Quant Beckman

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Quant Beckman

Quant Beckman

@quantbeckman

Quantitative Researcher | Algorithmic Trading Newsletter: https://t.co/dMLUqhqn8z Platform: https://t.co/2WMqDkiRbt

Katılım Temmuz 2019
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Quant Beckman
Quant Beckman@quantbeckman·
Hey guys! I’ve just released a refined, compact edition of one of my newsletter series on the foundations of quantitative trading. It is a theoretical introduction designed for aspiring quants who are beginning to explore the field. The focus is on first principles, method, and the conceptual framework behind quantitative trading. Link in the comments. I hope you enjoy it.
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Financial Systems Engineering
@quantbeckman The key implication for financial modeling is identifiability. If multiple latent state configurations produce the same observed prices, calibration alone cannot recover the true market state. You need structural constraints or additional data beyond price history.
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Quant Beckman
Quant Beckman@quantbeckman·
Not all variables belong to the same category. Indeed, multiple distinct configurations of latent states can generate the exact same likelihood for the observed price series.
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Jeffrey Q Testicle
Jeffrey Q Testicle@q_testicle·
@quantbeckman why are there so many people writing whole papers treating vix as a tradeable asset.. these people are presumably getting masters degrees or phds why is the bar so low
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Quant Beckman
Quant Beckman@quantbeckman·
The four-asset dataset is described as AGG, DBC, VIX, and VTI. AGG, DBC, and VTI are tradable exchange-traded products, while the VIX itself is an index. An investor cant earn the daily spot return of the VIX by buying or shorting it. So the ETF experiment may include returns that could never have been obtained by an actual portfolio.
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Quant Beckman@quantbeckman

The argument is that human traders prefer round quantities while algorithms dont. The authors concede that aggregate data cannot distinguish the mechanisms exposed. Therefore, the evidence supports calendar-synchronized or automated-looking activity, but it doesnt prove that a specific class of trading algorithms generates the effect.

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Quant Beckman
Quant Beckman@quantbeckman·
Trend-follow only when macro data starts changing the expected policy path. Build a policy-pressure index from inflation, labor, growth, and central-bank-sensitive releases, with each surprise mapped to hawkish or dovish rate pressure. Then wait for an inflection in that pressure and confirm that rates futures have started moving in the same direction.
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Quant Beckman@quantbeckman

FX carry earns the interest-rate differential by holding higher-yielding currencies against lower-yielding currencies. The trade works best when volatility stays contained because carry can be wiped out by sharp moves.

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Quant Beckman
Quant Beckman@quantbeckman·
The argument is that human traders prefer round quantities while algorithms dont. The authors concede that aggregate data cannot distinguish the mechanisms exposed. Therefore, the evidence supports calendar-synchronized or automated-looking activity, but it doesnt prove that a specific class of trading algorithms generates the effect.
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Quant Beckman@quantbeckman

70.4% return and 3.15 Sharpe ratio? With only 3 stocks, 1 test year and no fees!? 😟

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Quant Beckman
Quant Beckman@quantbeckman·
I saw a tweet today saying that people rarely talk about research on X. Honestly, they talk about research all the time. What they rarely talk about is what isn’t actually research. For example, plugging an AI into a couple of platforms and getting it to generate a great-looking backtest isn’t research. It’s overfitting. Then reality hits, and the systems being sold perform nothing like those backtests. I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with doing it, but let’s not call it research, you need something more to call it like that.
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Quant Beckman@quantbeckman

You know, that situation where you're talking to a buddy and just can't see past the end of your nose. Has that ever happened to you? Getting into an absurd argument like that?

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DeflatedTrader
DeflatedTrader@deflatedtrader·
@quantbeckman The subtle part: the overfitting cost is paid even by the features you reject. Every candidate you tried and discarded was a test, and enough tests guarantee something looks great by luck. The backtest only shows the winner, never the hundred auditions behind it
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Quant Beckman
Quant Beckman@quantbeckman·
📄[WITH CODE] Feature selection: Wrapper-based feature selection methods📄
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Quant Beckman
Quant Beckman@quantbeckman·
70.4% return and 3.15 Sharpe ratio? With only 3 stocks, 1 test year and no fees!? 😟
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Quant Beckman
Quant Beckman@quantbeckman·
Oh, did I ask for that!? I doubt I asked for anything 😁 You are right that total option net supply is zero. That does not mean dealers are net zero. With participant-tagged buy/sell and opening/closing data, dealer inventory can be measured much more directly. By the way, remember to stop following a fraudster. Nothing could be more absurd than that. I’ll help you with it later, don’t worry.
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gotthetwitts
gotthetwitts@nogoodkwant·
@quantbeckman You don’t have net positions. You understand that market net is 0? What you got is a party's _modeled_ gex ... and that model rests on unverifiable positions assumptions Reminder: asking your readers to believe you got alpha proof-less is the hallmark of grift.
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Quant Beckman
Quant Beckman@quantbeckman·
Hey everyone, it's vacation time! So I thought, why not build an agent that makes decisions based on GEX and VEX data?
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