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Private Credit Fund Redemption Pressure: Approved vs. Denied Withdrawals ($ millions)

@KobeissiLetter To put it bluntly, words can't control the bond market, but the bond market can dictate policy—soaring oil prices, spiking interest rates, and mortgage rates jumping to seven percent are what really make Trump restless.

Absolutely incredible: The US 20Y Note Yield is now back to 5.00% less than 24 hours after President Trump said peace talks were underway. The threat of 7% mortgages and $4.00 gas prices has become reality. Bond markets say this war is unsustainable.

@TedPillows To put it simply, BlackRock is not stupid. It knows that what ETH lacks at its current price is a reason. Rather than waiting for it to rise, it is better to attract institutions with yields first.

$ETH ETF outflow of $16,200,000 🔴 yesterday. BlackRock sold $14,600,000 in Ethereum.

@Polymarket Be tied to the chariot or take the initiative to join?

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia & UAE have “taken steps toward joining” the Iran special military operation.

本当のことを言えば、中央銀行はまだ必死で買っている。これは金に問題があるわけではなく、ただドルとFRBの話が一時的に勝っただけだ。 今の底値買いは、結局のところ2つの賭けに過ぎない。FRBが政策を転換することを賭けるか、中東で再び紛争が起こることを賭けるかだ。 選択を間違えればさらに価格が暴落し、正しければ一気に大きな利益が得られる。

直近の金相場の下落は以下の投資家の心理的背景が隠されています。 まずこれまでのゴールドは最高値を超えていたため、過去を基準とした売りのレジスタンスが存在しない正に青天井相場に入っていました。 この状態というのは一見強く見えますが、投資家心理としてはむしろ逆で ・どこが天井か分からない ・どこで強い売りが来るか分からない という不確実性が最大化された状態です。 だからこそ「早く利益を確定したい」という防衛本能が常に働きます。 このような環境で唯一の共通基準になるのが、 一本化されたトレンドラインです。 青天井の中でこのラインを割れるということは → 唯一の上昇基準の崩壊 → 投資家の共通認識の崩れを意味します。 結果として「売られるかもしれない」という不安心理が一気に拡散し、利確売りが連鎖的に発生しやすくなる構造になります。 これが最高値更新をしている相場の深い調整下落が来るときの予兆と特徴になります。

Macro bears have been winning easily for so long that no one is following them anymore; they exit automatically as soon as prices move up, which shows the market never bought into that narrative at all. Whether a genuine new high can be forged will ultimately depend on whether the market can shake off the impulsive long positions and hold that line.

$BTC I think it's clear what the market wants. It's no point in shorting every move up when you think the macro is bearish. Macro can remain bearish and price could go and touch $80k and come down. That's why this when this blue line is held and reclaimed it daily, that would be confirmation of it. A new swing high would be in place.

Actually, there are no real safe-haven assets anymore. The best way to protect yourself right now is "cash + a time horizon" — if you have a time frame of more than 5 years, any asset at its bottom is an opportunity; but if you need liquid funds within a year, you should just wait patiently — wait for the Fed to change its stance, wait for oil prices to stabilize, and wait for the concentration of power to disperse.

Can't invest in Gold, goes to zero. Can't invest in Bitcoin, goes to zero. Can't invest in stocks, goes to zero. Can't invest in silver, goes to zero. Can't invest in cash, goes to zero. Can't invest in Ethereum, goes below zero. What can we invest in?

@coingecko As long as that 48.5% doesn't crash, it can theoretically hold. But once it does, how fast will the remaining 51.5% plummet from $2.64 to $0.5? No one dares to say.

$SIREN hit a market cap of $2B in less than a month from $160M. Do you think it's overpriced or will it hold?

@MerlijnTrader Failing to hold above $70K is indeed a signal, but this signal does not mean an "inevitable drop"—rather, it indicates that "the macroeconomy has not yet recovered," which is the real determining factor.

THE BITCOIN BEAR MARKET SIGNAL HAS A TRACK RECORD. 2015: triggered. -48% followed. 2018: triggered. -42% followed. 2022: triggered. -55% followed. 2026: triggered. -0% so far. Pattern isn't complete yet. Reclaim $70K: signal invalidates. Bulls win. Stay below it: historical pattern completes. Three signals. Zero false alarms. This one just triggered.

@TedPillows With such a drop, either there will be a turnaround within 24 hours, or the full impact of this "energy war" will only be truly priced in after the deadline expires tonight. South Korea's sharpest drop of -5.92% makes it clear: these positions dare not take the gamble.

Major Sell-off In Global Stock Markets: South Korea: -5.92% China: -3.17% Japan: -3.02% India: -2.57% Singapore: -2.17% Australia: -0.74% This is happening as markets are nearing the 48-hour deadline given by Trump.

@AshCrypto Until the Fed changes its stance, the risk of gold continuing to be sold off is far greater than the possibility of a rebound.

Gold just dipped below $4,100 for the first time since November 2025. Gold is now down -24% since the US-Iran war started 23 days ago. Safe-haven my ass.

@nicosokufx だから過去の「パターン」で待ってると危ない。声明とか延期発表じゃなくて、イランの体制がどっちに動くのか、ホルムズ海峡の運航禁止がどこまで現実化するのかが鍵になる。 そこまで見えないから、VIが下がらない。

日経VI（日本版VIX 恐怖指数）40～50近辺で高止まり🚨 「原因は分かっているけど不透明感が続く」のが今の相場の一番の重し 👉️沈静化すれば一気に株価が急反発する可能性もある🤔 ✅2024年8月 日銀ショック🔥 → 日銀副総裁の「市場不安定な状況で利上げしない」で鎮静化 ✅2025年4月 トランプ関税ショック🔥 → TACO（関税延期）発表で鎮静化 ✅現在（2026年3月）中東ショック🔥 → 情勢緊迫化が続き、さらなるエネルギー施設攻撃などエスカレートするおそれもある。 今後 過去2回のような安心材料が出るまでは、まだ警戒レベル継続ですね。

@TedPillows The probability of breaking below $2,000 depends on whether the macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate, not on whether there are "patterns" in the technical aspects.

$ETH failed to reclaim the $2,100 level and is now moving down. Now, the only crucial support level for Ethereum is $2,000 and if ETH loses it, the dump will accelerate to new lows.

@honey_xbt $2,600 is not something that comes easily; it is a level that requires accumulated momentum and macroeconomic support to truly hold firm. The next key focus is Fed Chair Powell's press conference next week, which will be the moment that truly sets the tone.

@angorou7 一体のどのモデルが真の機関やイノベーションを引き寄せられるのか、まだ決まっていない。 ただし、一つだけ確かなことがある。税率による優遇措置だけではもはや不十分で、規制の明確さと金融インフラこそが真の競争力となるのだ。

@MaxCrypto The issue does not lie in the quadruple witching calendar event itself, but in whether the stock market can hold the key support level of 6800 this week — that is the real factor determining the direction of BTC.

🚨BIG DAY FOR THE MARKETS $6,400,000,000,000 in US equity and derivatives will expire today. This is called "quadruple witching" and only happens 4 times in a year. During 3 of the last 4 quadruple witching, $BTC dropped 7%-8% before a bounceback.

@TedPillows These outflows are not a signal to reduce positions; they are merely a transfer from one basket to another.

$ETH ETF outflow of $131,200,000 🔴 yesterday. BlackRock sold $102,300,000 in Ethereum.

韓国が暗号資産税率0%（非課税）を継続へ🇰🇷 韓国の与党「国民の力」が、2027年導入予定の「暗号資産税22%」を撤廃する法案を提出しました ずっと課税が見送られている韓国では、暗号資産の普及率が非常に高くなり、今やクリプト大国です 日本も非課税にして、イノベーションを起こすべき

ETH - range breakout ✅ - retest ✅ - bounce ⏳ we also reclaimed 4h EMA200 after a long time, so things are looking good overall $2600 next? 👀

現在日本株の下落幅が比較的緩やかなのは、年初に大幅に上昇しすぎたためで、現在は単にバリュエーションを調整している段階に過ぎない。 熊市が確定したわけではなく、巨視的なマクロ環境の切り替えに伴う一時的な変動にすぎない——底値はまだ確定しておらず、重要なのは来週のFedによるパウエル議長の記者会見と来月のCPIデータにかかっている。

NYダウ、ナスダック、S&P500「日足200日線割れ」⚠ 👉チャート的には日本株よりも米株のほうが心配な状況。 200日線は「1年間の平均取得コスト」であり、多くの投資家が強気・弱気の分水嶺として注視しています。 ここを下回ったことで、調整（値幅・日柄）がさらに強まるのか、それとも早期に奪還できるのか？ 今は正念場ですね。 📈 年初来パフォーマンスの明暗 ・米国株：マイナス（各指数-4％程度）⤵️ ・日本株：プラス（日経・TOPIX +6％程度）⤴️