Maku Akira

That's a great sum up.

Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability. The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is a group of reactions laughing at various quirks of the models, hallucinations, etc. Yes I also saw the viral videos of OpenAI's Advanced Voice mode fumbling simple queries like "should I drive or walk to the carwash". The thing is that these free and old/deprecated models don't reflect the capability in the latest round of state of the art agentic models of this year, especially OpenAI Codex and Claude Code. But that brings me to the second issue. Even if people paid $200/month to use the state of the art models, a lot of the capabilities are relatively "peaky" in highly technical areas. Typical queries around search, writing, advice, etc. are *not* the domain that has made the most noticeable and dramatic strides in capability. Partly, this is due to the technical details of reinforcement learning and its use of verifiable rewards. But partly, it's also because these use cases are not sufficiently prioritized by the companies in their hillclimbing because they don't lead to as much $$$ value. The goldmines are elsewhere, and the focus comes along. So that brings me to the second group of people, who *both* 1) pay for and use the state of the art frontier agentic models (OpenAI Codex / Claude Code) and 2) do so professionally in technical domains like programming, math and research. This group of people is subject to the highest amount of "AI Psychosis" because the recent improvements in these domains as of this year have been nothing short of staggering. When you hand a computer terminal to one of these models, you can now watch them melt programming problems that you'd normally expect to take days/weeks of work. It's this second group of people that assigns a much greater gravity to the capabilities, their slope, and various cyber-related repercussions. TLDR the people in these two groups are speaking past each other. It really is simultaneously the case that OpenAI's free and I think slightly orphaned (?) "Advanced Voice Mode" will fumble the dumbest questions in your Instagram's reels and *at the same time*, OpenAI's highest-tier and paid Codex model will go off for 1 hour to coherently restructure an entire code base, or find and exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems. This part really works and has made dramatic strides because 2 properties: 1) these domains offer explicit reward functions that are verifiable meaning they are easily amenable to reinforcement learning training (e.g. unit tests passed yes or no, in contrast to writing, which is much harder to explicitly judge), but also 2) they are a lot more valuable in b2b settings, meaning that the biggest fraction of the team is focused on improving them. So here we are.

@YodaStockInvest Yep. after I sold them. lmfao

Have you ever invested in a stock that increased 5x+?

@123skely yea, I named my son Lemar

I like Korean, Japanese , and Chinese immigrants because when they come to the west they have the decency to change their name to something like “Kevin” or “LeBron James” or something easy to say. But Indians will just show up and continue to rock some something like “Ramshit”. Feels disrespectful.

@LongGameEquity Only when I need the cash badly or the fundamental changes.

At what price would you consider trimming $AMD?

@Arronwei3n @UKJP_Dog Total TAM growth was the main reason I invested in AMD early last year, and NVDA before that. I also believe we are at a very early stage of this super cycle. But most retailers prefer to trade or gamble rather than invest.

@Popinaplem @UKJP_Dog yeah, I always look at the bright side.

Wow, $INTC to supply server CPU to $GOOGL!

@Arronwei3n @UKJP_Dog That’s true. Not arguing about that.

@Popinaplem @UKJP_Dog not concerned about $INTC at all, much more bigger TAM after AGI and inferencing world we are about to face.

@UKJP_Dog @Arronwei3n It's still traded on narratives, but that doesn’t mean people can’t make a profit out of it. I don’t trade based on narratives though.

@Popinaplem @Arronwei3n True XD tell investor they are not losing market share that much!

@raycat2021 领导先走

以后的大规模战争大概都会这样：坐在车里观战，不用跑因为和你无关。

@nikoliasgoninus @lindatrippp Little dude got disappointed cuz he didn’t buy low lmfao

@lindatrippp +6,000% doesn’t look like disappointment to me Carl. Are you on earth?

$AMD stock is ready to explode.

@luishnkf @TJ_Research 问题是资产分析也没分析对啊

@TJ_Research 我觉得你有点在错误的道路上越走越远，大家喜欢看你视频是看你对资产的分析，有几个是看你地缘政治分析的？你现在在炫耀你地缘政治赌对了，有什么意义？大把人赌对了特朗普会taco，所以呢？你不去发挥你的强项做好自己的视频，分析基本面，反倒是跟这群赌对了的混在一起，不是反倒降低自己身价吗？

X上戾气太重，撕逼，多空互道傻逼，阴阳，键盘侠。 我每天花1,2个小时分享换来负反馈我图啥。我也不想嘲笑过去一周留言区里的nc留言。 昨天的X是告诉你们，我能比地缘政治专家在判断TACO上做得更好，且我还能在你们不敢加仓，在做空的时候加仓。每一次的事件之后，你们会找到正确的方法，SVB，24年9月份的降息恐惧，关税。 以后我的留言区会多数时候只开订阅者回复，只为留言区清净，和谐交流。针对订阅者的内容不会太多，没有啥内幕。订阅者的费用没多少，我会考虑以某种方式反馈给所有订阅者。 最后祝多头空头都赚钱，鼓励友好交流，提不同看法，要做键盘侠的，先订阅😂

@Landeur no ventilation ?

Men only want one thing and it's this.

@LongGameEquity you should look at mine lmfao.

Am I dumb or overly confident? $AMD

@Arronwei3n gotcha

@Popinaplem Deepening, I thought Google will rely on Axion

@unlimited_ls Great. I want to support this father to get this son of b. Where do I donate ?

BREAKING: Father says he ‘WILL K*LL’ the man who broke into his Kentucky home and st*bbed his six-year-old boy to death after he was released from prison having served just half his sentence The boy’s father says, “I’ve had my talks with God… I told the court if I ever cross paths with him, I will k*ll the man — I will k*ll him where he stands.” Ronald Exantus, 42, was released early from prison for good behavior He m*rdered Logan Tipton and severely injured his father and two young sisters Exantus entered the home through an unlocked door on the night of December 6, 2015 Logan was st*bbed repeatedly in the head so forcefully that the knife blade bent Exantus was sentenced to 20 years in 2018 after being found not guilty by reason of insanity for the m*rder and guilty but mentally ill on the assault charges

Yea, back out and back to Stone Age.

@Polymarket Yea, back out and back to Stone Age.

JUST IN: Iranian President threatens to back out of the ceasefire agreement.

GS: Our supply chain checks show multiple catalysts emerging in the ABF substrates industry, driven by the solid demand outlook and the favorable S/D outlook in at least the next 18-24 months. Our checks indicate 30-40%+ QoQ spot pricing hike from 2Q26, additional subsidies on ABF substrate shipment for LTA projects, and potential pricing hike on ABF build up film. Also, we have started to see most of the Taiwan ABF substrate players’ capacity becoming fully booked until end of this year, suggesting an even more positive pricing outlook in 2H26, as there is no additional capacity that can support the higher demand in the next 12+ months。 (See our updates on the AI ABF industry here). We expect ABF ASP will increase by 30-35%/45-50% YoY in 2026E/27E for all four ABF substrate suppliers in Taiwan(vs. last upcycle average at 80% YoY per year), and lead to a much more favorable earnings outlook for all players. Considering the ABF substrate GM/OPM is highly correlated with ABF pricing, we believe all ABF players’ GM can reach ~22-30% in 2026E (vs. 9-21% in 2025and could further rise to 30%-35% in 2027E, suggesting a much more favorable earnings outlook. Moreover, we expect all companies’ pricing level in 2026 to surpass the peak number in 2021, due mainly to the better demand structure now (i.e., AI and General server driven vs. last upcycle driven by the WFH demand), which should suggest a more favorable demand outlook in coming quarters/years (i.e., not only just a better pricing outlook due to the more expensive chip pricing, but also suggest more sustainable demand in coming years).

@david_parker No, I’m Canadian, and I fully blame Mark Carney and Justin Trudeau.

If you blame Donald Trump for Canada's problems, you are fool.