Don Durrett - goldstockdata.com@DonDurrett
Friday Recap
AU: $4330 ($4528 - Last Week) - - (2025: +63%) (ATH $4550 Dec)
AG: $72.77 (77.86) - - (2025: +142%) (ATH $77.86 Dec)
HUI: 701 (747) - - (2025: +144%) (ATH 747 Dec)
DXY: 98.4 (97.6)
S&P: 6858 (6929) - - (2025: +17%) (ATH 6939 Oct)
10-Yr: 4.19% (4.12%)
Oil: 57 (56)
It's the first Friday of 2026. Gold was down $200 over the past week. All of this occurred on Monday and mostly on Sunday night. The same with silver, which was down $5 for the week, and all of it on Monday. The HUI (gold miners index) was smacked 46 points, but was still up 144% for the year.
The bottom line for 2025 was this: silver and the HUI broke out in August and joined the bull market party with gold, which broke out in March 2024. We had to wait 16 months for that outcome, but it was hugely important. Those three bull markets are not going to end anytime soon. However, we are still waiting for the final battle to be won, which will result in a fear trade. That final battle is the S&P 500, which we wait to conclude. Once the S&P stops rising, a fear trade will emerge. That's when we win the war. My guess is we will have to wait about 4 or 5 more months (perhaps less). We have already waited 4 months since we won our last battle in August. We have been waiting since 2013 (when this HUI bear market started), so what's a few more months?
I want the prize, which is a 2000 HUI. We can't get there without a fear trade where Wall Street finally wants to own gold and silver miners. It's nice to be up more than 150%, but that's not good enough. Not even close. So, we need a fear trade like we had from 2002 to 2011. I'm confident it's coming. The bad news is that when it arrives, it will come with a jolt. We can expect the S&P to pull down gold around 12%, silver 18%, and the HUI 22%. Those are just ballpark guesses, but it will be in that territory. The good news is that this correction will be short-lived, with gold rebounding and heading higher. Much higher. My $6,000 target is likely way too conservative, as is my $150 silver target.
While we wait for the S&P to stop rising, silver will be a fun drama story to watch. As I expected, once silver broke out, supply issues would arise. There will be no putting this genie back in the bottle. Silver supply issues are not going away. The only question is how governments will respond, along with the volatility that will ensue. As investors, we win. We will have to endure the volatility, but the end result will be higher prices. Got Silver?
