Pontificate

🇦🇪🇮🇷 BREAKING: UAE air defenses are responding to a second missile threat tonight Iran already fired 4 loitering munitions at the UAE earlier today. 3 intercepted, one into the sea. Now another wave. The firing at a cargo vessel north of Dubai probably was the trigger

[ 🇮🇷 Iran - 🇺🇸 USA ] ■ US Senator Tim Kaine raised "serious constitutional concerns" that the Trump administration may exceed its 60-day limit for military action in Iran without congressional approval, citing the 1973 War Powers Act. ■ The 60-day deadline for congressional approval under the War Powers Act is set to expire on Friday. ■ Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested that a ceasefire with Iran grants the administration more time on this deadline, but Kaine expressed skepticism about this interpretation. ■ Kaine stated that he does not believe the statute supports extending the deadline through the ceasefire.

*HASSETT: OIL WILL FLOW LIKE NEVER BEFORE WHEN HORMUZ OPENS

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Think your morning coffee is getting expensive? Try insuring a ship in the Gulf of Oman right now. War risk premiums have skyrocketed over 1,000% since March, jumping from a rounding error to a staggering 5-10% of a ship’s entire value per trip. For a standard $300M tanker, that’s an extra $30M just for the “privilege” of cover in case it gets blown up. Carriers are tacking on ~$3,000 surcharges per container because dodging drones isn’t cheap. Here’s the part most people miss: this isn’t just insurance, it’s behavior change. Some operators are rerouting entirely, others are sailing less frequently, and a few are pricing the risk straight into contracts. That means longer routes, tighter capacity, and delayed deliveries before goods even hit ports. Energy markets feel it first, but it doesn’t stay there. Higher shipping costs bleed into food, fertilizer, retail, and manufacturing… anything that moves by sea. Add longer transit times and inventory strain, and the pressure compounds across supply chains. It’s the ultimate hidden tax on global trade, not legislated, no vote, and unavoidable. And at the end of the chain, it doesn’t stay in the Gulf: It shows up at the checkout counter.