Nick | Positive Investing

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Nick | Positive Investing

Nick | Positive Investing

@PositiveInvst

📈 Investing in exceptional businesses. 🏆 Focused on long-term compounders. 🎥 Former YouTube Finance creator (75K+). 💡 Sharing my research.

Katılım Ocak 2020
155 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
$GOOGL $META $RDDT $NFLX
Wall St Engine@wallstengine

Piper’s June ad checks for $GOOGL, $META, $RDDT: For Google, U.S. Search share returned to growth for the first time since April 2025. Gemini also gained share among AI models, rising to 26.9%, behind ChatGPT at 57.2%. For Meta, Revealbot data showed average CPM growth accelerating to 26% in June from 12% in May, while ad buyer checks showed Q2 spend beating estimates by 120 bps. For Reddit, total users grew 2% MoM, but excluding a May data anomaly, June users were roughly flat vs May. Overall ad buyer checks were strong, with Q2 spend up 7.7% YoY, about 80 bps above expectations. Positive standouts were Reddit, Netflix, and YouTube, while Trade Desk was the weakest vs expectations.

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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
Today’s commentary from $IBM only ignites the momentum in names like $CRWD and $PANW They’ll likely keep going higher during this cycle. Security is always important, but even more so now with AI.
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
Who is buying $CRWD and $NET at 33x NTM revs? Does anyone really think these companies are undervalued? Are you expecting more multiple expansion? $CRWD and $NET are trading at 100x NTM FCF and 240x NTM FCF (respectively) not including SBC. I understand wanting cybersecurity exposure but hard to imagine these stocks provide good returns over the next 3-5 years from these current valuations/multiples.
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Wall St Engine
Wall St Engine@wallstengine·
SK HYNIX CEO: MEMORY CHIP SHORTAGE MAY PERSIST PAST 2030
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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
2026 will be the year where some look back and wonder why we didn’t build out quality names at suppressed valuations. I’m not missing this opportunity. I’m continuing to add to my highest conviction names. $META $AMZN $NOW $NFLX to name a few
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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
@JonahLupton Very optimistic on $RDDT (Holding some LEAPs). With the recent movement in $META, we should also see $RDDT naturally drift higher as well. Watching for a test around $230 to see if we can break higher.
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
$RDDT was already our biggest position coming into this week... we just added to our position (quite substantially) after reviewing the final alt data numbers for Q2 (from multiple sources) as well as early Q3 alt data. All of the alt data sources we're paying for have Q2 revenues at 55-60% YoY vs consensus at 46% YoY. On top of that it looks like revenue growth is accelerating through the first 10 days of Q3 (still early) I can't think of another internet/tech company that has more positive catalysts on the horizon than $RDDT -- 1) Q2 beat & raise 2) Q3 beat & raise 3) S&P 500 inclusion 4) new deal with Anthropic 5) revised/bigger deal with Gemini 6) revised/bigger deal with OpenAi 7) multiple expansion I have $RDDT doing $7.60 EPS this year which is 67% YoY growth... this means $RDDT is now trading at 26x CY2026 EPS with $3B in cash and no debt... if you include the cash it means $RDDT is currently trading at less than 24x CY2026 EPS... looking ahead to next year... $RDDT is currently trading at less than 19x CY2027 EPS (excluding cash) and close to 16x CY2027 EPS (including cash)... with an EPS CAGR of 54% over the next 2 years (not including buybacks which would juice the number even higher) If most of the catalysts above play out as expected then I think $RDDT has at least 50% upside through year end and maybe more... personally I think $RDDT should be trading at 42x NTM EPS (or higher) given their fundamentals, growth rates, margins, stock buybacks, balance sheet and upcoming catalysts which means the stock is 60% undervalued at current prices.
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton

Every couple of months I post our top positions at @FirstWaveFund and since we sent our May investor letter a few days ago I don’t mind sharing those positions... here are the top 12 in alphabetical order: AAOI, ALAB, APP, CRDO, HIMS, HROW, IREN, MELI, MU, NBIS, RDDT, TMDX All estimates are my own. Every company mentioned in this post has risks so please do your own research and form your own opinions, thesis and conviction. Please don't waste your time asking me where I'd be buying or trimming... because I won't answer. I spend alot of time building our models and thinking through all the possible variables and catalysts that will impact the reported financials but in reality trying to predict revenues, margins, dilution and earnings in CY2028 or FY2029 is not easy. $AAOI CY2025 revenues = $455M CY2028 revenues = $10.70B 3 year revenue CAGR = 186% CY2025 EPS = -$0.26 CY2026 EPS = $1.04 CY2028 EPS = $10.40 2 year EPS CAGR from CY2026 through CY2028 = 216% Currently trading at 15.6x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $ALAB CY2025 revenues = $852M CY2028 revenues = $3.88B 3 year revenue CAGR = 66% CY2025 EPS = 1.84 CY2028 EPS = $8.55 3 year EPS CAGR = 67% Currently trading at 48.7 CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $APP CY2025 revenues = $5.48B CY2028 revenues = $16.67B 3 year revenue CAGR = 45% CY2025 EPS = $10.64 CY2028 EPS = $37.06 3 year EPS CAGR = 52% Currently trading at 12.6x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $CRDO FY2025 revenues = $436M FY2028 revenues = $4.11B 3 year revenue CAGR = 111% FY2025 EPS = $0.70 FY2028 EPS = $10.68 3 year EPS CAGR = 148% Currently trading at 25.5x FY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $HIMS CY2025 revenues = $2.35B CY2028 revenues = $5.81B 3 year revenue CAGR = 35% CY2025 EPS = $1.10 CY2028 EPS = $2.55 3 year EPS CAGR = 32% Currently trading at 13.9x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $HROW CY2025 revenues = $272M CY2028 revenues = $928B 3 year revenue CAGR = 50% CY2025 EPS = -$0.14 CY2026 EPS = $1.09 CY2028 EPS = $5.64 2 year EPS CAGR = 127% Currently trading at 7.6x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $IREN FY2025 revenues = $510M FY2028 revenues = $6.60B FY2029 revenues = $9.88B 4 year revenue CAGR = 110% FY2025 EPS = $0.35 FY2028 EPS = $0.68 FY2029 EPS = $1.33 4 year EPS CAGR = 40% Currently trading at 45.1x FY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $MELI CY2025 revenues = $28.89B CY2028 revenues = $65.81B 3 year revenue CAGR = 32% CY2025 EPS = $39.40 CY2028 EPS = $90.14 3 year EPS CAGR = 32% Currently trading at 18.1x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $MU FY2025 revenues = $37.38B FY2028 revenues = $274.18B 3 year revenue CAGR = 94% FY2025 EPS = $8.29 FY2028 EPS = $151.32 3 year EPS CAGR = 163% Currently trading at 7.5x FY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $NBIS CY2025 revenues = $530M CY2028 revenues = $22.83B 3 year revenue CAGR = 250% CY2028 EPS = $5.42 CY2031 EPS = $23.96 Currently trading at 47.8x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) 3 year EPS CAGR from CY2028 through CY2031 = 64% $RDDT CY2025 revenues = $2.20B CY2028 revenues = $6.24B 3 year revenue CAGR = 42% CY2025 EPS = $4.54 CY2028 EPS = $14.15 3 year EPS CAGR = 46% Currently trading at 12.3x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $TMDX CY2025 revenues = $605M CY2028 revenues = $1.34B 3 year revenue CAGR = 30% CY2025 EPS = $2.63 CY2028 EPS = $6.33 3 year EPS CAGR = 34% Currently trading at 12.4x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) NFA. DYOR. *I own all of these stocks personally and so does @FirstWaveFund **If you see any glaring mistakes in my numbers feel free to comment below and I'll double check my work/models. ENJOY THE LONG WEEKEND. GO SOCCER!!!!!

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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
$META Fakeout or Breakout? Keep an eye on the close this week, and on volume. I'd like to see a close > $665 with continued heavy volume today/tomorrow.
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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
@DrewCohenMoney Heavy negative sentiment recently. Business fundamentals still look strong, but commentary from the upcoming earnings will be interesting. Keeping a close eye on Ads growth!
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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
@WisemanCap I think most are missing the point. It’s not that SBUX will or won’t move away from MSFT - it’s that it will take time for them to prove it out one way or another. Thus, recovery in MSFT will take longer than most expect imo.
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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
@WisemanCap Based on the news from $SBUX today, I think it’ll take longer for a reversal here. A lot of uncertainty on their SaaS business and that isn’t showing signs of changing sentiment yet
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Kaushik
Kaushik@WisemanCap·
Next sentiment reversal will be $MSFT
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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
@McDonalds can we PLEASE embrace some vibe coding and improve the app? There’s no reason in this day and age for an app to function this poorly. $MCD
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M Mohan
M Mohan@mukund·
Why did Morocco look so good before and ordinary today ? #fifa #MorVsFra
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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
@mukund Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Gonna be interesting to see how this plays out and if sets a precedent for other Fortune 500 to cut spend the same way
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M Mohan
M Mohan@mukund·
Their $2 billion spend, they spend only $400 million a year on software. So that can maybe come down 50%. I don't think so, but let's say it comes down 50%. The other big area of spend is outsourcing, they can bring down that easily by about two or three, maybe even more, maybe $500 million from the existing 4 billion. So that'll save them another, I would say, 500 million. So 500 million plus 200 million, 700 million, and another billion dollars, they probably just upgrade and remove a lot of equipment they have before. That's my guess.
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M Mohan
M Mohan@mukund·
If $SBUX can replace *some* Of the tools that it gets from Microsoft and IBM, even if it is small, that'll be a huge decision $MSFT $IBM
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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
@mukund That sounds much more in line with my thoughts. Even if we say $100M. That’s a far cry fry $2B so I’m very confused where that extra spend is going 🫠
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M Mohan
M Mohan@mukund·
@PositiveInvst I don't think they're spending 2 billion for all of these seats to be honest. Power apps, Power BI, the OpenAI, Azure stuff, and Dynamics 365 together account for probably in the 60 million or so range. this was 2020 data.
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Nick | Positive Investing
Nick | Positive Investing@PositiveInvst·
@mukund So this sounds like the usual suite of MSFT. That still seems like a ridiculous cost annually of $2B for seats… unless I’m missing something
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M Mohan
M Mohan@mukund·
@PositiveInvst I can talk to Microsoft. I dont know what they use from $IBM For Microsoft $SBUX spends millions on 1) Power apps 2) PowerBI - Business intelligence 3) Green apron uses OpenAI vs Azure OpenAI 4) Dynamics 365 - their CRM for Equipment maintenance operations
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Keşfet

@JonahLupton @Stephanie_Link @wallstengine @DrewCohenMoney @WisemanCap @McDonalds @mukund @elonmusk