Welfare Capital

The 6th most visited website on the internet, $RDDT, is still dramatically under-monetized. I think they’re going to 7x operating profit by 2028. In about 20 minutes, this free writeup will tell you exactly how that’s going to happen. Link below.

Honestly I think you could make arguments that both of these firms are a bit too cheap, Marex moreso, trading at just under half the earnings multiple of StoneX. As far as I can tell these are the only 2 public traded non-bank FCMs that operate in this sort of diversified conglomerate manner, serving lots of market segments with lots of products. You know, you have pure brokers trading at significantly higher multiples, take IBKR and HOOD. They are growing very quickly themselves but Marex is growing EPS at about the rate IBKR has been, if not better actually, with more attractive returns on equity… and IBKR gets a 25x+ multiple, whereas Marex’s is 8.5x? Obviously they are wildly different firms in many ways, IBKR is a bit expensive but arguably deserves (IMO) to trade up in that range, it is sort of impossible to compete with them in global retail brokerage, but you know, I don’t think Marex is inherently that much more risky than IBKR. The financial leverage alone shouldn’t have them discounted that much. Both are brokers, both FCMs, both have small market making operations. Both have very low, kinda negligible credit losses and they both carry significant excess liquidity buffers. But because IBKR serves predominantly retail investors, it gets to trade above 25x P/E? I don’t quite get it. Even Schwab which is still a very impressive firm in its own right, trades at 20x TTM. End rant (not really a rant more of an observation?)

I think the non-bank FCMs $SNEX and $MRX are underdiscussed when people mention acquisition-driven compounders. Both of these firms have been able to use acquisitions very well to realize pretty impressive synergies or to acquire complimentary assets at very attractive prices. Some examples: In December 2025 Marex closed their acquisition of Winterflood, a small UK equity Market maker. This supplements Marex’s existing market making segment naturally, but after the subsequent sale of Winterflood’s custody business expected to close in Q2, Marex will have acquired Winterflood at a “meaningful” discount to tangible book value, which in this case being a market maker, is almost entirely composed of easy to sell and easy to value liquid securities. So overall, a pretty nice deal. During 2025 Marex acquired Aarna capital, a small Abu Dhabi broker, and immediately increased profitability by nearly 50% after routing Aarna through Marex’s own clearing membership, whereas previously, Aarna had to go through 3rd party clearing members and was losing significant interest spread in those relationships. Then you have StoneX, a firm that has completed over 30 acquisitions in its history. One example of their prowess here is their 2019 acquisition of CoinInvest, later rebranded to StoneX Bullion. At acquisition that business was making around $1.5mm annually. After being integrated and cross-sold, distributed by the rest of StoneX’s platform for 6 years, and given the recent volatility in metals markets, StoneX Bullion recently has been making that much $1.5mm *per day*. StoneX overall has grown BVPS at a 23% CAGR since Q1 2020. Marex has said they have over 50 acquisition targets in the pipeline, StoneX has just as many I’m sure. There are going to be plenty more acquisitions where it’s relatively easy to not only realize immediate profitability synergies but potentially also to cross-sell new capabilities to existing clients, and existing capabilities to acquired new clients. Even with recent proposed reductions in capital requirements for banks, I think these names will both continue to have a really strong opportunity to create value by rolling up a lot of smaller, regional firms in the space. This is in addition to their organic growth which remains strong in both cases.

excited to announce that we’re open sourcing EGO-SNAKE the largest dataset of egocentric snake pov footage to train the next generation of autonomous vipers comment for a data sample

@3Plantey2 Likewise shrimps!

@Pray4Equity Np, wish ya the best!

Here’s an interesting UK small cap pitch: $BAG.L, the manufacturer of Scotland’s leading soda brand IRN-BRU (“Iron Brew”), A.K.A. “Scotland’s other national drink,” aside from Scotch Whiskey. Suffice it to say, they almost completely dominate the soda market in Scotland, with IRN-BRU having been the dominant soft drink in Scotland for over 100 years. The company was founded in 1875 (!). Very consistent growth with stable margins. 18% ROCE, historical acquirer of new brands and supply chain integrator with ROIC at 14% and expanding, 6% dividend CAGR since 2004, currently yielding 2.7% at a 40% payout ratio. Available today for 15x 2026 EPS estimates. Seeing their track record and the extreme durability of their brand, I’d expect long-term growth at HSD with a potential pinch of margin expansion on top. In addition to IRN-BRU in soft drinks, they own the leader in pre-mixed cocktails in the UK under their FUNKIN Brand, and they have expanded into vitamin waters, energy drinks, and plant-based categories like oat milk. They also have an exclusive license to sell and distribute Snapple in the UK, interestingly. Anyway; this one isn’t going to generate any mouth-watering returns at this price. But given enough time, I’d bet it dips down to a more attractive valuation, say 12-14x? Either way, it seems like a good way to generate a market return and add some diversification backed by one of the strongest consumer product brands I’ve ever seen.

With that in mind, $RDDT secured the initial AI licensing deals before their citation value to LLMs really exploded. Renewals (by 2H 2026) should happen from a much stronger bargaining position, with much of the incremental revenue dropping through at very high margins, almost pure profit. And that’s before factoring in potential additional agreements with Perplexity, Anthropic, etc. Alongside that, they still have plenty of levers to pull on ad monetization. Weighting machine should eventually prevail. 🙏

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@3Plantey2 I see. My apologies

@Pray4Equity It was a joke based on the ticker.... Read the room

@3Plantey2 I do not own this stock. Even if I did it’d be a hell of a lot smaller than your HASH.V

@Pray4Equity So, how big is your bag?

So is Japan actually going to lose 40% of their electricity, Jesus

This is objectively great

@blondesnmoney Honestly probably still HOOD

What are your top financials shorts?

@shirefindsvalue @KarstResearch I learned recently that raw chickens nearing the sell-by date are seasoned and turned into rotisserie which definitely helps get the cost down. I’m still going to eat them

@KarstResearch I always wondered how the hell they got it so cheap. Maybe a loss leader.

Random, but the fact that I can go to my grocery store and purchase a rotisserie chicken for $6.99 is a modern miracle. 1300-1500 calories. 120-150g of protein. Raised, fed, butchered, transported, cooked, and stocked on the shelves. I can buy it for what is essentially pocket change at this point. Makes me grateful for how easy my life actually is

Fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck

$AAL is not going to go bankrupt… but they can miss their cash flow targets by a loooooot

@tompaja Hahahaha

@Pray4Equity scary ticker...prophetic maybe😂

Tencent trading on 11x FY26E P/E when you strip out the value of listed/unlisted investments. This is the company that owns WeChat, the digital operating system through which Chinese citizens conduct their daily lives and can't go without... $Tencent

@finphysnerd That’s what I strive for!

@Pray4Equity This is a fun idea.

cc @Tintincapital Likely doesn’t meet your hurdle but may find interesting!

Alternatively, (talking my book) this kinda demonstrates how valuable Reddit’s data is, if there is this product that exists to spoof it, it has to mean there is something there already… and realistically if this gets bad enough I imagine Reddit can sue these guys into the dirt à la Perplexity. Making an entire business model based off breaking ToS of multiple top internet platforms seems like it will eventually be a bad idea. @Reddit @Quora @Wikipedia tell your legal teams!

$RDDT short thesis

@compoundpapi Anytime man, anytime 🙌