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PropsMadness
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PropsMadness
@propsmadness
We give you the numbers, you make the call. Now available on the App Store (iOS) and Google Play (Android).
Katılım Aralık 2023
342 Takip Edilen8.8K Takipçiler
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WORLD CUP BEST BETS 🏆 (7/14)
🍽️ 1u 𝐊𝐲𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐌𝐛𝐚𝐩𝐩é 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟎.𝟓 𝐆𝐨𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐰/ 𝐄𝐓 (+100)
🍽️ 1.5u 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐓𝐨 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 (-150)
Cooked w/ @betsbybray 🤝 @TheGr8Picks
LIKE IF TAILING ❤️
Mbappe 📝
This one almost does not need a writeup. We will back Mbappé in any matchup at this price. He dominated throughout the season with Madrid and has carried that form into the World Cup, scoring 8 goals across 6 matches.
These teams met in an absolute thriller last year that ended 5-4, with Mbappé finding the net. He has also scored twice in matches with Simón in goal and once against a back line featuring Cubarsí this season.
Mbappé has faced Cubarsí four times and scored in 3 of those meetings, totaling 5 goals. In a match where the margins will be razor-thin, that familiarity with Spain’s defensive personnel can only help.
France 📝
Spain will be France’s biggest test of the tournament, but they have looked below their usual standard. They will control possession and create opportunities, but their inability to consistently capitalize on those chances leaves them vulnerable.
France has been ruthless throughout the World Cup, combining defensive discipline with explosive attacking quality. They have consistently found ways to control matches, generate big chances, and punish opponents for mistakes.
Spain’s possession-based approach will test France, but it may also leave space for Mbappé and the rest of this attack to strike in transition. France has the pace, finishing quality, and defensive structure to survive a close match and book its place in the World Cup Final.
S/O @TheGr8Picks for the writeups!
📊 Data via @propsmadness - use code PROPKITCHEN for 25% off your first purchase!
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#WorldCup #SoccerPicks #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #GamblingX

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PropsMadness makes it so easy to research player props in seconds. The IOS app is game changing, giving you the freedom to lab any sport on the go 🔥
Sign up using code “PC” for 25% off your first subscription!
propsmadness.com/?ref=PropCaddie



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❤️ OG Post if you appreciate these daily! Brought by film watching & @propsmadness 🫡
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Here is EVERYTHING you NEED to know if you are BETTING on #WNBA player props for July the 13th 🏀🧵
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WNBA DUBEL 🏀
• Maria Conde 3+ A
• Nalyssa Smith 11+ P
@ 3.06
Maria Conde:
• 9 asyst ostatnio, 10 potencjalnych
• 7/L10 pokrycie
• Toronto bez Sykes, Rice + Sabally quest
• NYL 5 najgorszy def vs asysty total, 5 najgorszy vs pozycja
• 2 ballhandler za Allemand
Smith:
• 52% punktów paint - Indiana 2 najgorsza defensywa
• Indiana nie radzi sobie z wjazdami pod kosz
• 2 najgorsza defensywa vs transition, najgorsza vs FT, 2 najgorsza vs postup
• 11/15 zawodniczek o podobnym profilu pokrywało linię

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UPDATE on my Home run betting, tracked by @betstamp
Continued winning at the same rate, now a total of 300 bets (tracked last 181) with a 10% ROI only vs Fanduel, DK, Pinn.
I'm just playing around with @propsmadness data for an hour or 2 every day, never watched an MLB game or made a bet prior to May 2026.
Mostly looking at the matchups, then checking closing lines in similar matchup/conditions, and taking the ones that look off.
Still a pretty small sample size for a high-variance market like Home runs, but lines still move in my direction on like 80%+ of bets, and overall getting positive CLV (like 2-3%)

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A. Burleson vs JR Ritchie — matchup overview
→ Ritchie vs LHB has been a rocket-launch disaster: 6th percentile Avg EV (91.1 mph allowed!), 11th BB% (13.9% walk rate — catastrophic control), 17th HardHit% (45.5%), 18th HR rate (2.1/9), 20th xwOBA (.367), 20th HR/FB%, 21st ISO, 23rd xSLG, 24th Barrel%. Free passes plus loud contact from every angle
→ Pitch mix has Burleson crushing the entire arsenal. Ritchie throws Curveball 28%, Fastball 24%, Changeup 22%. Burleson OBLITERATES the Curveball (.419 BA, .806 SLG, .548 wOBA — 93rd–95th percentile), destroys the Fastball (.318 BA, .561 SLG, .411 wOBA — 82nd–83rd), and destroys the Changeup (.333 BA, .526 SLG, .383 wOBA — 85th–87th). No neutralizer visible in the top three pitches
→ Burleson vs RHP has an elite platoon profile: 97th percentile xwOBA (.396), 97th xSLG (.553), 93rd BA (.309), 90th ISO (.244), 90th HardHit% (49.5%), 84th HR rate (4.7%), 84th Barrel% (12.4%), 83rd Avg EV, 76th HR/FB%, 64th BB%. First H2H meeting.

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S. Stewart vs Matthew Boyd — matchup overview
→ Boyd vs RHB has been a rocket-launch disaster: 8th percentile HardHit% (48.8%!), 9th Barrel% (13.1%), 12th Avg EV (90.3 mph), 13th xSLG (.477 allowed), 18th BA (.287 against), 19th xwOBA (.349), 32nd ISO, 39th HR rate (1.3/9), 50th HR/FB%. Elite command (67th BB%) but the quality of contact absolutely torches him. Great American Ball Park is a launch pad tonight (HR +23%, Runs +13%) — massive tailwind on every flyball
→ Pitch mix kill spot is the Fastball at heavy usage. Boyd is fastball-dominant — Fastball 52%. Stewart absolutely OBLITERATES it — putting up .333 BA, .889 SLG, .563 wOBA (81st–97th percentile). More than half of what Boyd throws lands squarely in Stewart's kill zone. Limited visibility on the rest of the arsenal but the primary offering points to loud damage
→ Stewart vs LHP has an elite power profile: 94th percentile Barrel% (16.4%), 90th xSLG (.510), 89th HR rate (5.7%), 87th ISO (.242), 86th xwOBA (.366), 85th HR/FB% (16.2%), 85th BB% (14.1%), 73rd BA (.275), 73rd Avg EV, 65th HardHit%. First H2H meeting.

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Thank you all for your insane reads today I really appreciate you!!!!💰🤝 @BlackMambaDFS @zachreger18 @PropCaddie @sloprules @propsmadness
3-leg HR parlay cashed✅ (+19564 odds w/ 25% FD boost):
Kyle Karros💣 +900
Casey Schmitt💣 +420
Yordan Alvarez💣 +276

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PropsMadness retweetledi

🇳🇴⚔️🏴
✅ Kane scored in 8 straight games vs the best teams in the world (top 25 in ELO rank)
✅ Haaland scored 7 goals in the last 4 vs top teams
✅ Both have delivered in the big moments so far
Who is coming on top tonight?!👀
Follow @propsmadness for more data like this!

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Kumar Rocker vs Yordan Alvarez - matchup overview
→ Rocker vs LHB has catastrophic contact quality leaks: 4th percentile HardHit% (50.4% allowed), 5th Avg EV (91.2 mph), 19th xSLG (.476), 22nd xwOBA (.362), 30th BA (.274), 31st Barrel%. He limits home runs at a more moderate rate (46th HR/FB%) and controls ISO somewhat (42nd), but the raw contact quality is among the hardest hit in baseball - lefties are absolutely squaring Rocker up. Globe Life Field reads pitcher-friendly tonight (HR -11%, Runs -7%) with the roof closed - the park suppresses damage, though it can't fully offset a 5th percentile Avg EV allowed.
→ Pitch mix kill spots are Sinker and Fastball. Rocker throws Slider 37%, Sinker 23%, Fastball 15%, Cutter 15%. Alvarez OBLITERATES the Sinker (.400 BA, .833 SLG, .569 wOBA - 90th-98th percentile) and destroys the Fastball (.316 BA, .684 SLG, .473 wOBA - 81st-95th percentile). The Slider (37% - most-used pitch) is a solid damage zone too (.281 BA, .625 SLG, .426 wOBA - 80th-91st percentile). The Cutter (15%) is the only neutralizer. There is essentially no safe pitch to throw Alvarez - three of Rocker's four offerings grade as kill spots.
→ Alvarez vs RHP is the best profile in baseball: 99th percentile xwOBA (.460), 99th xSLG (.689), 99th ISO (.323), 98th BA (.327), 98th BB% (17.4%), 97th HR rate (7.2%), 97th Barrel% (19.2%), 96th HardHit% (54.4%), 96th Avg EV (92.4 mph), 90th HR/FB% (16.4%). Every single contact quality and on-base metric is at the absolute ceiling of the sport - and Rocker is throwing his three main pitches into kill spots on 75% of all plate appearances.

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Griffin Jax vs Dominic Canzone - matchup overview
→ Jax vs LHB has real power leaks: 17th percentile xSLG (.484 allowed), 22nd Barrel% (10.7%), 23rd xwOBA (.361), 23rd HR/FB%, 31st HR rate (1.6/9). He limits BA decently (49th) and controls walks (59th BB%), and the HardHit% is middling (51st) - but the barrel rate and power suppression metrics consistently bleed damage. Tropicana Field reads pitcher-friendly tonight (HR -3%, Runs -6%, 1B -8%) with the roof closed - the park is the main headwind, though Jax's underlying power profile still provides the edge.
→ Pitch mix kill spots are Fastball and Curveball. Jax throws Changeup 30%, Fastball 20%, Slider 16%, Curveball 13%. Canzone OBLITERATES the Fastball (.328 BA, .655 SLG, .440 wOBA - 84th-92nd percentile) and destroys the Curveball (.278 BA, .722 SLG, .452 wOBA - 69th-90th percentile). The Changeup (30% - most-used pitch) is the elite neutralizer - Canzone whiffs at 32.3% against it and sits at .170 BA, .208 wOBA. Jax will live on the changeup to survive, but the fastball and curveball together account for 33% of his pitches and Canzone is locked in on both.
→ Canzone vs RHP is an elite power profile: 95th percentile xSLG (.530), 94th ISO (.269), 93rd HR rate (5.9%), 93rd Barrel% (15.7%), 90th xwOBA (.368), 88th Avg EV (90.6 mph), 87th HardHit% (47.8%), 87th HR/FB% (15.5%), 71st BA (.264). The barrel rate and xSLG stand out most - Canzone squares up pitches and drives them at an elite clip, and Jax's two kill-spot pitches come in on a third of all plate appearances.

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THE MEATBALL MENU - July 11th ⚾️
Some power spots across tonight's board🔥
Bello vs LHB (-6% HR)
Targets: Soto
Buehler vs RHB (-1% HR)
Targets: Okamoto
G. Jaxx vs LHB (-3% HR)
Targets: Canzone
Rocker vs LHB (-11% HR)
Targets: Y. Alvarez
❤️Tap if these breakdowns help your research!
Full breakdowns ⬇️

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PropsMadness retweetledi

THE MEATBALL MENU - July 10th⚾️
Four lefty bats, four bombs 💣
Littell vs LHB (+14% HR)
Targets: B. Rice
NOLA vs LHB (+0% HR)
Targets: K. Carpenter
Civil vs LHB (+11% HR)
Targets: C. Montgomery
G. Rodriguez vs LHB (-4% HR)
Targets: K. Clemens
Tap ❤️ if these breakdowns help your research!
Full breakdowns ⬇️

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