Proflex Finance

You Held $AMD for years. It performed well. Really well. But selling means a big tax bill. And holding means that capital just sits there while the market takes leaps and bounces. There is a third option where you create income from your appreciated stock. Here is how it works. 🧵

What's moving the markets? •⁠ ⁠Markets are up with the Dow hitting a record high for the first time since the Iran war began up, as investors grow optimistic about progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks heading into the long weekend. •⁠ ⁠Trump swore in Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair today, signaling a push for rate cuts even as 30-year Treasury yields touched their highest since 2007: Bond markets are pricing in persistent inflation from elevated oil ($100+ Brent) and a hawkish stance for the rest of the year. •⁠ ⁠Quantum computing stocks (Rigetti +23%, D-Wave +20%) and cybersecurity names are leading the tape, while gas prices stay sticky above $4 in all 50 states ahead of Memorial Day as the Iran-driven energy shock lingers.

@KobeissiLetter Have been highlighting it for weeks, sustainability is fragile for this phenomenon, we did a small deep-dive, hope it helps. x.com/ProflexFinance…

The stock-bond relationship is showing a rare pattern: The 2-month correlation between US equities and the 10-year Treasury yield is down to -0.70, the lowest since 1999. In other words, over the last 2 months, stocks and the 10-year Treasury yield have moved in opposite directions by the largest extent this century. At the start of 2026, a positive correlation of 0.40 was observed, near the highest since 2023. Additionally, the 30-day correlation is down to -0.68, also the lowest in 27 years. Not even the 2022 bear market saw such a negative correlation, as the 10-year yield rose, driven by elevated inflation and Fed rate hikes, while stocks fell. Bond markets are incredibly important right now.

@awealthofcs It's a phenomenon for sure, but the question is sustainability which is lower, data shows. We've done a small breakdown, hope it adds value: x.com/ProflexFinance…

Everyone is freaking out about rising government bond yields...except for the stock market Rising yields on 30 year govt bonds and rising stock prices in both Japan and the US What if bond yields are just normalizing for a higher growth/inflation world?

So where does this land? Stock prices and bond yields are on a collision course as ZH rightly put it. One of them has to break. Based on the last 40 years of data, it's usually equities that blink first. Poor breadth. Rising yields. Widening credit spreads. A Fed that's trapped. And the only thing keeping the rally alive is a narrow group of AI and semiconductor stocks that are extremely overbought. The risk/reward for being long here is poor. And when US equities correct, non-US markets will follow. Source: Arthur Budaghyan, BCA Research Follow @ProflexFinance for daily breakdowns on markets, macro, and institutional strategy. All crowdsourced from the world's leading analysts. Clear. Actionable. No fluff. #Investing #FinancialMarkets

Emerging markets are even more fragile. Strip out hardware tech (basically a few giant Asian chip makers), and EM share prices are well below their previous highs. The rally there is even narrower than in the US. EM local-currency bond yields are rising. Their currencies have failed to strengthen versus the dollar despite six weeks of global risk-on. Energy and food price shocks hit mainstream EM economies far harder than developed markets. US households hold stocks worth 250% of disposable income. A record. Consumer spending and AI capex are being fueled by elevated share prices. If equities drop, spending drops, capex gets cut, and the whole feedback loop reverses. BCA's view: only a meaningful drawdown in stocks can unleash the disinflationary forces needed to actually bring bond yields down. #EmergingMarkets #GlobalMacro

We've been saying it for weeks. Stock prices and bond yields can't keep rising together. Eventually one of them breaks. Don't take our word for it. Let's validate it with 40 years of market data. The S&P is at all-time highs. The 10-year yield is pushing toward 5%. Both moving up, simultaneously. And everyone seems fine with it. They shouldn't be. Because over the last 40 years, every single bond bear market ended with turmoil in the economy or financial markets. Every one. No exceptions. Here's the full breakdown. 🧵 #Stocks #Bonds #Markets

So what's actually happening? The market is doing two things at once — resetting crowded positioning while keeping the secular AI story intact. Both are true. The index is fine. The popular trades got flushed. The fundamentals haven't cracked. The macro is a headwind, not a breakdown. The risk is that the unwind feeds on itself and pulls everything lower. The opportunity is that this reset makes room for the next leg higher. Source & Due Credits: Bloomberg MLIV, Jan Patrick Barnert Follow @ProflexFinance to peel back the layers on finance, markets, and investing: the stuff that actually matters, explained so anyone can act on it.

If you need one data point to understand why the AI story isn't going anywhere, it's this. Google's I/O event dropped a stat that's hard to ignore: → Two years ago: 9.7 trillion tokens processed per month → One year ago: 480 trillion → Now: 3.2 quadrillion tokens per month That's not a hype cycle. That's scaling of a kind we've rarely seen in tech history. Positioning can reset. Crowded trades can unwind. But the underlying demand curve? It's vertical. And that's the part that matters for anyone thinking beyond the next two weeks.

The S&P dropped 2% last week & took a breather. You probably scrolled past it. Felt like nothing. But underneath that -2%, some of the most popular trades on Wall Street just got taken out back. Semis, memory stocks, high-beta momentum pairs: all punished. Nomura's McElligott nailed it: "Spooz only a modest -2%, but clearly we're seeing nerves in the crowded winners." The index looks fine. The positions inside it don't. 🧵 What's actually going on ↓

@Hedgeye This is still one end of the road. Call volume, combined with Market's Systematic Setup is Interesting to watch. We covered it here with charts in 10 tweets, hope helps. x.com/ProflexFinance…

S&P 500 total call volume hits a new all-time high

$IGV Software Squeeze Is Loading 🚨 • Mutual funds sitting at their LOWEST Software exposure since 2012 while Semis overweight hit +49bp — the coil is tight • $IGV pressing the $94/$95 breakout level with a fresh bullish 21/100-day crossover just triggered — last time this setup fired, the move accelerated hard • Hedge funds already quietly rotating INTO Software while cutting Semis — smart money is front-running the mutual fund chase before it starts JPM flagged IGV June 95/102 call spreads at ~4x max payout for a reason The trend line break is the trigger. Watch $94/$95 closely #Software #IGV #Equities #Tech #Trading

SHARP REVERSAL What's moving the markets? •⁠ ⁠Stocks spiked and oil slid after Al Arabiya reported a final draft US-Iran agreement, with key terms including an immediate ceasefire, guaranteed freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and gradual lifting of U.S. sanctions, flipping market sentiment marginally positive. •⁠ ⁠Weekly jobless claims dropped to 209,000, below estimates, keeping the labor market firm and pushing rate cut expectations further out as Treasury yields climb alongside oil prices. •⁠ ⁠Nvidia posted $81.6B in quarterly revenue, beat EPS, and guided next quarter to $91B, yet the stock is giving back gains despite a genuinely strong print as investors rotate out of the name into the broader rally. Credits: @LiveSquawk

NVDA and AAPL are coming next. If you are sitting on a concentrated AMD position and want to explore whether this fits your portfolio, feel free to reach out or visit us at embarkfunds.com Happy to walk through it. #AMD #EmbarkFunds #PrivateInvesting #LongTermInvesting #StructuredCapital

Here is what it looks like in practice. You keep your AMD position. You invest through a structured private vehicle. You earn consistent income. Your capital starts working again. All without selling a single share.

You Held $AMD for years. It performed well. Really well. But selling means a big tax bill. And holding means that capital just sits there while the market takes leaps and bounces. There is a third option where you create income from your appreciated stock. Here is how it works. 🧵