Cook The Books@CookTheBooks12
CASH IT @PvbBets
2026 Results (+42.73u) 11.01% ROI🟢
Chase Burns ‘O’ 6.5 K’s -131✅
Analysis Posted in Discord
When Burns is on, the matchup almost doesn't even matter. You often know early on in his start if you'll cash the over or not. To start the season, he's cleared this mark in 4 of his 6 starts, including one against this Pirates team. He's had 7, 9, 2, 4, 8 and 9 K's. The underlying stats remain excellent:
xERA: 3.37 (72nd percentile) 🔥
Chase %: 32.0% (69th) 🔥
Whiff %: 34.1% (92nd) 🔥
K%: 28.5% (82nd) 🔥
Pittsburgh remains a solid matchup too, ranking 12th in K-rate vs RHP this season. Being in division, Burns has seen this lineup twice as a starter over the last year:
8/8/25: 10 K's
3/30/26: 7 K's
He's also been more K happy on the road too. Dating back to last season, with at least 70 pitches thrown, he's had 7+ K's in all 5 away starts (7, 10, 10, 9 and 8). Even if we look at all of his starts with 70+ pitches, he's cleared the 6.5 line in 10 of 12. In his (short) career, he has a 34.0% K-rate on the road compared to a 31.5% at home. All signs point to a nice day here!