PracticalHare

RIP Charlie Munger | Humble, Generous, Persistent, Patient | Let's honour him via our Persistence and Humility | Much happens between “Once upon a time” and “Happily ever after.” It often feels wretched | Whatever Your Goal, Play the Long Game

🧵Softs $PDBA = Hedge vs Armageddon ? 📢PSA: Newbies should KISS w ETFs + ❗️study portfolio mgmt❗️st learn portfolio/risk mgmt 🐸That said, @RibbitsOfWisdom = Refreshing Fertilizer Industry Follow who appears to actually know his stuff x.com/RibbitsOfWisdo…

🐢Softs= Possible Hedge v Armageddon ? 💋KISS Keep It Simple Silly $TILL=K-1 Free $CANE+ $WEAT+ $SOYB+ $CORN $PDBA= ditto w coffee, hogs, cattle also Building 10%ish position === Already Hiding in 🐢Cash= 40%ish 🐢Energy= 15%++ portfolio w TrailingStopMkts === NA DYODD

@real_MikeBarnes IMHO You'll do very well on this. Portfolio rules cap my individual equity positions. But, disclosure, this is a full position in its class within same portfolio. Would overweight on any mkt meltdown. Strongly agree w you.

@PracticalHare The thing is 6-7 CAD at 120 WTI for any length of time and 10+ if they decided to favor buybacks over specials. I have a big chunk. It is my main oil play.

Big buyer comes into $HME.v $HMENF end of day for the weekend here

🧵Softs $PDBA K-1 Free = Hedge v Armageddon ? 💋Newbies KISS w $PDBA 💋Gradual Accum Pullbacks bc Volatile *Global Trend* into Autumn Food Supply eg $WEAT: ✅x.com/business/statu… ✅x.com/business/statu… ✅x.com/business/statu…

@JasonP138 @GreenMonsterah Weekday brisk walk w random finance podcast from shortlist. Your Excellent podcast today made me think. Thank you.

@GreenMonsterah Yes at Harvard.

#Unabomber was #MKULTRA he was getting back at the people & system who fcked him up! @JasonP138

🧵Secular Shifts Start Slow $ABXX $ABXXF ⚾️PROBLEM: Commodity Mkt Liquidity Gaps ⚾️ROOT CAUSE: Commodity Exchange $CME $ICE *Financial* settlement >> Clunky price discovery ⚾️SOLUTION: Blockchain Settlement Disrupts w Asset Tracking >> *Physical* futures contracts

Grim Longrun Perspective 🚨IF Perception that 🇺🇸mkt is "Rigged Casino" THEN Improves *Relative* Risk $ILF $FXI $ASHR $AFK 🚨Secular Shift in Portfolio Risk/Reward NA DYODD

🧵 $CANE w K-1 instead of Sugar #11 (SB=F) 🃏Equity Investors Avoid Trading Futures Directly ⛳️ IMHO Sugar Teeing Up for 2H2026 ⛳️ SB=F > USD14.5 signals price support or 💋KISS $PDBA K-1 Free exposure to $CANE $SOYB $WEAT $CORN

🧵 $CANE wrt Social Unrest Equities ⏰NOW: Poor Planting Season ⏰BAD NEWS: Triggers Social Unrest Alarm ⏰GOOD NEWS: 2H2026 Possible 50%+ upside 💡Sugar $CANE w K-1 💡Policing Social Unrest $AXON $CLBT === Larger Position in Softs K-1 Free ETF $PDBA

@business India is #1 Global Producer of Refined Sugar, but #2 of Sugarcane. Brazil is #1 Global Producer of Sugarcane but #2 in Refined Sugar. Important distinction given that Sugar commodity thinly traded compared to oil or even grains.

India, the world’s second-largest producer of sugar, has banned exports until the end of September, according to an official notice, as the government seeks to protect local supplies bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🧵 $CANE ⚾️ India= #1 Global Producer Refined Sugar 34mn tonnes/yr, #2 Sugarcane >> BANS Exports until 30Sept ⚾️ Brazil= #2 Refined 27mn tonnes/yr, #1 Sugarcane >> Watch Ethanol ⚾️ x.com/i/status/20547…

🧵 $CANE Just Getting Started Sugar= "Go To" food if other calories expensive 🌴Supply Constraints: Mediocre Planting Season + Ethanol 🌴Demand: Thin Market >> When it moves, it moooves 🌴Trigger: $CANE Lower Risk in USD$10.5 to $11 range Disc: Position x.com/Stockspy1/stat…

@Stockspy1 IMHO Just. Getting. Started. Dreadful planting season so far + Sugar = "Go To" food supplement when other calories (think Grains) are scarce or expensive.

$CANE Train 2.0

🧵Secular Shifts Start Slow Watch ABAXX $ABXXF $ABXX.NE= Redefines Exchange + Jeff Currie exCG/GS -vs- $CME= lower risk === IMHO Part of Secular Shift podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sma…

@irbezek Great post. Hope your wife and baby, as well as your other children, are well. Family health scares are absolutely terrifying. May this find all of you well.

Full post here: ianbezek.substack.com/p/colombia-ele…

Colombia election preview. *I see 65% chance of a conservative victory. *I'm most bullish on $AVAL. *Also like $TGLS and $AUNA ahead of the election. *Thoughts on $EC, $CIB, and other Colombia-linked equities along with the Peso and general biz climate.

@VulmearJ45663 @real_MikeBarnes Thank You. Well said. Have been feeling loads of self doubt in my oil and gold positions. Heavy weights on both, with PDBA as well, and lots of cash apart from that.

@PracticalHare @real_MikeBarnes Lies, fake news, algos, manipulation, etc don't make up for 10-15M barrels of oil a day. oil isn't going back to $65. and I don't see this ending soon. NATO/Russia was kinetic WW3 phase 1 & US-Isreal/Iran is phase 2. It's the end of the post WW2 global order.

Pls let crude and gold align now. Pls.

@VulmearJ45663 @real_MikeBarnes Brett, do you see a scenario where gold and oil rise together? I do, but spooked by recent govt interference in mkt. Asking for sanity check (on my pov).

@real_MikeBarnes 52% of my portfolio

@gnoble79 Retail doesn't appreciate the dangers. Nor do policy makers. Degrades transparency premium of US mkts.

THE SEC JUST BETRAYED EVERY RETAIL INVESTOR IN AMERICA They formally proposed ELIMINATING mandatory quarterly reporting. Companies would file 2x a year instead of 4. Trump championed it and SEC Chair Atkins fast-tracked it. The Republican majority on the commission means it will almost certainly pass. The stated reason: quarterly reporting creates "short-term thinking." But the REAL beneficiaries are CEOs who don't want investors asking questions every 90 days. This isn't a new idea either. Trump mentioned it during his first term in 2018 and the SEC studied it. But their own economists concluded that quarterly reporting increases transparency and reduces the cost of capital for companies raising funds. They ignored it because the evidence said it was a BAD idea. Now it's back. And this time the votes are there to push it through. The argument that quarterly reporting encourages short-termism sounds reasonable until you really think about it: Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett wrote a joint op-ed in 2018 calling for the end of quarterly guidance. But guidance and mandatory disclosure are two completely different things. You can stop giving guidance tomorrow - nobody's stopping you. What this proposal does is let companies stop SHOWING YOU THE NUMBERS. Think about what that means in practice. Right now if a company's margins are collapsing or cash is hemorrhaging or debt is quietly ballooning, you find out within 90 days. Under this proposal you might not see those numbers for half a year. That's 6 months where insiders know the business is deteriorating and you don't. 6 months where management can keep selling you a story while the fundamentals rot underneath it. America's capital markets became the envy of the world BECAUSE of disclosure requirements, not in spite of them. The quarterly reporting mandate has been in place since the 1970s. Every major economy that weakened its disclosure regime saw transparency deteriorate. When the European Commission dropped quarterly reporting requirements in 2013, research found that information asymmetry between insiders and outside investors widened almost immediately. Now ask yourself: Who benefits from cutting financial disclosure in half? Not retail investors who already have less information than the institutions trading against them. Not analysts trying to hold management teams accountable. The beneficiaries are executives who would rather go 6 months without an earnings call than answer uncomfortable questions about where the money is going. Companies where the gap between the story and the numbers gets wider every quarter. Companies where the CEO's compensation is tied to stock prices that require narratives nobody is allowed to question. In 45 years on Wall Street I've learned ONE thing about transparency: Companies that want you to see less are ALWAYS the ones you need to watch most closely. The SEC is proposing to give them exactly what they want. In the most leveraged, most narrative-driven, most accountability-free market since 1999. THIS NEEDS TO STOP

🛢Secular Shifts Start Slow ⏰️Govt antics w Paper Oil impedes supply demand response. Prep now for what's coming in Energy and Ag 🎧Trevor Rose on Spotify/ YouTube = always great interviewer for careful listen while walking x.com/i/status/20524…

🛢Boring Energy Basket AllStar Member $CNQ 🥕Cashflow Positive down to $34 oil 🥕Long reserve life 🥕Great mgmt + geography 🥕 26yr Dividend aristocrat w 20% CAGR 🥕Full Position since 4Q2025 🥕Hope to overweight if Paper Oil pushes $CNQ down 15%ish

🇨🇦Rodney Dangerfield of Energy Superpowers 🥕Prefer Accumulating *Before* Good News 🥕"Keep It Simple, Silly" w great mgmts/location 💋🇨🇦Majors $CNQ $CVE $SU $IMO 💋🇨🇦Royalties $TPZ $PSK 🥕Slowly Buying Dips >> Sleep-At-Nite Basket

@GavMcCracken Pit-of-stomach dread that we're witnessing permanent damage to USA mkt mechanisms. They can F with global mkts once, just once. Paper Oil, for now. Future 2nd-ary unintended consequences for supply, food, etc. Creative destruction st other exchanges, mkts, etc

Oil very slowly trending upwards as more information comes out that @axios is a lying propaganda outlet.

@BubleQe @arcresources Ditto, my price target for the next 12-18 months was 15% above to agreed buyout price (at yesterday's $SHEL price before today's paper oil dunk). "Bird in hand" logic works if mgmt believes that Canada LNG may be delayed/dinged st buyout premium compressed

I'm not convinced that Hal & $ARX.TO / @arcresources have done the right thing for shareholders. A fairly anemic exit, timed precisely as Condy prices soared > $140/bbl CAD) & exited before the highly lucrative #LNG agreements commence. Shoulda been a $TOU.TO merger 🇨🇦 IMO.