Predict Time

FROM A $50 SALARY IN SYRIA TO A $6M ROUND Episode 5 of PredictTime is live, and you'll hear it from a founder who restarted from zero three times and never sent a single cold email to close his round @AliHabbabeh, founder and CEO of @xomarket. We go deep into why 400+ prediction markets are just copies of the same model, why a whale unfairly resolving his Polymarket bet became the tipping point, and how AI agents now decide market outcomes instead of humans Now he's building XO Market, where anyone can turn any idea into a conviction market. Everything you need to know about user-generated markets, XO Vaults and the future of prediction markets is in this episode --- Win 1,000 Conviction Points and get access to XO's weekly parlays with prizes up to $50,000 (we'll pick the winner on July 13): - sign up via the link: beta.xo.market/?r=xouser51107 -drop your username with your most creative comment or question about the episode and follow @predicttime_ and @xomarket --- Timecodes: 00:00 Intro 00:38 Raising $6M without pitching a single VC 04:29 Why not just copy Polymarket 07:05 Advice for builders: grants over VC money 12:15 Building a team across every continent 15:52 Ali's story: from Syria to Switzerland 19:29 Leaving corporate (Roche) for crypto 22:24 Why raising money is a liability, not a win 25:42 How XO Market conviction markets actually work 29:43 What stops thousands of dead markets 32:41 The tech that gives markets instant liquidity 37:43 How to create your own market 39:14 Getting attention: local communities & ambassadors 44:20 Not the pump.fun of prediction markets 48:22 Who decides the outcome: AI resolution 51:43 XO Vault: market making for everyone 56:47 The moment XO Market took off 1:02:14 Is prediction market usage exaggerated? 1:05:17 Elon Musk and mention markets 1:07:04 AI vs humans: jobs and the jury system 1:13:56 Are Polymarket & Kalshi overvalued? 1:16:16 What's next: Parlays, Vaults & the World Cup 1:23:06 Is XO Market becoming a sportsbook? 1:25:15 AI agents trading on their own 1:27:40 Regulation & staying permissionless 1:33:08 The investors: 20VC, Harry & a cricket legend 1:44:55 Will there be a token? 1:46:45 Blitz: rapid-fire round 1:52:59 Closing & giveaway

If your host doesn't look like this one, don't go to the interview

@Polymarket Wonder what happens if England wins the World Cup… "Jude Bellingham Kingdom" ? 😈

NEW: London unveils “Jude Bellingham Station” ahead of England’s World Cup semifinal against Argentina.

@degentalks @bcgame @BCEngineX “I just liked the odds” - the legendary strategy that sometimes beats the most complex models 😂 Let’s see if lucky number 9 works its magic today. Good luck with your prediction 🍀

Me after predicting the exact score because I liked the odds. C’est la vie, c’est le pari 🇫🇷

@vibhu X: “We know who you like. But let’s show you someone else instead” 😅

This new X algo sucks. Why am I seeing more tweets from people I don't like now?

@0xJonnyDee Agree 💯 Looks like Spain will be playing not only against France today, but also against us.

@predicttime_ Nobody seems to be backing Spain!

Tapas vs Escargot Sangria vs Champagne Flamenco vs Cancan Spain vs France This is the hardest game for me to call in the entire World Cup. I want Spain to win, but I think France will edge it. 2-1 to France, what do you think the score will be?

@sanjaybuilds_ @KASTxyz Great technique! That kind of ball control in a living room is already a different level. Today we’ll be cheering for France together! 🇫🇷

Who can do more keepy uppies than me in their living room? ⚽️ On a side note, if you pick the correct team to win in @KASTxyz app, you can 3X your cashback rewards! I have 12 out of 15 correct so far, I have been eating these rewards 😬

@Kalshi Many wanted this to be the final, but at least now we know - France or Spain will be fighting for the trophy in the final.

JUST IN: 60% chance France beats Spain today

@BagCalls @PredictEX Looks interesting. It's always good to see new platforms bringing different mechanics - it makes the whole space more competitive. Good luck with your Spain prediction 🍀

Using @PredictEX for a while now, and this week it's very good for the World Cup! Boosted prediction markets, early user points program live, and they're dropping up to $10k to top traders for the World Cup. Built by the ex BitMEX team that invented the perp, backed by VCs!! Got a boosted payout for Spain to take it! Let’s see how they do vs France! If you're trading the World Cup peep PredictEx!

@world_xyz Hopefully Messi won't let my future predictions down.

gm. you're welcome. MLS markets soon. let's cook

@j0hnwang Maybe it's time for @Kalshi to add a few hidden easter eggs too ✍️ The community would definitely enjoy it.

this pokemon easter egg on google is so sick

@girlnerd If this is what +2 followers looks like... now I'm curious what +200 will look like 🤩

how life starts feeling when you got 2 new followers

@WatcherGuru My grocery receipt hasn’t heard the news😅 This is what happens when the target is 2%, but everyone’s so worn out they’ll throw a party for anything below 4

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US inflation falls to 3.5%, lower than expectations.

@NotSoEasyMoney Finally, a religion everyone in crypto can agree on: hoping for the next meme season. Amen 🙏

I’d like to leave you all with a prayer for the memecoin trenches. To our lord n savior Ansem. May our bags continue to pump.

@melymel I like this final matchup! Although Messi fans might disagree with you right now.

As the World Cup is coming to an end this week, I hope to see France and England as the final two

@Route2FI This feature definitely adds more strategy to prediction markets. Great World Cup combo - hoping it hits🤞

Polymarket with a new feature (combos), and they're now giving out $50k daily to traders who has the biggest combo returns. The top 5 winning combos by % return split $50K daily until the end of July. Trying a combo with Argentina and France to 7.6x the money. Ngl, doing several picks in one is something I have missed from Polymarket, so I am glad they've finally launched that. NFA. DYOR.

@camolNFT This role shows how much crypto has evolved. Marketing is no longer just promotion - it’s community building and culture creation. Great opportunity. Already curious to see who they choose for this role.

PumpFun is hiring a Growth Marketing Lead. Salary is only $400,000-$1M and you have to live in NYC 🤮 Requirements: - Experience in scaling consumer product - Hands-on experience with UGC, clipping, and paid ads - Scrappy operator that has get shit done mentality - Move fast in ambiguity Unironically, a huge opportunity for someone that has a decent track record in consumer products + crypto and wants to spearhead growth for one of the biggest names in the industry.

@MarketBubble The difference between a product and a movement is the people behind it. Community is the real multiplier.

solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump IS A MOVEMENT "If I'm doing all the marketing, yeah it can work. I tweet a ton and I can direct attention. But if I have 100K people going out and doing stuff like this, that's different" "I think it can be a culture, a movement, a community thing that hasn't really existed in crypto and been done well at scale" "I want to get it in as many people's hands as possible. That's the whole idea"

@nikitabier Great update 👏 The timeline will finally look and feel the way it should.

We're rolling out a small tweak to boost visibility of your posts to your mutuals (people who you follow back). We noticed this data was missing from the algo and it made your friends appear less in your replies. This resulted in the reply section feeling more like a battleground with people you don't recognize. This should also help clusters form around interests more easily, which many people have asked for.

@MikeSilagadze The lesson is probably to think independently, not just follow the loudest narrative. What do you think today's "2011 gold" is ?

Back in 2011 a friend was telling me I should put 25% of my portfolio into gold. I didn't have any money then, but I said I'm not buying anything Glenn Beck is shilling to boomers on Fox. Gold was flat for the next ~12 years. Early this year I saw the same ads. Lesson there.