Epsilon

@MEPPonPM @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket world peace

So in the past 24h we went from attack imminent to end of war peace deal imminent? Interesting timeline we live in. Sounds extremely fraudulent to me but well see.

@JexTrade @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketDevs Exciting... will have to check it out! 👀

New Feature Ship: Roles on JexTrade Trader profiles! Check out the roles for legendary Polymarket trader Domah All roles are community provided and edited!

@nickdevor_ Nice write-up; it's great to see others talking about it.

Read my story on UMA in Barron’s this week. On most newsstands in NYC

@crydevil_crypto Am curious how poly tweet knows my polymarket account, i’ve not linked it on my X 👀 Interesting product, though!

An OG is someone who wrote their first tweet about Polymarket before the 2024 U.S. presidential election I think Polymarket only became truly mainstream after that

@williamlegate @EpsilonPM BREAKING: Car expected to receive 0 $POLY

@williamlegate x.com/EpsilonPM/stat…

@EpsilonPM they both are

Slop posts are penalized, but breaking poly TOS & scamming are not ...?

@williamlegate Maybe you should monitor your affiliates better ... shoutout @CarOnPolymarket

me trying to explain my job

@evan_semet @CarOnPolymarket Welcome to the club!

well well well @CarOnPolymarket

@ithinkthisisgod 🤣😭

free money has turned into a great debt

@Eltonma 🤣

@EpsilonPM Well gamblers are generally bad persons, he is just slightly worse than regular, and generally when they get richer they act a little bit more decent, obviously he does not. lol

Polymarket will remove the affiliate badge of slop posters, but while @CarOnPolymarket performs dozenth pump & dump, he is still affiliated with the platform. Here is him trying to get people to buy into a market that has already resolved, but due to a bug is still tradeable.

@JakeTheLarp @Polymarket @mustafap0ly banger

Senior Intern @Polymarket, @mustafap0ly is settling markets using the 4% APR feature. Expect payouts in a few ten thousand days!

@alch3my101 @Kalshi So he increased your timeout for no reason? Sounds like he had a tantrum

My @Kalshi discord timeout got increased. I didn’t think this was a big deal, but I've been told it has kind of become one. So after requests from other mentioners, I figured I should make a post and clear things up. First off, I think this is largely a misunderstanding. Second, the moderator involved, Gatten, has always seemed like a great dude to me. I’ve never DM’d him, but he’s one of the three main mods I see often around the mentions category, and I’ve always respected him. That’s part of why this whole situation is confusing to me. The issue stems from a post I made in the Kalshi mentions discord last night. The post was deleted by Gatten, so unless someone happened to screenshot it, nobody can reference the exact wording anymore, including me. It was long winded with many ideas shared, as I do often. As far as I can remember, the core idea of the post was theoretical and said something like this: “Tonight if we had all just put bids at 10c instead of penny jumping each other at 90c, we probably would have made more. There was clearly a willing buyer on the other side. These are the kinds of things I think about.” Apparently there is a Discord rule stating: “This server channel is not a place for negotiating prices or requesting quotes.” From my understanding, Gatten perceived my post to violate this rule and issued the timeout. On my part, I genuinely did not know that rule existed, and even now, I don’t believe my comment violated it. But let’s assume for the sake of argument that it technically did. And who knows, maybe I said something else that clearly did. Who knows. Totally fine then, a timeout is fair enough. As many know, I talk a lot in the Discord about game theory, market dynamics, and how people behave in uncertain environments. I also strongly support traders helping each other to avoid obvious mistakes and mitigate risk. If that kind of discussion crosses a line under the rules, then I’ll avoid it going forward. What escalated this situation, however, were further comments made today by Gatten when pressed by other mentioners. In his explanation for the timeout, he apparently said: “He was timed out for encouraging breaking of server and Kalshi rules at a criminal level.” “He was encouraging group coordination and price manipulation.” I strongly disagree with those characterizations. Very strongly. Suggesting that my commentary about theoretical bidding behavior, in a chaotic prediction market, with imperfect information, and countless other players....suggesting that amounts to “criminal level” conduct is an enormous leap, especially when the original post itself no longer exists for people to independently evaluate. Furthermore, and perhaps most importantly, what makes this situation particularly strange is the lack of self-awareness shown. Mentions itself is the most chaotic and ambiguous environment on Kalshi. Mention traders exist in a world where: • Every event is effectively a 1 of 1 situation • Fair value is highly subjective even sometimes after a strike is said (or not said) • There are multiple mentions rules that contradict themselves between the short and full rules • Entire markets regularly hinge on edge case interpretations • Experienced mention traders frequently disagree on likely adjudications • Markets have traded and paused at extreme probabilities before (73c, 90c etc) and then resolved the other way because of unexpected rule interpretations or a missed strike • Kalshi occasionally applies rules inconsistently across markets • There is little to no transparency into how strikes are ultimately adjudicated • Almost every serious mention trader has been “rule cucked” at least once such that they were certain they were right, but the ruling went against them • There are multiple documented cases of "misresolves" Two small results of this environment are that: 1) Mention traders often sell their winning positions early not for liquidity reasons but rather to avoid the uncertainty that comes with settlement 2) Mention traders often buy positions that they believe are wrong because the price is smaller than the perceived chance that Kalshi will still rule in their favor All of this goes to show that Mentions is an ecosystem where uncertainty is constant and where discord discussions naturally become part analysis, part speculation, part philosophy, and part emotional support. In the middle of all that that came my post which did not seem different than many other things I have posted before. I could go deeper, and of course I have a lot more to say on this subject. But for now this is enough. The 24 hour timeout was not a big deal, but the later statements by Gatten are inappropriate and completely absurd. In my strong opinion, this entire situation is ultimately less about the timeout and more about the disconnect between how mentions traders experience these markets and how Kalshi moderates them.

@outcomenoble Crazy growth ... congrats man!! 🙌🙌🥳

50k PnL 100k next

@JakeTheLarp Thanks q! :)

I owe @EpsilonPM a public apology for my rudeness over the last few months. He’s actually a pretty cool guy.

*BREAKING: @mustafap0ly will investigate @CarOnPolymarket for scamming users out of their winnings. Car repeatedly told users their winnings on Poly will not be paid out in attempt to have them sell into his 99c bids. Car has a history of attempting to mislead users in the past.

@CarOnPolymarket Full thread with all of Car's pump & dumps coming soon!

@CarOnPolymarket At the same time, he is buying the other side... @williamlegate @shayne_coplan

@Fridge_Trader is this alpha about alpha

Sharing alpha publicly is usually negative EV. That’s why you won’t see me doing it. I don’t play -EV games.