PrivateCreditGuy

113 posts

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PrivateCreditGuy

PrivateCreditGuy

@PrivCreditGuy

Former VP at $30B+ private credit fund

Miami, FL Katılım Ocak 2022
45 Takip Edilen263 Takipçiler
PrivateCreditGuy
PrivateCreditGuy@PrivCreditGuy·
@WSJ That is because Oil tankers just now stopped arriving to destination ports and countries are emptying inventories. Demand destruction is now occurring which is why $BNO is up 10% in the last 5 days Therefore, the impact to economies typically lags by a few weeks / months
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PrivateCreditGuy
PrivateCreditGuy@PrivCreditGuy·
It appears the Iran war is back on Iran has struck oil targets in the UAE and boats attempted to cross the Strait as part of Project Freedom $BNO just hit $60 and is well on its way to $70 Somehow $BTC found a way to hit $80k during all of this but was met with sharp resistance. I anticipate a small pullback, and thus $SOL looks like a good short term short trade given its relative weakness (chart is pitiful) Next few days will be interesting, especially if US retaliates (they apparently already have by “eliminating” six Iran small boats)
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter

BREAKING: Iran has targeted commercial and US military ships with cruise missiles, per Reuters.

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PrivateCreditGuy
PrivateCreditGuy@PrivCreditGuy·
“Everyone is acknowledging we will be in a higher-volatility regime, but they are not acknowledging credit is actually the typical safer place to be” John Zito, Apollo Asset Management, believes credit is the safest place to be in an uncertain, disruptive tech environment…
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Bingleton
Bingleton@Curvaciuos·
@PrivCreditGuy @elonmusk @PeterDiamandis I don’t think he means it in a literal “I want this much in my bank” most of his net worth is a reflection of the type of value he’s creating. To reach a 10T net worth through his companies he literally has to reach certain goals, with a self sustaining city on mars being one.
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Peter H. Diamandis, MD
Peter H. Diamandis, MD@PeterDiamandis·
.@elonmusk just crossed $800 billion — roughly 2.7% of the entire US GDP. The last person to hold that much of the American economy? John D. Rockefeller in 1913. It took a century for anyone to match him. Rockefeller had oil. Musk has the future.
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PrivateCreditGuy
PrivateCreditGuy@PrivCreditGuy·
@elonmusk @PeterDiamandis I thought $ won’t matter in the not distance future due to AI and that there is no point in saving for retirement anymore
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Michael
Michael@BigGovSucks2026·
@HormuzLetter Ok or what then? Within minutes Iran loses their oil infrastructure. To me it’s the only way to end this. There will be no deal. Take away their check book for years to come is the only viable option left. Sucks for the Iranian people.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: The IRGC has given Trump a 30-day deadline to lift the naval blockade, saying the US has been "pushed into a corner" and Trump's options are "an impossible military operation or a bad deal." This is the first time Iran has set an explicit deadline on US action.
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PrivateCreditGuy
PrivateCreditGuy@PrivCreditGuy·
S&P headed to 7700 by EOY - Tom Lee @fundstrat “We’ve come out the other side of this Iran War, earnings were strong… I think the software underwriting from private credit is better than expected, $IGV has rebounded”
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threadguy
threadguy@notthreadguy·
if the market pumped this hard on fake ceasefire announcements imagine what happens when it’s real
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PrivateCreditGuy
PrivateCreditGuy@PrivCreditGuy·
“This is by far and away the biggest energy crisis that anyone alive today has ever experienced” - @ericnuttall “We see oil future prices going to $150 / barrel in the coming days/weeks. Not months or quarters…. soon” Just an FYI that oil futures are expected to open down Monday to $106 based on your regular Sunday cadence of fake reports that the Iran conflict is resolved $BNO $USO
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Anthony Pompliano 🌪
Anthony Pompliano 🌪@APompliano·
Anthropic is now reportedly doing $44 billion in annual revenue. That means they added $14 billion in the last 30 days. Almost half a billion dollars in revenue PER DAY. Insane.
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PrivateCreditGuy
PrivateCreditGuy@PrivCreditGuy·
Who is lying? Steve Eisman - “private equity bought software companies that are now worth less than half… the equity value has been obliterated” Blue Owl $OBDC - “LTV ratios of our software loans are up 30-40% on average… a lot of spring and cushion” How is this possible? The math ain’t mathin
PrivateCreditGuy tweet media
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PrivateCreditGuy
PrivateCreditGuy@PrivCreditGuy·
@MindTheGapMTG Both are right in their own minds, but cannot being correct at the same time Either the public equity marks are wrong (based on millions of investors) Or the private debt marks are wrong (based on one party marking their own book)
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Chen Avnery
Chen Avnery@MindTheGapMTG·
@PrivCreditGuy Both are right. Eisman looks at market-implied equity. Blue Owl marks their own book. The gap lives in who's actually verifying the underlying docs and covenant data. Manager-reported marks can diverge from reality for years before anyone checks the math.
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PrivateCreditGuy
PrivateCreditGuy@PrivCreditGuy·
@WallStRollup Equity values are less than half, yet lenders are saying LTVs are only up 30-40%? So who is lying?
PrivateCreditGuy tweet media
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Wall Street Rollup
Wall Street Rollup@WallStRollup·
Steve Eisman on the issues in Software lending in Private Credit: “When it’s time to get them refinanced, who’s going to want to lend to them when the equity is less than half?” “The equity value has been obliterated.”
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PrivateCreditGuy
PrivateCreditGuy@PrivCreditGuy·
And it begins… Brown University cuts stake in Blue Owl private credit fund by over 50% $OBDC If institutional investors start pulling out, there is going to be a liquidity crisis investing.com/news/stock-mar…
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Keşfet

@WSJ @zerohedge @Curvaciuos @elonmusk @PeterDiamandis @BigGovSucks2026 @HormuzLetter @fundstrat