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Kaushik
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Kaushik
@WisemanCap
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Seattle, WA Katılım Nisan 2009
920 Takip Edilen111.8K Takipçiler
$AMZN The GOOGL of 2026 - '#1 Long recommendation for 2026' - Evercore ISI
Our View: We reiterate our Outperform and $285 PT on AMZN, in the wake of a deep-dive into AWS’s growth outlook and unit economics. Based on our work, we are also raising our AWS and AMZN estimates. We now estimate 2026 and 2027 AWS revenue of $163B (27% Y/Y growth) and $214B (31%), with AWS Op Margins of 34% and 32%, respectively. Our total AMZN Revenue and Operating Income estimates rise by a modest 2-3% to levels that are now 4%-5% above the Street. Our #1 Large Cap Long: AMZN remains our #1 Long recommendation for 2026, as we a) view current valuation as compelling (at a 3-year trough P/E multiple); b) see the probability of a fundamental inflection point this year (i.e. accelerating revenue growth and operating margin expansion); c) see notable upside to Street estimates; and d) point to the significant potential for some of AMZN’s newer long-term growth initiatives (esp. Project Leo & Perishable Checkout) to begin to demonstrate real traction in 2026. The $200B overhang on AMZN remains its unprecedented capex outlook, but we believe Capex Intensity (Capex as % of Revenue) is likely to peak in 2026, with FCF losses troughing in either ’26 or ’27 (for now, we estimate approx. $10B FCF losses in each year, even with capex ramping to $250B in 2027). There is a not-immaterial possibility that 2027 -- and not 2026 – will be the peak Capex Intensity year for AMZN and that FCF losses could rise materially in 2027. But we believe this outcome is likely in the stock at 22X P/E. Risk-reward looks compelling here. The GOOGL of 2026.
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New Street Research adds NVIDIA to 2026 best ideas list
Well... at a trillion-dollar revenues, Nvidia is likely to generate over $20 of earnings per share, maybe $25, and spend half this into buybacks and dividends. The stock trades at less than 10x this today... Maybe only 7x!!! It all sounds like Nvidia could be a double bagger on the combination of earnings revision and the low multiple, opening the door to very efficient buybacks. This really puts us against the wall and forces us to add the stock to our best idea list for 2026!
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$MU PT to $700 at Cantor Following Blowout Quarter
Another quarter, another blowout! The company guided May Q EPS of $19.15 at the midpoint vs. consensus of $12.03 and buyside expectations of $15-17. The spectacular upside is all about pricing, across both DRAM and NAND (enabling 81% GM guide). Yes, indeed, it is ok to blush. The story is all about AI, which is now driving for the first time 50% of total DRAM bits, and a very tight NAND environment, helped by limited supply additions as well as KVCache. And, very importantly, you could argue we are just getting started. DRAM and NAND remain constrained, and our work suggests S/D will only get worse in CY27. To this end, Micron raised its FY26 Capex to $25B from $20B, but we would note that this is mostly on clean room/ construction with equipment spend largely focused on HBM AP and equipment upgrades to support improved efficiency (i.e., greater bit output). Finally, Micron highlighted its first multi-year SCA agreement (with others in the queue) but would not provide much help on the terms of these agreements (I.e. fixed or variable pricing, guaranteed delivery/acceptance, etc.). Thus, a good start, but it doesn’t provide the assurances investors are looking for to better understand market dynamics when supply/demand is more balanced. As for other potential concerns, Micron is now moving to a sustainability on GM’s as well as around overall demand (ala NVIDIA) following the very strong guide - implied incremental May GM’s of 97%. As for our thoughts, tight supply still supports robust pricing throughout CY26 and CY7, enabling sustained earnings growth in the quarters ahead. Put it all together and with EPS stretch goal now approaching $100 into the CY27 timeframe our call remains the same - stay long and strong Memory and Micron. We raise our price target to $700 or 7x our new stretch EPS goal. Considering still considerable upside, Micron remains a TOP PICK. As for laterals, clearly positive for DRAM and NAND players. Comment on greater EUV adoption a positive for ASML (something we highlighted a few weeks back). On the other hand, suggestion of supply constraints driving PC/Smartphone units down low double digits a negative for more consumerfocused chip players.
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@proxietuna It can go $1000 before going back to $100. No one knows when demand will slow!
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@WisemanCap The problem is Wall Street has been screaming peak cycle for around 2 years now. And have been clearly wrong.
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Marko is right but it is all about timing though!
Marko Kolanovic@markoinny
People are surprised that $MU is down on stellar tripled yoy revenues. But they are quiet about the fact price is up like seven fold in the same period. Imagine when shortages are resolved and there is a glut, these stocks will drop 75% $SNDK $MU $WDC $STX
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@P_Remarks Some think it will be vibe coded, just software right 🤣
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@ConsensusGurus Current Q
Street Consensus: ~$8.69 – $8.80
Whisper Number: ~$9.19 – $9.70
Street Consensus (FY 2026): ~$36.18 - $36.51
High-End / Whisper Outlook (FY 2026): ~$45.70
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Is the Micron whisper EPS number really 25% higher than street on an annualized basis this quarter and forward outlook?
$MU
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