

Polyb
1.7K posts

@Polyb_sol
Automated arbitrage across prediction markets. 400ms execution on @Solana 12+ platforms. Runs 24/7. CEX AI Crypto Arbitrage ➜ https://t.co/MuJNtwlb0M




My friend got laid off from a hedge fund last November He was making $2.1M/year running their quant desk Instead of applying to another fund - he took their entire strategy framework and rebuilt it on Polymarket 1300$ → 187,564$ in 3 weeks Total cost: $200/month for Claude, $50/month VPS He said: "The models I built for the fund work better on Polymarket, because on Wall Street you compete against other quants. On Polymarket you compete against guys who bet based on Twitter polls" He rebuilt a 4-factor model in one weekend Same math his fund ran on $800M AUM: Momentum scoring: track 400+ markets, buy when a contract moves 10¢+ with rising volume Mean reversion: when a contract overshoots 15¢+ in under 2 hours - fade it Volatility regime detection: hidden Markov model classifies low-vol vs high-vol every hour. Switches strategy automatically Correlation breakdown: 200+ market pairs monitored. When two normally correlated contracts decorrelate - one is wrong. Trade the lagging one. All 4 run simultaneously COPY HIM: t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… Portfolio optimizer combines the scores Fractional Kelly sizing, max 5% per market, 15 concurrent positions His fund's flagship returned 19% last year on $800M His bot returned 144,000% in 3 weeks on $1300 He doesn't need to work anymore










My Polymarket weather bot made $40 on the first day of backtesting after fixing the bugs Right now it's still holding $35 in unrealized profit Given the maximum position size of $20 this is a solid result 1. Current positions: • Ankara 11°C: +$16.47 • London 12°C: +$11.19 • Shanghai 15°C: +$5.83 • Dallas 78°F: +$2.93 • Tel Aviv 17°C: +$1.03 • Buenos Aires 23°C: -$1.67 • Unrealized: +$35.78 • PnL: +$40 The bot was offline overnight which caused stops to trigger late and lost ~$20 in profit. Expecting better performance once it runs 24/7. 2. What was fixed: • entry price bug • stop-loss now works correctly • improved bucket search logic 3. What still needs work: I set the minimum market volume at $2,000 thinking that with $20 positions order book depth wouldn't matter. Turns out the actual exit price is sometimes slightly worse than what the bot calculates. Not critical for testing forecast accuracy but I'll fix it for a cleaner simulation. RT + Like + Bookmark if you want me to keep publishing open source updates Follow me for updates! GitHub: github.com/alteregoeth-ai…


We're excited to announce 'The Situation Room' by Polymarket is coming to Washington, D.C. The world's first bar dedicated to monitoring the situation. 🧵



🚨 JUST IN: The #CLARITY Act Being Signed Into Law In 2026 Climbs Back Up To A Chance Of 72% 📝
