Predict Time

Episode 2 of Predict Time is now live - and this is a different level of conversation. @morganlai, founder of @arespro. The conversation goes deep - into where the next decade’s biggest shift is being born If you trade prediction markets - you can’t afford to skip this one

Here's what happened in prediction markets April 27 – May 4 1. The U.S. Senate unanimously banned senators and their staff from trading on prediction markets, effective immediately Both @Kalshi and Polymarket praised the decision and called for extending the ban to the House. The move came amid mounting insider trading concerns. Platforms are cheering on the regulation. 2. U.S. Army Special Forces Sgt. Gannon Van Dyke was arrested for using classified intel to place bets on @Polymarket He personally participated in the mission tied to the capture of Nicolás Maduro, then bet on the outcome. He won nearly $410,000. Federal prosecutors are now involved. 3. @HyperliquidX proposed adding prediction markets to its platform via HIP-4, now in public testing One of crypto's most active decentralized exchanges going head to head with Kalshi and Polymarket. And Polymarket didn't wait, launching 5-minute "HYPE up or down?" markets the same week. A prediction market about a prediction market platform. Very meta. 4. Kalshi launched a dedicated commodities section with contracts on gold, silver, and agricultural markets Watch marketplace Bezel became Kalshi's official data partner for all watch-price markets. From elections to Rolexes, prediction markets are moving well beyond politics The clock doesn't stop. See you next week

"Watch the odds on any prediction market in real time. A candidate's chances jump five points in an hour. On most venues you have no idea why. We're building the infrastructure that tells you. The headline, the leak, the rumor that moved the line." "If you know what's moving the odds, you don't just read the future. You can shape it." - @morganlai, Founder of @arespro

@boardyai @predicttime_ x.com/predicttime_/s…

Pitch me your company in 1 word.

"The internet doesn't see everything. A villager on the India border watching a conflict start in real time has information the rest of the world won't have for hours. Prediction markets turn that gap into money. You were there. You felt it. You get rewarded for being right." "Being physically present is becoming a financial advantage." - @morganlai, Founder of @arespro

No one’s gonna come and “give you a chance”, you just gotta understand that all there is - is you and your decisions and there’s no such thing as a “right moment” nice to hear @morganlai thoughts and emotions, i agree

@qwerty_ytrevvq @morganlai there is a lot to learn from her Enjoy!

@predicttime_ @morganlai i’ll be waiting, this one turned out really juicy watching right now i really like Morgan Lai charisma

@predikt_gg @solana Hey! how about coming on our podcast, Predict Time?

Prediction markets on @solana 🫡

@mikita_crypto @morganlai @shayne_coplan @williamlegate 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻

@morganlai If the big bosses @shayne_coplan and @williamlegate haven’t seen these success stories yet, then I don’t understand what the point of all this is This girl is capable of so much, she has done a lot and she will succeed

When I was 8 years old, growing up in Taipei, I called my aunt in San Francisco and asked: What is the best science and technology school in the world? She said MIT. I went on the internet, found it, and decided that was where I was going. All because of a Steven Spielberg movie about a little robot boy who wanted to find his mom. I grew up as an only child. What stayed with me from that movie was not just the technology. It was the possibility that one day, an artificial companion could understand how I felt. That was the first time I remember being moved by a technology that could change how humans experience reality. Years later, I did get to MIT. I studied AI before it became obvious. I became a machine learning engineer, built my first company, joined a $3.5B VC fund, left to build again, failed, started again, moved to New York alone, and built through one of the hardest crypto markets as a solo founder after the collapse of FTX. I kept going because I have always been drawn to technologies that change how humans understand the world. AI was the first version of that. Crypto and prediction markets are the next. I believe the future I am building toward is inevitable. The only question is whether I get to be one of the people who helps realize it. That future is a world where markets become information-first. The old model of trading was asset-first. It rewarded people with capital, financial education, institutional access, and better tools. But the next generation of markets will be shaped by information flow, narrative, attention, politics, culture, sentiment, and collective belief. Prediction markets make this shift obvious. They are one of the first asset classes where the value is informational, not purely financial in the traditional sense. Your edge does not have to come from technical analysis or a traditional finance background. Your edge can come from knowing something before it becomes consensus. From seeing reality shift before the market prices it in. Someone with firsthand knowledge of an unfolding event can have more alpha than an institution with a much bigger balance sheet. They turn belief into price. But price alone is not enough. Polymarket shows what the market thinks will happen. @Arespro is built to understand why the market is changing. We are building an information-first trading platform for prediction markets and other narrative-driven assets. One that does not just show traders what is moving, but helps them understand why odds are shifting, why narratives are forming, and why the future is moving in a certain direction. But the bigger vision is not just a better trading terminal. We want to turn every trade into an information object. Every position can become a piece of content. Every market view can become a signal. Every trader can build a reputation around conviction and accuracy. Most feeds rank information by engagement. Who got the most likes. Who already has the biggest audience. Markets allow us to rank information differently. How much are you willing to stake on what you believe? How often have you been right? That creates a fundamentally different kind of media feed. One powered by conviction, track record, and market incentives. One that becomes harder to fake. One that can help people understand not just what the market thinks will happen, but why reality is changing. I also believe prediction markets are one of the few markets where humans can still have a real edge over AI. AI knows what is already on the internet. But humans experience reality before it becomes data. We see things before they become headlines. We hear things before they become reports. We feel shifts before they become consensus. If those signals can be priced, organized, and made legible, then more people can gain access to financial opportunity, information agency, and power. That is what Ares is building toward. I spent years watching founders from the VC side of the table, always thinking: I wish that was me. Now it is. I talked about this journey and the thesis behind Ares in my conversation with @klimonchain on @predicttime_ If you are building, trading, investing, or thinking deeply about prediction markets and information markets, I would love for you to watch it. And if you want to collaborate on what we are building, contribute to the vision, or join the team, we are always open to exceptional people across functions. DMs are open.

@morganlai Just read this story Just look at what this girl has achieved What will you achieve? She is already on her way to her goal​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​🙌

@nikil @shayne_coplan We’re open to having anyone on our podcast about prediction markets - just let us know

100 top founders & execs The Future of Finance: AI x Crypto Alchemy CoBuild April 28, NYC Livestream for all 👇

@j0xnah @shayne_coplan the smoothest upgrade and a full economic rewire on the same day - that’s not a coincidence, that’s a thesis. this kind of thinking is exactly what inspired us to build @predicttime_

@dimahorshkov Hey! how about coming on our podcast, Predict Time?

Same values, new identity. Welcome new Limitless

@arrakis_ai 🤜🤛

This GPT Image 2 prompt is going insanely viral right now. “Redraw the attached image in the most clumsy, scribbly, and utterly pathetic way possible. Use a white background, and make it look like it was drawn in MS Paint with a mouse. It should be vaguely similar but also not really, kind of matching but also off in a confusing, awkward way, with that low-quality pixel-by-pixel feel that really emphasizes how ridiculously bad it is. Actually, you know what, whatever, just draw it however you want.”

"From MIT to a $3.5B VC fund. People ask how that happens for an engineer. The answer is you build first. I started as an ML engineer, then founded a company doing AI for sales and customer conversations. By the time I was investing, I'd already been on the other side of the table." - @morganlai, Founder of @arespro

Congrats to @xomarket on their $6M seed. Led by @20vcFund and @picuscap, with @cbventures and 30+ angels including @patcummins30." "Permissionless conviction markets. Spin up a Yes/No on any belief in seconds. The next layer beyond prediction markets." If you want to see @AliHabbabeh on the show as a guest, leave a comment

Morgan Lai – From MIT to $3.5B VC to Building @arespro Full episode on YouTube: youtu.be/9P4Oa9Dnn-Y

"The holy grail of ARES is to become the first information-first financial trading platform. Not just a web app, a mobile app too. Our holy grail is to be the next generation of @RobinhoodApp." "But the next Robinhood isn't a list of assets you scroll and trade. That model is broken. Asset prices today are driven by speculation and narrative more than fundamentals. Tesla's price tomorrow depends more on what Elon tweets than on its last S1." - @morganlai, Founder of @arespro