Earth In this 30-min interview he reveals how that $100M loss became the foundation of everything In 1988, he co-founded BlackRock in a one-room office with seven partners and zero dollars in assets His main rule - “Never not know what we’re doing” That obsession with risk became Aladdin - now the world’s largest risk management platform, monitoring trillions in assets daily Bookmark - on Polymarket you don’t need $100M to learn risk management. The lesson is free ↓
Korens@korenssss

Rick Rieder manages $2.7T at BlackRock and was a finalist for US Federal Reserve Chair - here's his warning to every trader 20 years at Lehman Brothers. Fixed Income Hall of Fame 2013. Now CIO of Global Fixed Income at the world's largest asset manager In this 19-min interview he reveals the one rule that survived 2008, Lehman's collapse, and every crash since Markets go down 5x faster than they go up ⮕ You make money slowly ⮕ You lose it in days Be right 60-65% of the time, diversify like a casino, and always have an escape hatch before you open a position Never let one bad trade ruin your career Bookmark - burn rate hits Polymarket contracts the same way. The edge is in the exit, not the entry ↓

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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@shmidtqq The time and effort saved are obvious - there's no question about it
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Bober_smart
Bober_smart@Bober_smart·
@PolyDekos It's cool that you collected them all in one place, it's incredibly convenient, I added them to my bookmarks
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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@korenssss I completely agree with you on this
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Korens
Korens@korenssss·
@PolyDekos Commodity and weather markets are the most underrated
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0xEmoni
0xEmoni@0xEmoni·
Weekly Trump Cycle Most traders are confused... Even though I profited from the cycle on @Polymarket, I’m confused too...
0xEmoni tweet media
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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@0xEmoni It really saves a lot of effort when it comes to analysis
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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@ridark_eth It's scary to think what will become of this generation of students
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Ridark
Ridark@ridark_eth·
A 33-year-old Tsinghua + Carnegie Mellon researcher just turned a text box into an entire research firm. Kimi K2.6 Agent Swarm. 300 sub-agents. One brief. A folder of finished files by morning. In the clip, Moonshot AI founder Zhilin Yang shows how it actually works One run produced: a 100,000-word lit review, a 20,000-row dataset, 14 charts, and a full landing page bundle. In parallel. Merged. Packaged. You're not a prompter anymore. You're a project manager. Who built it? Google Brain. Author of Transformer-XL and XLNet. 22,000+ citations. Now CEO of the company behind Kimi. In 2025 you prompted. In 2026 you orchestrate.
shmidt@shmidtqq

x.com/i/article/2056…

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Crypto Mavka
Crypto Mavka@CryptoMavka·
@PolyDekos weather meta is unironically printing if you follow the right traders
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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@RuujSs I'll take a look at this; it certainly won't hurt
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Ruuj
Ruuj@RuujSs·
Bridgewater Associates published Ray Dalio's complete framework for understanding market cycles, risk parity, and how they size positions across asset classes. The full PDF is free on their website. Used internally by one of the largest hedge funds ever built.
Ruuj tweet media
Ruuj@RuujSs

x.com/i/article/2056…

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Ruuj@RuujSs·
@PolyDekos This is great, thanks for sharing it mate :)
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Dekos@PolyDekos·
@monokern That's right, it saves a lot of time
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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@shmidtqq they take their share while remaining unnoticed
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shmidt
shmidt@shmidtqq·
@PolyDekos commodity traders are quietly becoming the best on polymarket. way less noise than crypto
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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@nofadsec I'm happy to help - feel free to use it
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nofad
nofad@nofadsec·
@PolyDekos This is really very convenient, thank you.
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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@ridark_eth Or, everyone can customize it to their liking
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Ridark
Ridark@ridark_eth·
@PolyDekos Win rate > 80%, PNL > $20k - $200k
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Crypto Mavka
Crypto Mavka@CryptoMavka·
millions in volume are being printed on @Polymarket right now, but 99% of traders have no idea who’s actually running the show behind the scenes. every time a massive macro or inflation market settles, @PythNetwork oracles are the ones pulling the strings and verifying the data. and now, they’ve just opened the front door wide open for everyone. the pyth terminal is live, and it completely kills the old corporate finance model. here is what you actually get, explained simply: > 3,000+ live prices for everything from bitcoin to the price of your morning coffee and beef. > real-time charts updating tick-by-tick for free. > pure transparency you see the raw data before you pay a single dime. > no annoying "sales calls", no hidden contracts, and no gatekeeping. legacy platforms charge $25k a year for this. pyth gives you the exact same institutional data for free until you're ready to scale. if you're still trading on vibes without looking at the raw data, you're doing it wrong. are you trading macro markets blindly, or are you checking the charts first?
Crypto Mavka@CryptoMavka

Pretty soon we’ll be shorting our morning coffee and steak sandwiches. ☕️🥩 Not a joke. Commodity futures from the world's biggest exchanges (CME & ICE) are officially live onchain via @PythNetwork. Why this is going to absolutely break Polymarket: > Cocoa, coffee, sugar, and live cattle now available via a single API in real-time. > All major macro markets on @Polymarket are settled and resolved directly by Pyth oracles. > Growth is insane: the Pyth catalog has tripled since early 2025 (now 3,000+ feeds, from BTC to beef). > Instead of boring meme coins we are betting on real inflation, tariffs, and climate shocks. The price of everything is coming onchain, and it's unstoppable. I can already see the degen liquidations on live cattle. Which market are you betting on?

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Dekos
Dekos@PolyDekos·
@0xWast3 New features are always cool - you should definitely try them out
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