PropsMadness

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FADE OF THE DAY 👎 5/25 MLB #2: Matthew Liberatore UNDER 15.5 Outs #STLCards vs #ThisIsMyCrew LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ • Liberatore has been struggling this season and now he faces an amped up Brewers team who was just finished out a series with the Dodgers. • This is a bad matchup for him since the Brewers are a bottom 5 K% standing at 20.3% of total pitch counts but thus means that we will have to be using more pitches per plate appearance since the Brewers are unlikely to strikeout, especially with Liberatore striking out a 19% this season. • He is under this line in 6/L10 games, but he has only cleared this line once in his history with the Brewers (despite starting as a relief pitcher for the start of his career). • Another thing to pay attention to is how bad Liberatore has been against LHBs this season, allowing a .373 BAA where the Brewers are loaded in lefties. Against lefties, in his L15 AB, he is allowing an average EV of nearly 94 mph meaning that he is almost getting barreled or he is allowing a ton of contact • This game is also on the road for Liberatore, a metric where he is very poor, going under this line in 3/L12 games averaging 14.9 outs/game. • Overall, he gets a bad matchup, on the road, against a team who is great against lefties. This is a matchup where he should get shelled, the Brewers should be able to rack up the pitch count, then force him off the mound in 5 innings. Best Odds: -110 FD Turn on the 🛎️ so you don't miss any plays! 📊: @propsmadness

@betsbybray Looks great my man!

@JFar2Nice Love the Freeman pick, he's so due.

Some late night bombs for fun

Definitely an interesting angle. His volume has gone from 5.2 3PA in the regular season to 2.8 3PA in the playoffs.

@kmcanard 😂😂😂

@propsmadness Absolutely NOT

Much has been made about Harden’s playoff performances throughout his career. He is, however, o17.5 pts in 12/15 games this season when he plays between 34-42 mins with Mobley, Mitchell and Allen in the lineup. 🤔 Do you trust Harden to deliver in an elimination game?

@TheLineupPro Completely agree! Volume just too high for this line

@propsmadness The encouraging part isn’t really the 12/15 hit rate, it’s the shot volume. He’s taken 15, 15, 16 FGA in this series. If that role holds in an elimination game, 17.5 is very live even without great efficiency.

RED HOT BATS 🔥 5/25 MLB #1: Yandy Diaz OVER 1.5 HRR #RaysUp vs #Birdland LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Collab w/ @PropKitchen 🤝 @AltLineDemon • Yandy Díaz is in a great spot to keep producing against the Orioles today. Diaz has been swinging it well lately, going over this line in 4 of his last 5 games while averaging 4.4 HRR in that stretch. He’s been one of the more consistent bats in this Rays lineup, and this is the matchup where his profile sets up extremely well. • His 2026 splits have been elite: 📈 .315 AVG 📈 .367 wOBA 📈 .896 OPS • He’s also been strong against right-handed pitching, batting .308 with a .367 wOBA vs RHP this season. • The matchup against Kyle Bradish is one that Yandy has DOMINATED historically. In 24 plate appearances against Bradish, Diaz is 10/24 with a .455 AVG, .500 OBP, and 5 RBIs. Bradish has also been vulnerable to right-handed bats this season, allowing a 6.75 ERA and .338 BAA to RHB. • The pitch mix lines up really well for Diaz. Bradish throws his sinker 30.2% of the time, and Diaz owns a .436 wOBA against sinkers. He also throws his slider 28.7% of the time, and Diaz has crushed that pitch as well with a .443 wOBA. • Bradish leans heavily on breaking balls overall, throwing them 50.7% of the time. Against pitchers with a 34%+ breaking ball rate, Diaz has gone over this line in 11 of 12 games while averaging 3.3 HRR. • Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 2nd in batting average and 8th in OPS this season, so Diaz should have plenty of opportunities to either get on base, score, or drive runners in with quality bats around him. • Overall, Diaz is hot, his season profile is strong, and the matchup against Bradish lines up perfectly with the pitches he handles best. With the H2H success, strong RHP split, and a Rays offense that has been producing, we like Diaz to clear this line again. Best Odds: -133 DK Turn on the 🛎️ so you don't miss any plays! 📊: @propsmadness

@JBookie22 Saw it in theatres when it first released. 👴

Who’s watched this movie?

@propsmadness Surely yes

All eyes on Wemby tonight as he tries to lead the Spurs to even the series vs. OKC. 👀 Wemby has scored o24.5 pts in 15/20 games this season when playing between 32-42 mins with Fox and Castle in the lineup. Can he deliver yet again in the most important game of the year? 🧐

@propsmadness Love to see it, let’s goooo

My #MLB Home Run Picks Today 💣 - Riley Greene (+520) - Game 1 - Alec Burleson (+375) - Hunter Goodman (+360) Sundays have been good to us… we need that here 🙏

@betsbybray 💪💪

MESSICK MASTERCLASS 💥 May 23rd MLB #1: Parker Messick OVER 5.5 K #GuardsBall vs #RingTheBell LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ • Messick has been on a tear this season averaging 6.4 K/game but that is not what we are after in this matchup. I am taking this play solely based on the fact that he is playing against the Phillies who are striking out at a 25% rate against LHPs this season and Messick is posting a 28.3% K%. • Messick has never faced this Philly team which usually gives pitchers an advantage as the batters do not know what the pitch arsenal is like until the watch film or they are actually up to bat for the first time and even then, it's too late. • Messick throws 4 main pitches: Fastball (30%), Changeup (25%), Sinker (15%), and Curveball (11%). Now while these pitch types aren't unusual, Messick generates ELITE whiff on one in specific that the Phillies struggle to hit against to begin with... his Changeup. • His advanced metrics also show that since his debut in 25', he has been cooking in the MLB: 📈 75th percentile in BA - .208 📈 67th percentile in BB% - 7.5% 📈 85th percentile in Chase% - 34.3% 📈 71st percentile in Whiff% - 27.5% 📈 88th percentile in K% - 28.3% 📈 71st percentile in Contact% - 72.5% 📈 75th percentile in SwStr% - 13.4% 📈 67th percentile in xBA - .229 📈 76th percentile in xwOBA - .286 • Now while the percentiles don't look insanely good or insanely high, we have to remember that he is playing the Phillies and their numbers line up right around his except for one major stat... BA (.217 vs LHP). There are always targets that we are looking at ⬇️ 🔴 Kyle Schwarber - 31.3% (20.8% Chase) 🔴 Bryce Harper - 20.3% (37.4% Chase) 🔴 Adolis Garcia - 25% (28.5% Chase) 🔴 Edmundo Sosa - 22.4% (47.6% Chase) 🔴 Brandon Marsh - 33.3% (44.8% Chase) • That alone is 5 batters and all we need is 6 to clear this line so roughly 1 strikeout per inning is doable for Messick, especially noting the form he is in currently. But there are other guys who have the chance to strikeout who have low K% against lefties and those are JT Realmuto (36.6% Chase), Trea Turner (25% Chase), and Alec Bohm (27.6% Chase) Best Odds: -154 DK Turn on the 🛎️ so you don't miss any plays! 📊: @propsmadness

@ThePropAnt 🔥🔥

✅ THIRD QUARTER CASHHH, let me know if you tailed this one

@joshsreads 💔

Brent Rooker fucking sucks now what happened man

@BetSheWins Nice wins! 🔥

BANG✅ Sweaty with 5 asts entering the fourth, but we take it! Subs cashed 2 more assists unders: ✅Diggins under 6.5 assists ✅Cardoo under 2.5 assists All powered by @propsmadness’ potential assist data. Get 25% off when you use code BSW: propsmadness.com/?ref=BSW

Lay the Wood 🪵 🔴 James Wood o1.5 HRR (-122 DraftKings) • .428 xwOBA, .625 xSLG, 99th percentile barrel rate vs RHP • Grant Holmes allowing a 50.7% hard-hit rate, .465 xSLG vs LHB • Wood vs fastballs: .408 BA, .816 SLG. Holmes throws the heater 39% of the time 💣 📊 @PropsMadness (Code GUMP for 25% off) ❤️🔄💬 if you’re tailing!